Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05 — market analysis & odds
Final score: 4–1
Final score: Elversberg 4–1 FSV Mainz 05. Pre-match, Clauseground's combined estimate was Elversberg 29%, the draw 25%, FSV Mainz 05 46%. Elversberg won — an outcome we carried at 29%. The combined estimate leaned FSV Mainz 05 at 46%; the most likely single result did not occur.
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Pre-match model vs market
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
Evidence and inputs
- Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
- Rest: Elversberg 6d, FSV Mainz 05 6d since last match.
- League scoring baseline: 3.1 goals/game.
- Home advantage applied for Elversberg.
- Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.
Questions
Who won Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Elversberg won: the final score was Elversberg 4–1 FSV Mainz 05. Clauseground's pre-match blend carried that outcome at 29%. That probability described uncertainty; it did not promise the result.
How does Clauseground predict Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.