League intelligence
Bundesliga
No-vig market probabilities, an independent model, and best-price tracking across the Bundesliga.
This hub tracks each Bundesliga fixture with the bookmaker margin stripped out, giving a no-vig market probability alongside a separate, independently built statistical model. For every match it also shows the best price we have collected, with the venue and the timestamp it was seen, so you can judge how current the number is. Where the model and the market disagree, the AI analyst walks through the figures and the uncertainty behind them — a prompt to investigate, not a signal to bet.
On the board
- Bayern Munich vs 1. FC Köln88% · 7% · 5%
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs TSG Hoffenheim40% · 25% · 36%
- Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig18% · 21% · 61%
- Elversberg vs SC Freiburg27% · 26% · 48%
- Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn76% · 13% · 11%
- Borussia Monchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund20% · 22% · 58%
- FC Schalke 04 vs VfB Stuttgart24% · 23% · 53%
- Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 0535% · 25% · 40%
Recent results
Current value
Both teams to score — No
Both teams to score+2.6pp differencereference market3.50 at Betfred
no-vig 3.219 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference
reference market estimate 31%model 31% · market 31% (model vs market +0.0pp)estimate 31% · price implies 29% · +9.2% expected return if the estimate is right
No-vig reference market puts Both teams to score — No at 31%; best collected price 3.50 at betfred_uk implies 29% — a +2.6pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
priced
SC Paderborn
Match result+1.4pp differencereference market10.50 at Unibet
no-vig 9.1740 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference
reference market estimate 11%model 14% · market 11% (model vs market +2.7pp)estimate 11% · price implies 10% · +14.5% expected return if the estimate is right
No-vig reference market puts SC Paderborn at 11%; best collected price 10.50 at unibet_se implies 10% — a +1.4pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
priced
Under 2.5
Totals+0.7pp differencereference market2.56 at Betsson
no-vig 2.523 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference
reference market estimate 40%model 39% · market 40% (model vs market −0.6pp)estimate 40% · price implies 39% · +1.8% expected return if the estimate is right
No-vig reference market puts Under 2.5 at 40%; best collected price 2.56 at betsson implies 39% — a +0.7pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
priced
Augsburg
Match result+0.8pp differencereference market4.50 at Betfred
no-vig 4.3414 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference
reference market estimate 23%model 31% · market 23% (model vs market +8.2pp)estimate 23% · price implies 22% · +3.8% expected return if the estimate is right
No-vig reference market puts Augsburg at 23%; best collected price 4.50 at betfred_uk implies 22% — a +0.8pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
priced
Hamburger SV
Match result+0.7pp differencereference market4.90 at Unibet
no-vig 4.7440 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference
reference market estimate 21%model 31% · market 21% (model vs market +9.8pp)estimate 21% · price implies 20% · +3.4% expected return if the estimate is right
No-vig reference market puts Hamburger SV at 21%; best collected price 4.90 at unibet_se implies 20% — a +0.7pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
priced
Draw
Match result+0.6pp differencereference market3.98 at Marathonbet
no-vig 3.8941 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference
reference market estimate 26%model 26% · market 26% (model vs market +0.4pp)estimate 26% · price implies 25% · +2.3% expected return if the estimate is right
No-vig reference market puts Draw at 26%; best collected price 3.98 at marathonbet implies 25% — a +0.6pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
priced
A difference between the model and the market is something to investigate, not a guaranteed edge. Check the venue price and timestamp before acting.
What to know about Bundesliga markets
A high-scoring reputation
The Bundesliga has long been one of Europe's more attacking divisions, averaging around 3.1 goals per match. That backdrop makes over/under and other totals markets a natural focus, and it is the context the model reads a totals line against.
Familiar names at the top
The title picture has frequently been shaped by one dominant club, which tends to produce short-priced favourites in the biggest fixtures. Removing the margin matters most on those short prices, where the vig is easy to underestimate by eye.
Deep markets, uneven prices
As a major European league, headline Bundesliga matches carry deep, tightly priced markets, while lower-profile fixtures can show wider prices and more variation between books. That dispersion is why it is worth checking the best collected price and its timestamp, so you can judge how current the number is.
Best price ran 6.60% above average
Across 1,985 completed Bundesliga matches with a full closing price set, the best surveyed price was 6.60% higher than the market average for the same outcome (measured 11 August 2026). That is a property of the market, not a record of returns: the best price is an upper bound taken across every surveyed book, including ones that limit winning accounts and quotes that were never simultaneously obtainable. Clauseground does not currently claim a proven historical edge.
Bundesliga questions
How does the model handle Bundesliga totals?
The model produces its own probability for each totals line independently of the bookmaker, then sits it alongside the no-vig market probability for the same line. Given the league's roughly 3.1 goals per match, totals are a common point of interest, but a gap between model and market is a question to look into rather than an answer. The analyst can explain what is driving each side of the comparison.
Why does margin removal matter on Bundesliga favourites?
The Bundesliga often features heavy favourites in its marquee fixtures, and at short prices the bookmaker's margin is proportionally harder to see by eye. Stripping the vig out gives a cleaner market probability to compare against the model. Neither figure is a forecast to act on without your own judgement, and passing on a match is always a valid outcome.
What do the price and timestamp tell me?
Each fixture shows the best price we have collected, the venue it came from, and when it was recorded. Odds move, so the timestamp lets you judge how stale or current that number is before you verify it yourself. Clauseground does not place bets or guarantee that a price is still available.
Clauseground is decision support, not tips. It shows the market view, an independent model view, and the available price with its source and timestamp — so you can judge Bundesliga prices for yourself. Read the methodology, the public performance framework and what line shopping is worth, or browse all leagues.
Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.