League intelligence
Bundesliga
No-vig market probabilities, an independent model, and best-price tracking across the Bundesliga.
This hub tracks each Bundesliga fixture with the bookmaker margin stripped out, giving a no-vig market probability alongside a separate, independently built statistical model. For every match it also shows the best price we have collected, with the venue and the timestamp it was seen, so you can judge how current the number is. Where the model and the market disagree, the AI analyst walks through the figures and the uncertainty behind them — a prompt to investigate, not a signal to bet.
On the board
- Bayern Munich vs VfB Stuttgart72% · 15% · 13%
- 1. FC Köln vs TSG Hoffenheim36% · 26% · 38%
- RB Leipzig vs Borussia Monchengladbach62% · 21% · 18%
- Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt39% · 26% · 35%
- Elversberg vs Bayer Leverkusen19% · 21% · 60%
- FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn52% · 24% · 23%
- Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV69% · 18% · 13%
- SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen46% · 26% · 28%
Current value
SC Paderborn
Match result+2.7pp differenceThe best collected price implies about a 21% chance. Clauseground's combined estimate puts it at 23% — about 3 percentage points higher. Potential value, not a promise.
combined estimate 23%model 32% · market 21% (model vs market +10.9pp)0.9u @ ¼-Kelly+13.2% est. EV4.85 · MarathonbetCombined estimate puts SC Paderborn at 23%; best collected price 4.85 at marathonbet implies 21% — a +2.7pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Hamburger SV
Match result+2.7pp differenceThe best collected price implies about a 11% chance. Clauseground's combined estimate puts it at 13% — about 3 percentage points higher. Potential value, not a promise.
combined estimate 13%model 18% · market 12% (model vs market +6.2pp)0.8u @ ¼-Kelly+26.0% est. EV9.50 · CoolbetCombined estimate puts Hamburger SV at 13%; best collected price 9.50 at coolbet implies 11% — a +2.7pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Elversberg
Match result+2.0pp differenceThe best collected price implies about a 17% chance. Clauseground's combined estimate puts it at 19% — about 2 percentage points higher. Potential value, not a promise.
combined estimate 19%model 21% · market 19% (model vs market +2.6pp)0.6u @ ¼-Kelly+11.3% est. EV5.75 · CoolbetCombined estimate puts Elversberg at 19%; best collected price 5.75 at coolbet implies 17% — a +2.0pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Eintracht Frankfurt
Match result+0.7pp differenceThe best collected price implies about a 34% chance. Clauseground's combined estimate puts it at 35% — about 1 percentage point higher. Potential value, not a promise.
combined estimate 35%model 41% · market 33% (model vs market +7.9pp)0.3u @ ¼-Kelly+2.1% est. EV2.92 · MarathonbetCombined estimate puts Eintracht Frankfurt at 35%; best collected price 2.92 at marathonbet implies 34% — a +0.7pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Draw
Match result+0.7pp differenceThe best collected price implies about a 25% chance. Clauseground's combined estimate puts it at 26% — about 1 percentage point higher. Potential value, not a promise.
combined estimate 26%model 26% · market 25% (model vs market +0.9pp)0.2u @ ¼-Kelly+2.8% est. EV4.00 · CoolbetCombined estimate puts Draw at 26%; best collected price 4.00 at coolbet implies 25% — a +0.7pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
A difference between the model and the market is something to investigate, not a guaranteed edge. Check the venue price and timestamp before acting.
What to know about Bundesliga markets
A high-scoring reputation
The Bundesliga has long been one of Europe's more attacking divisions, averaging around 3.1 goals per match. That backdrop makes over/under and other totals markets a natural focus, and it is the context the model reads a totals line against.
Familiar names at the top
The title picture has frequently been shaped by one dominant club, which tends to produce short-priced favourites in the biggest fixtures. Removing the margin matters most on those short prices, where the vig is easy to underestimate by eye.
Deep markets, uneven prices
As a major European league, headline Bundesliga matches carry deep, tightly priced markets, while lower-profile fixtures can show wider prices and more variation between books. That dispersion is why it is worth checking the best collected price and its timestamp, so you can judge how current the number is.
Bundesliga questions
How does the model handle Bundesliga totals?
The model produces its own probability for each totals line independently of the bookmaker, then sits it alongside the no-vig market probability for the same line. Given the league's roughly 3.1 goals per match, totals are a common point of interest, but a gap between model and market is a question to look into rather than an answer. The analyst can explain what is driving each side of the comparison.
Why does margin removal matter on Bundesliga favourites?
The Bundesliga often features heavy favourites in its marquee fixtures, and at short prices the bookmaker's margin is proportionally harder to see by eye. Stripping the vig out gives a cleaner market probability to compare against the model. Neither figure is a forecast to act on without your own judgement, and passing on a match is always a valid outcome.
What do the price and timestamp tell me?
Each fixture shows the best price we have collected, the venue it came from, and when it was recorded. Odds move, so the timestamp lets you judge how stale or current that number is before you verify it yourself. Clauseground does not place bets or guarantee that a price is still available.
Clauseground is decision support, not tips. It shows the market view, an independent model view, and the available price with its source and timestamp — so you can judge Bundesliga prices for yourself. Read the methodology and the public performance framework, or browse all leagues.
Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.