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Bundesliga

No-vig market probabilities, an independent model, and best-price tracking across the Bundesliga.

This hub tracks each Bundesliga fixture with the bookmaker margin stripped out, giving a no-vig market probability alongside a separate, independently built statistical model. For every match it also shows the best price we have collected, with the venue and the timestamp it was seen, so you can judge how current the number is. Where the model and the market disagree, the AI analyst walks through the figures and the uncertainty behind them — a prompt to investigate, not a signal to bet.

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Recent results

Current value

  1. Borussia Monchengladbach

    Match result+4.0pp differencecombined

    3.75 at Marathonbet

    combined fair 3.2626 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

    combined estimate 31%model 43% · market 27% (model vs market +16.5pp)

    estimate 31% · price implies 27% · +14.9% expected return if the estimate is right

    Combined estimate puts Borussia Monchengladbach at 31%; best collected price 3.75 at marathonbet implies 27% — a +4.0pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

    priced

  2. Hamburger SV

    Match result+4.3pp differencecombined

    7.00 at Coolbet

    combined fair 5.3740 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

    combined estimate 19%model 31% · market 14% (model vs market +17.1pp)

    estimate 19% · price implies 14% · +30.3% expected return if the estimate is right

    Combined estimate puts Hamburger SV at 19%; best collected price 7.00 at coolbet implies 14% — a +4.3pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

    priced

  3. Under 4.5

    Totals+2.3pp differencecombined

    1.88 at LeoVegas

    combined fair 1.8013 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

    combined estimate 56%model 68% · market 51% (model vs market +16.3pp)

    estimate 56% · price implies 53% · +4.4% expected return if the estimate is right

    Combined estimate puts Under 4.5 at 56%; best collected price 1.88 at leovegas_se implies 53% — a +2.3pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

    priced

  4. Draw

    Match result+3.9pp differencecombined

    5.60 at Unibet

    combined fair 4.5940 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

    combined estimate 22%model 26% · market 20% (model vs market +5.7pp)

    estimate 22% · price implies 18% · +22.0% expected return if the estimate is right

    Combined estimate puts Draw at 22%; best collected price 5.60 at unibet_nl implies 18% — a +3.9pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

    priced

  5. Draw

    Match result+3.2pp differencecombined

    7.50 at Betfred

    combined fair 6.0424 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

    combined estimate 17%model 20% · market 15% (model vs market +4.8pp)

    estimate 17% · price implies 13% · +24.1% expected return if the estimate is right

    Combined estimate puts Draw at 17%; best collected price 7.50 at betfred_uk implies 13% — a +3.2pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

    priced

  6. Werder Bremen

    Match result+3.1pp differencecombined

    8.80 at NordicBet

    combined fair 6.9240 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

    combined estimate 14%model 18% · market 13% (model vs market +4.4pp)

    estimate 14% · price implies 11% · +27.2% expected return if the estimate is right

    Combined estimate puts Werder Bremen at 14%; best collected price 8.80 at nordicbet implies 11% — a +3.1pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

    priced

A difference between the model and the market is something to investigate, not a guaranteed edge. Check the venue price and timestamp before acting.

What to know about Bundesliga markets

A high-scoring reputation

The Bundesliga has long been one of Europe's more attacking divisions, averaging around 3.1 goals per match. That backdrop makes over/under and other totals markets a natural focus, and it is the context the model reads a totals line against.

Familiar names at the top

The title picture has frequently been shaped by one dominant club, which tends to produce short-priced favourites in the biggest fixtures. Removing the margin matters most on those short prices, where the vig is easy to underestimate by eye.

Deep markets, uneven prices

As a major European league, headline Bundesliga matches carry deep, tightly priced markets, while lower-profile fixtures can show wider prices and more variation between books. That dispersion is why it is worth checking the best collected price and its timestamp, so you can judge how current the number is.

Best price ran 6.60% above average

Across 1,985 completed Bundesliga matches with a full closing price set, the best surveyed price was 6.60% higher than the market average for the same outcome (measured 11 August 2026). That is a property of the market, not a record of returns: the best price is an upper bound taken across every surveyed book, including ones that limit winning accounts and quotes that were never simultaneously obtainable. Clauseground does not currently claim a proven historical edge.

Bundesliga questions

How does the model handle Bundesliga totals?

The model produces its own probability for each totals line independently of the bookmaker, then sits it alongside the no-vig market probability for the same line. Given the league's roughly 3.1 goals per match, totals are a common point of interest, but a gap between model and market is a question to look into rather than an answer. The analyst can explain what is driving each side of the comparison.

Why does margin removal matter on Bundesliga favourites?

The Bundesliga often features heavy favourites in its marquee fixtures, and at short prices the bookmaker's margin is proportionally harder to see by eye. Stripping the vig out gives a cleaner market probability to compare against the model. Neither figure is a forecast to act on without your own judgement, and passing on a match is always a valid outcome.

What do the price and timestamp tell me?

Each fixture shows the best price we have collected, the venue it came from, and when it was recorded. Odds move, so the timestamp lets you judge how stale or current that number is before you verify it yourself. Clauseground does not place bets or guarantee that a price is still available.

Clauseground is decision support, not tips. It shows the market view, an independent model view, and the available price with its source and timestamp — so you can judge Bundesliga prices for yourself. Read the methodology, the public performance framework and what line shopping is worth, or browse all leagues.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.