What each Clauseground number means.

Clauseground can ingest fixture details, results, team ratings, venue context, sportsbook odds, supported exchange or prediction-market quotes, and selected live-match data. Weather and injury availability are best-effort contextual inputs in live-data mode. Not every category is available for every competition.

Coverage is data-dependent. The public Markets page is the source of truth for competitions and fixtures currently available. The product does not promise one universal update interval or complete venue coverage.

Decimal odds are converted to raw implied probability using 1 ÷ odds. For a complete market, those probabilities usually sum to more than 100%. Clauseground currently removes that margin with the multiplicative method, dividing each raw probability by the total.

The current implementation checks designated reference books in configured order and uses the first one with every required outcome. It does not yet build a liquidity-weighted consensus across every venue. Public copy therefore describes this output as the reference market view, not a universal market consensus.

The core is an independent Poisson scoring model with a Dixon-Coles correction for common low-scoring outcomes. Expected goals are based on team attack and defence strengths, the competition scoring baseline, and home or neutral-venue context.

The engine can also apply bounded modifiers for rest, altitude, venue type, weather, and injury availability when supported data is present. Missing context falls back to neutral treatment; absence of an adjustment must not be read as confirmation that no real-world effect exists.

The default run uses 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations per fixture. It stores the run count, engine version, inputs, timestamp, and resulting probabilities. The same scoring distribution supports 1X2, totals, both-teams-to-score, and selected knockout or player markets where the required inputs exist.

More simulations reduce sampling noise; they do not remove modelling error. A precisely calculated probability can still be wrong because its assumptions or inputs are wrong.

Clauseground keeps the reference-market and model probabilities visible, then can calculate a combined estimate. The current weights are fixed by market type and lean toward the market on major match markets. They are not dynamically changed by lineup confirmation, time to kickoff, or a hidden AI judgment.

Combined estimates are useful decision inputs, but they are not described as no-vig market probabilities. If only one source exists, the output may fall back to that source and should be read with its label.

The model–market difference is model probability minus no-vig reference-market probability. It describes disagreement only. For a specific venue price, Clauseground compares the combined estimate with the price-implied probability and calculates expected return per unit staked.

The best available price means the most favorable usable price in the latest collected set after data-hygiene rules. It is not a claim that every venue was searched or that the displayed price is still available. Check the venue before acting.

Kelly sizing converts an estimated advantage and a price into a bankroll fraction. Clauseground applies a conservative fractional-Kelly approach and additional caps because small probability errors can create large sizing errors, especially on longshots.

Sizing output is mathematical context, not personal advice. It cannot know your finances, limits, legal status, or tolerance for loss. A result of zero — or a decision to pass despite a positive calculation — is valid.

Odds snapshots and model runs are timestamped. Public surfaces show the latest available relevant update, but upstream delays, failed polling, event-status lag, and moved prices can still make a number stale. Clauseground is not presented as a guaranteed real-time feed.

Each probability should retain a market, model, or combined label. Product text that lacks a source or timestamp should not be treated as a current numeric claim.

The system includes Brier-score, log-loss, closing-line-value, and return calculations. Historical development and retro-simulation records can help test the machinery, but they are not clean forward evidence that the model beats the market.

Headline performance will use only predictions recorded before kickoff under a stated model version and inclusion policy. The current public status is insufficient clean-forward data. See the public performance framework.

The analyst retrieves structured Clauseground data, calls the deterministic tools, compares outputs, and explains them in natural language. It can help identify uncertainty, ask whether a price has moved, and translate technical concepts.

It does not create probabilities by intuition, guarantee winners, know every piece of team news, place bets, or replace your judgment. If a numeric answer cannot be traced to a product tool or stored record, it should not be presented as fact.

• The current market view can come from one designated complete reference book rather than a multi-book consensus.
• Team ratings and contextual modifiers can lag real changes in team strength.
• Lineups and player availability are not complete across all competitions.
• Weather and injury enrichment are best-effort and can be absent.
• Venue prices can move between collection and display.
• Model-market disagreement is not proof of an exploitable advantage.
• The clean-forward public performance sample is not yet sufficient for a performance claim.