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Public performance

Evidence before claims.

Clauseground does not currently claim a proven historical edge. This page states the publication rules now, so the forward record cannot be rewritten around later results.

Predictions made between Nov 5, 00:00 UTC and Nov 12, 00:00 UTC are counted in neither record. That gap is the deployment window, and it is deliberate: a prediction counted under the wrong configuration would misstate which one produced it, so these are left out rather than attributed.

Current configuration — collecting record

Record opens Nov 12, 00:00 UTC; predictions made before it are excluded.

Engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares · blend 100/0 sharp/engine (h2h; 100/0 totals; 100/0 BTTS) · club priors of Jul 23, 2026

Current clean-forward status

Insufficient verified data for a headline result

The current record is collecting predictions. The scored scoreboard (hit rate, ROI, Brier, calibration) publishes automatically once at least 50 predictions have been scored — below that, the confidence intervals span nearly the full range, so a headline would present noise as a result. Nothing here is simulated or back-filled.

Existing World Cup operational and development records are excluded from headline performance — they may include testing, retro-simulation, or changing model versions that do not meet the forward-publication rules below.

Scored so far
0 / 50
headline publishes at the threshold
Waiting
0
forward picks
First result
—
expected
Competitions
0
covered

Previous configuration — closed record

Predictions recorded from Jul 23, 05:36 UTC up to Nov 5, 00:00 UTC, exclusive.

Engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares · blend 75/25 sharp/engine (h2h; 75/25 totals; 65/35 BTTS) · club priors of Jul 23, 2026 · figures settled Nov 8, 22:17 UTC

Previous clean-forward record

2,103 forward picks scored, since Jul 23, 2026

Hit rate
31.4%
660–1443 W–L
ROI / unit
−3.5%
flat 1u at best price · 95% −10.9% to 3.9% — spans zero, so not yet distinguishable from break-even
Brier
0.197
market at the price taken: 0.196 (same rows)
Log loss
0.580
lower is better
Avg edge
+1.3pp
estimate − raw 1/best price
Closing line value
−0.2pp
n=2055 · 95% −0.38 to −0.05pp · 44% beat the close
Pending
72
awaiting results · 1 on postponed fixtures

Scored on the published selections only — those with a positive edge at publication — so this reads the calibration of our picks, not of the model. Selecting on a positive edge pushes estimates above outcomes, and that gap is part of the record.

Reliability of published estimates in ten equal-width bins; n sums to the scored total.
PredictedActualΔ95% CIn
8%5%−3pp1–17%40
16%16%−0pp12–21%252
25%22%−3pp20–25%785
35%28%−6pp23–34%297
46%47%+1pp42–52%362
54%48%−6pp42–53%303
64%64%+0pp50–75%55
73%89%+16pp56–98%9
All bins2103

Scored against regulation results for the cleanly-resolvable markets (match result, totals, both teams to score). ROI assumes a flat one-unit stake at the best price recorded at publication. Intervals are ±2 standard errors; a return whose interval spans zero is not evidence of a profit or of a loss, and at these sample sizes it usually does. 32 further predictions resolved as void — 9 because the match was postponed by more than 72 hours after the prediction was published (the usual bookmaker rule), 23 because a totals line landed exactly on the total — and are excluded from every figure above. Every prediction is recorded at the first board rebuild that evaluated it and is published when its edge was positive at that moment; it is never re-recorded at a later price.

Closing line value. Closing line value compares the price we published with the de-vigged closing price of the sharp reference market for the same selection — same match, market, line and outcome. Positive means the published price was better than the closing fair line. CLV = closing fair probability − implied probability of the price taken (1 ÷ the best collected decimal odds at publication), in probability points. The closing reference is the de-vigged close of the first designated sharp book (Pinnacle, then Betfair Exchange (EU), then William Hill) with a complete, coherent set of prices for that market and line, captured within 12 hours of kickoff. Measured over 2,055 of 2,103 scored predictions (reference: Pinnacle 1,804 · William Hill 251); the remaining 48 had no usable close and are excluded rather than counted as zero. Predictions were published a median 7.1 days before kickoff, so the comparison is between an early price and a close typically days later. It measures the price, not the outcome. Positive closing line value is not a claim of profit, and a record that beats the close can still lose. How it is computed.

Corrections. Sep 10, 2026: 3,471 closing-line values re-graded, 182 left without a usable close (closing line value redefined: sharp-book de-vigged close vs the price taken) · Aug 3, 2026: 34 closing-line values re-graded (line-matching defect, PR #65). No prediction, price or edge was changed by any correction; only what was later learned about the close.

By market
GroupnW–LROI ±2SEBrierCLV ±2SE (n)
Match result1,361317–1044−4.0% ±10.60.175−0.25pp ±0.20 (1357)
Totals513228–285−4.8% ±9.70.239+0.04pp ±0.36 (469)
Both teams to score229115–114+2.6% ±14.10.235−0.49pp ±0.57 (229)
Total2,103660–1443−3.5% ±7.40.197−0.21pp ±0.17 (2055)
By month of kickoff (UTC)
GroupnW–LROI ±2SEBrierCLV ±2SE (n)
Jul 2026193–16−72.1% ±30.40.247−1.62pp ±1.26 (15)
Aug 2026515170–345−0.8% ±14.80.208−0.28pp ±0.37 (501)
Sep 2026619203–416+4.6% ±14.30.202+0.05pp ±0.32 (599)
Oct 2026681200–481−5.6% ±13.40.191−0.22pp ±0.25 (675)
Nov 202626984–185−17.0% ±16.90.179−0.60pp ±0.49 (265)
Total2,103660–1443−3.5% ±7.40.197−0.21pp ±0.17 (2055)
By competition
GroupnW–LROI ±2SEBrierCLV ±2SE (n)
Major League Soccer475161–314+0.9% ±15.10.206−0.33pp ±0.35 (465)
EFL Championship30994–215−2.6% ±19.00.205−0.46pp ±0.37 (309)
Serie A19985–114+6.3% ±20.70.204+0.18pp ±0.63 (198)
La Liga19551–144−21.1% ±20.80.186−1.24pp ±0.60 (186)
UEFA Champions League19265–127−10.0% ±26.00.164−0.03pp ±0.76 (183)
Eredivisie18950–139+3.3% ±29.90.196−0.20pp ±0.41 (177)
Liga MX18963–126+13.3% ±28.00.229−0.23pp ±0.55 (185)
Premier League12937–92−6.2% ±29.20.180+0.71pp ±0.49 (129)
Ligue 111931–88−9.0% ±31.20.193+0.09pp ±0.66 (119)
Bundesliga10723–84−31.8% ±28.70.173+0.32pp ±0.58 (104)
Total2,103660–1443−3.5% ±7.40.197−0.21pp ±0.17 (2055)
Record over time — cumulative through each kickoff week (UTC)
Week ofScoredCumulativeROI ±2SECLV ±2SE (n)
2026-07-201616−77.7% ±30.5−2.27pp ±1.24 (12)
2026-07-277187+0.6% ±34.9−1.01pp ±0.66 (82)
2026-08-0318105−4.9% ±30.1−0.78pp ±0.58 (99)
2026-08-1088193−8.5% ±22.1−0.62pp ±0.55 (185)
2026-08-17165358−1.8% ±17.8−0.33pp ±0.45 (348)
2026-08-24160518−0.8% ±14.7−0.25pp ±0.36 (501)
2026-08-31174692−0.1% ±12.9−0.17pp ±0.31 (674)
2026-09-07252944+2.7% ±11.2−0.01pp ±0.27 (915)
2026-09-141721116−1.2% ±10.1−0.12pp ±0.25 (1078)
2026-09-21351151+1.1% ±10.2−0.12pp ±0.24 (1113)
2026-09-2861157+0.8% ±10.1−0.12pp ±0.24 (1119)
2026-10-051071264−1.2% ±9.6−0.07pp ±0.22 (1226)
2026-10-122361500−1.8% ±9.0−0.05pp ±0.20 (1461)
2026-10-191961696−1.2% ±8.5−0.12pp ±0.19 (1652)
2026-10-261861882−2.0% ±8.0−0.16pp ±0.17 (1838)
2026-11-022212103−3.5% ±7.4−0.21pp ±0.17 (2055)

Each row re-scores every prediction with a kickoff up to the end of that week, so the last row is the headline. Intervals narrow as the sample grows; a cumulative figure that crosses zero from week to week is the sample being small, not the process changing.

Scored, row by row

The most recent resolved predictions

The last 60 published predictions to resolve, newest kickoff first — the row exactly as it was recorded, then the score it was scored against, the sharp reference’s closing probability and the closing line value derived from it. Every row above is one of these.

Resolved published predictions, newest first.
PublishedMatchPickEstimateImpliedScoreResultCloseCLV
Oct 27, 09:11 UTC
Atlético Madrid v Barcelona
La Liga · Nov 8
Under 2.5
Totals · 3.26
34.3%30.7%1–2lost28.3%−2.4pp
Oct 25, 22:30 UTC
Atlético Madrid v Barcelona
La Liga · Nov 8
Under 3.5
Totals · 1.98
53.5%50.5%1–2won47.4%−3.1pp
Oct 25, 21:10 UTC
Atlético Madrid v Barcelona
La Liga · Nov 8
BTTS: No
Both teams to score · 3.00
35.8%33.3%1–2lost28.5%−4.9pp
Oct 25, 21:10 UTC
Atlético Madrid v Barcelona
La Liga · Nov 8
Draw
Match result · 4.30
24.5%23.3%1–2lost22.0%−1.3pp
Oct 25, 21:10 UTC
Atlético Madrid v Barcelona
La Liga · Nov 8
Atlético Madrid
Match result · 3.88
29.2%25.8%1–2lost27.5%+1.8pp
Oct 26, 09:50 UTC
RC Lens v Marseille
Ligue 1 · Nov 8
Under 2.5
Totals · 2.75
36.5%36.4%1–2lost43.7%+7.3pp
Oct 25, 21:10 UTC
RC Lens v Marseille
Ligue 1 · Nov 8
BTTS: No
Both teams to score · 2.88
35.4%34.7%1–2lost37.4%+2.7pp
Oct 25, 20:30 UTC
RC Lens v Marseille
Ligue 1 · Nov 8
RC Lens
Match result · 2.15
47.5%46.5%1–2lost43.7%−2.8pp
Oct 25, 16:30 UTC
FC Utrecht v NEC Nijmegen
Eredivisie · Nov 8
Draw
Match result · 4.00
25.9%25.0%2–3lost24.2%−0.8pp
Oct 25, 20:50 UTC
TSG Hoffenheim v FC Schalke 04
Bundesliga · Nov 8
FC Schalke 04
Match result · 5.90
17.3%16.9%2–1lost16.4%−0.5pp
Oct 25, 20:50 UTC
TSG Hoffenheim v FC Schalke 04
Bundesliga · Nov 8
Under 2.5
Totals · 3.10
32.6%32.3%2–1lost37.5%+5.2pp
Oct 25, 21:10 UTC
Villarreal v Getafe
La Liga · Nov 8
Villarreal
Match result · 1.62
64.0%61.7%2–0won62.4%+0.7pp
Nov 1, 12:50 UTC
Inter Milan v Como
Serie A · Nov 8
BTTS: No
Both teams to score · 2.62
39.1%38.2%2–0won33.0%−5.2pp
Nov 1, 11:10 UTC
Inter Milan v Como
Serie A · Nov 8
Como
Match result · 4.50
23.2%22.2%2–0lost29.8%+7.6pp
Nov 1, 11:10 UTC
Inter Milan v Como
Serie A · Nov 8
Inter Milan
Match result · 1.85
54.4%54.1%2–0won46.2%−7.9pp
Oct 25, 20:30 UTC
Le Mans FC v AS Monaco
Ligue 1 · Nov 8
Le Mans FC
Match result · 4.40
24.9%22.7%1–1lost17.2%−5.5pp
Oct 25, 20:30 UTC
Angers v Nice
Ligue 1 · Nov 8
Draw
Match result · 3.80
27.0%26.3%0–2lost26.2%−0.2pp
Oct 25, 20:30 UTC
Angers v Nice
Ligue 1 · Nov 8
Angers
Match result · 3.50
30.7%28.6%0–2lost24.8%−3.8pp
Nov 1, 16:50 UTC
AZ Alkmaar v Groningen
Eredivisie · Nov 8
Under 3.5
Totals · 2.00
53.1%50.0%4–3lost——
Oct 29, 16:10 UTC
AZ Alkmaar v Groningen
Eredivisie · Nov 8
BTTS: No
Both teams to score · 2.75
36.4%36.4%4–3lost39.1%+2.8pp
Oct 27, 08:51 UTC
AZ Alkmaar v Groningen
Eredivisie · Nov 8
Under 2.5
Totals · 3.14
32.9%31.8%4–3lost33.3%+1.5pp
Oct 25, 15:50 UTC
AZ Alkmaar v Groningen
Eredivisie · Nov 8
Groningen
Match result · 5.25
20.0%19.0%4–3lost16.4%−2.6pp
Oct 25, 15:50 UTC
AZ Alkmaar v Groningen
Eredivisie · Nov 8
Draw
Match result · 4.80
21.5%20.8%4–3lost19.9%−1.0pp
Oct 25, 15:50 UTC
SC Cambuur v PSV Eindhoven
Eredivisie · Nov 8
SC Cambuur
Match result · 8.00
12.6%12.5%2–5lost15.8%+3.3pp
Oct 25, 21:10 UTC
Real Sociedad v Rayo Vallecano
La Liga · Nov 8
Draw
Match result · 3.92
25.7%25.5%1–0lost25.1%−0.4pp
Oct 25, 21:10 UTC
Real Sociedad v Rayo Vallecano
La Liga · Nov 8
Under 2.5
Totals · 2.20
47.2%45.5%1–0won43.7%−1.7pp
Oct 25, 21:10 UTC
Real Sociedad v Rayo Vallecano
La Liga · Nov 8
Rayo Vallecano
Match result · 4.30
24.3%23.3%1–0lost22.6%−0.6pp
Nov 1, 12:50 UTC
Genoa v AC Milan
Serie A · Nov 8
BTTS: Yes
Both teams to score · 1.91
53.9%52.4%1–2won50.6%−1.7pp
Nov 1, 11:10 UTC
Genoa v AC Milan
Serie A · Nov 8
Genoa
Match result · 5.00
20.5%20.0%1–2lost23.5%+3.5pp
Oct 24, 17:30 UTC
Sunderland v Chelsea
Premier League · Nov 8
Draw
Match result · 3.75
27.1%26.7%1–0lost27.5%+0.8pp
Nov 1, 14:50 UTC
FC Twente Enschede v Ajax
Eredivisie · Nov 8
Under 3.5
Totals · 1.87
54.3%53.5%2–2lost51.7%−1.8pp
Oct 29, 13:50 UTC
FC Twente Enschede v Ajax
Eredivisie · Nov 8
BTTS: No
Both teams to score · 3.25
32.1%30.8%2–2lost32.7%+1.9pp
Oct 27, 08:51 UTC
FC Twente Enschede v Ajax
Eredivisie · Nov 8
Under 2.5
Totals · 3.26
33.3%30.7%2–2lost32.7%+2.0pp
Oct 25, 21:10 UTC
Elche CF v Real Betis
La Liga · Nov 8
Draw
Match result · 3.96
25.6%25.3%0–2lost24.5%−0.8pp
Oct 25, 21:10 UTC
Elche CF v Real Betis
La Liga · Nov 8
Elche CF
Match result · 4.05
27.5%24.7%0–2lost23.5%−1.2pp
Nov 1, 11:10 UTC
Napoli v Lazio
Serie A · Nov 8
Napoli
Match result · 2.00
50.9%50.0%1–1lost46.0%−4.0pp
Oct 31, 19:50 UTC
Heerenveen v Feyenoord
Eredivisie · Nov 8
Under 3.5
Totals · 1.97
51.7%50.8%5–3lost50.0%−0.8pp
Oct 25, 16:50 UTC
Heerenveen v Feyenoord
Eredivisie · Nov 8
Heerenveen
Match result · 4.10
24.5%24.4%5–3won22.6%−1.8pp
Oct 25, 16:50 UTC
Heerenveen v Feyenoord
Eredivisie · Nov 8
Draw
Match result · 4.40
23.1%22.7%5–3lost21.8%−1.0pp
Nov 1, 04:10 UTC
Pumas v América
Liga MX · Nov 8
América
Match result · 2.17
46.2%46.1%2–2lost41.1%−4.9pp
Nov 1, 03:50 UTC
Toluca v Monterrey
Liga MX · Nov 8
Monterrey
Match result · 4.90
25.4%20.4%4–0lost20.7%+0.3pp
Nov 2, 01:50 UTC
Tigres v Cruz Azul
Liga MX · Nov 8
Tigres
Match result · 2.92
34.3%34.2%2–3lost26.5%−7.7pp
Nov 2, 03:50 UTC
Houston Dynamo v St. Louis City SC
Major League Soccer · Nov 8
Draw
Match result · 3.75
26.7%26.7%0–1lost27.7%+1.1pp
Nov 2, 03:10 UTC
Minnesota United FC v San Jose Earthquakes
Major League Soccer · Nov 8
BTTS: No
Both teams to score · 2.95
35.2%33.9%3–1lost33.8%−0.1pp
Nov 2, 02:10 UTC
Minnesota United FC v San Jose Earthquakes
Major League Soccer · Nov 8
San Jose Earthquakes
Match result · 4.00
31.0%25.0%3–1lost20.0%−5.0pp
Nov 1, 22:30 UTC
Austin FC v Portland Timbers
Major League Soccer · Nov 8
Portland Timbers
Match result · 2.06
49.7%48.5%0–2won55.8%+7.3pp
Nov 1, 22:30 UTC
Austin FC v Portland Timbers
Major League Soccer · Nov 8
Austin FC
Match result · 3.80
26.4%26.3%0–2lost22.6%−3.7pp
Nov 1, 22:30 UTC
Austin FC v Portland Timbers
Major League Soccer · Nov 8
Draw
Match result · 4.20
23.9%23.8%0–2lost21.6%−2.2pp
Nov 1, 03:10 UTC
FC Dallas v Colorado Rapids
Major League Soccer · Nov 8
Over 2.5
Totals · 1.63
61.4%61.3%3–1won54.7%−6.7pp
Nov 1, 02:50 UTC
FC Dallas v Colorado Rapids
Major League Soccer · Nov 8
Colorado Rapids
Match result · 3.70
27.7%27.0%3–1lost23.5%−3.5pp
Nov 1, 01:50 UTC
Real Salt Lake v LA Galaxy
Major League Soccer · Nov 8
BTTS: No
Both teams to score · 2.88
35.1%34.7%2–1lost32.2%−2.5pp
Nov 1, 00:50 UTC
Real Salt Lake v LA Galaxy
Major League Soccer · Nov 8
Under 3.5
Totals · 1.92
52.5%52.1%2–1won50.0%−2.1pp
Nov 1, 00:50 UTC
Real Salt Lake v LA Galaxy
Major League Soccer · Nov 8
LA Galaxy
Match result · 5.00
20.6%20.0%2–1lost21.3%+1.3pp
Nov 1, 00:50 UTC
Real Salt Lake v LA Galaxy
Major League Soccer · Nov 8
Real Salt Lake
Match result · 1.80
58.0%55.6%2–1won56.9%+1.3pp
Nov 2, 01:10 UTC
Seattle Sounders FC v Los Angeles FC
Major League Soccer · Nov 8
BTTS: No
Both teams to score · 2.55
39.2%39.2%2–1lost33.1%−6.1pp
Nov 2, 01:10 UTC
Seattle Sounders FC v Los Angeles FC
Major League Soccer · Nov 8
Draw
Match result · 3.85
26.3%26.0%2–1lost25.0%−0.9pp
Nov 2, 01:10 UTC
Seattle Sounders FC v Los Angeles FC
Major League Soccer · Nov 8
Los Angeles FC
Match result · 3.31
31.2%30.2%2–1lost28.2%−2.0pp
Nov 2, 01:10 UTC
Seattle Sounders FC v Los Angeles FC
Major League Soccer · Nov 8
Seattle Sounders FC
Match result · 2.38
42.5%42.0%2–1won46.8%+4.8pp
Nov 1, 00:50 UTC
San Diego FC v Sporting Kansas City
Major League Soccer · Nov 8
San Diego FC
Match result · 1.54
67.2%64.9%0–1lost57.2%−7.7pp
Nov 1, 22:30 UTC
Philadelphia Union v Toronto FC
Major League Soccer · Nov 7
Toronto FC
Match result · 7.00
21.1%14.3%4–1lost9.8%−4.5pp

Estimate is the combined market–model probability at publication; Implied is 1 ÷ the best collected price at that moment; Close is the de-vigged closing probability of the sharp reference (Pinnacle, then Betfair Exchange (EU), then William Hill); CLV is Close − Implied in probability points. A void row (a totals push) is listed but scored in no figure above.

What will qualify

  1. 01A prediction must be recorded before kickoff with its timestamp and model version.
  2. 02The price and source used for comparison must be identifiable.
  3. 03Voids, corrections, missing closes, and exclusions must remain visible.
  4. 04Results must be shown for the full eligible sample, not selected positive periods.
  5. 05Competition, market, model-version, and time-period breakdowns must reconcile to the total.

Metric definitions

Published predictions
The count of eligible, timestamped predictions in the selected view. Sample size appears beside every aggregate.
Brier score
A probability-error score. Lower is better, but it is meaningful only relative to the market, a baseline, and the same sample.
Calibration
Whether outcomes forecast near a given probability occur at roughly that rate over a sufficiently large sample.
Closing line value
Closing line value compares the price we published with the de-vigged closing price of the sharp reference market for the same selection — same match, market, line and outcome. Positive means the published price was better than the closing fair line. Missing closes are reported, never counted as zero.
Return on investment
Settled profit or loss divided by eligible stake under the published staking rule. It is volatile and not a forecast of future return.
Exclusions and corrections
Every excluded or corrected record needs a reason, timestamp, and unchanged audit trail in the public methodology.

What is not claimed

Historical performance does not guarantee future results. Positive CLV does not guarantee profit. A calibrated model can still lose frequently. Until a valid sample exists, “insufficient data” is the only responsible headline.

Read the full methodology for the current model and data limitations.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.