Public performance
Evidence before claims.
Clauseground does not currently claim a proven historical edge. This page states the publication rules now, so the forward record cannot be rewritten around later results.
Current clean-forward record
1,153 forward picks scored, since Jul 23, 2026
Engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares · blend 75/25 sharp/engine (65/35 BTTS) · club priors of Jul 23, 2026 · figures settled Sep 28, 03:17 UTC
Scored on the published selections only — those with a positive edge at publication — so this reads the calibration of our picks, not of the model. Selecting on a positive edge pushes estimates above outcomes, and that gap is part of the record.
| Predicted | Actual | Δ | 95% CI | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | 9% | +1pp | 3–28% | 22 |
| 16% | 20% | +4pp | 14–28% | 130 |
| 25% | 24% | −1pp | 20–28% | 433 |
| 35% | 27% | −8pp | 20–35% | 138 |
| 46% | 48% | +2pp | 41–55% | 207 |
| 54% | 45% | −9pp | 38–53% | 183 |
| 63% | 58% | −6pp | 41–73% | 33 |
| 72% | 86% | +13pp | 49–97% | 7 |
| All bins | 1153 | |||
Scored against regulation results for the cleanly-resolvable markets (match result, totals, both teams to score). ROI assumes a flat one-unit stake at the best price recorded at publication. Intervals are ±2 standard errors; a return whose interval spans zero is not evidence of a profit or of a loss, and at these sample sizes it usually does. 15 further predictions resolved as void — 1 because the match was postponed by more than 72 hours after the prediction was published (the usual bookmaker rule), 14 because a totals line landed exactly on the total — and are excluded from every figure above. Every prediction is recorded at the first board rebuild that evaluated it and is published when its edge was positive at that moment; it is never re-recorded at a later price.
Closing line value. Closing line value compares the price we published with the de-vigged closing price of the sharp reference market for the same selection — same match, market, line and outcome. Positive means the published price was better than the closing fair line. CLV = closing fair probability − implied probability of the price taken (1 ÷ the best collected decimal odds at publication), in probability points. The closing reference is the de-vigged close of the first designated sharp book (Pinnacle, then Betfair Exchange (EU), then William Hill) with a complete, coherent set of prices for that market and line, captured within 12 hours of kickoff. Measured over 1,115 of 1,153 scored predictions (reference: Pinnacle 999 · William Hill 116); the remaining 38 had no usable close and are excluded rather than counted as zero. Predictions were published a median 7.1 days before kickoff, so the comparison is between an early price and a close typically days later. It measures the price, not the outcome. Positive closing line value is not a claim of profit, and a record that beats the close can still lose. How it is computed.
Corrections. Sep 10, 2026: 3,471 closing-line values re-graded, 182 left without a usable close (closing line value redefined: sharp-book de-vigged close vs the price taken) · Aug 3, 2026: 34 closing-line values re-graded (line-matching defect, PR #65). No prediction, price or edge was changed by any correction; only what was later learned about the close.
| Group | n | W–L | ROI ±2SE | Brier | CLV ±2SE (n) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | 751 | 183–568 | +2.1% ±14.5 | 0.185 | −0.16pp ±0.29 (747) |
| Totals | 269 | 122–147 | −4.7% ±13.1 | 0.247 | −0.02pp ±0.54 (235) |
| Both teams to score | 133 | 71–62 | +5.4% ±17.8 | 0.237 | −0.06pp ±0.71 (133) |
| Total | 1,153 | 376–777 | +0.9% ±10.2 | 0.205 | −0.12pp ±0.24 (1115) |
| Group | n | W–L | ROI ±2SE | Brier | CLV ±2SE (n) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | 19 | 3–16 | −72.1% ±30.4 | 0.247 | −1.62pp ±1.26 (15) |
| Aug 2026 | 515 | 170–345 | −0.8% ±14.8 | 0.208 | −0.28pp ±0.37 (501) |
| Sep 2026 | 619 | 203–416 | +4.6% ±14.3 | 0.202 | +0.05pp ±0.32 (599) |
| Total | 1,153 | 376–777 | +0.9% ±10.2 | 0.205 | −0.12pp ±0.24 (1115) |
| Group | n | W–L | ROI ±2SE | Brier | CLV ±2SE (n) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Major League Soccer | 298 | 111–187 | +12.8% ±20.3 | 0.220 | −0.52pp ±0.45 (289) |
| EFL Championship | 129 | 44–85 | +12.2% ±31.6 | 0.212 | −0.10pp ±0.69 (129) |
| Liga MX | 128 | 36–92 | −2.7% ±34.9 | 0.213 | +0.11pp ±0.66 (124) |
| La Liga | 122 | 30–92 | −26.1% ±25.8 | 0.194 | −0.96pp ±0.88 (115) |
| Serie A | 118 | 50–68 | +12.4% ±28.6 | 0.217 | +0.53pp ±0.94 (117) |
| Eredivisie | 107 | 32–75 | +6.9% ±38.3 | 0.196 | −0.86pp ±0.58 (96) |
| Premier League | 77 | 25–52 | +0.6% ±38.1 | 0.188 | +1.01pp ±0.67 (77) |
| Ligue 1 | 65 | 21–44 | +17.4% ±48.1 | 0.216 | +0.48pp ±0.96 (65) |
| Bundesliga | 61 | 13–48 | −34.1% ±37.6 | 0.178 | +0.32pp ±0.80 (58) |
| UEFA Champions League | 48 | 14–34 | −43.1% ±26.2 | 0.144 | +0.43pp ±1.63 (45) |
| Total | 1,153 | 376–777 | +0.9% ±10.2 | 0.205 | −0.12pp ±0.24 (1115) |
| Week of | Scored | Cumulative | ROI ±2SE | CLV ±2SE (n) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | 16 | 16 | −77.7% ±30.5 | −2.27pp ±1.24 (12) |
| 2026-07-27 | 71 | 87 | +0.6% ±34.9 | −1.01pp ±0.66 (82) |
| 2026-08-03 | 18 | 105 | −4.9% ±30.1 | −0.78pp ±0.58 (99) |
| 2026-08-10 | 88 | 193 | −8.5% ±22.1 | −0.62pp ±0.55 (185) |
| 2026-08-17 | 165 | 358 | −1.8% ±17.8 | −0.33pp ±0.45 (348) |
| 2026-08-24 | 160 | 518 | −0.8% ±14.7 | −0.25pp ±0.36 (501) |
| 2026-08-31 | 174 | 692 | −0.1% ±12.9 | −0.17pp ±0.31 (674) |
| 2026-09-07 | 252 | 944 | +2.7% ±11.2 | −0.01pp ±0.27 (915) |
| 2026-09-14 | 172 | 1116 | −1.2% ±10.1 | −0.12pp ±0.25 (1078) |
| 2026-09-21 | 35 | 1151 | +1.1% ±10.2 | −0.12pp ±0.24 (1113) |
| 2026-09-28 | 2 | 1153 | +0.9% ±10.2 | −0.12pp ±0.24 (1115) |
Each row re-scores every prediction with a kickoff up to the end of that week, so the last row is the headline. Intervals narrow as the sample grows; a cumulative figure that crosses zero from week to week is the sample being small, not the process changing.
Scored, row by row
The most recent resolved predictions
The last 60 published predictions to resolve, newest kickoff first — the row exactly as it was recorded, then the score it was scored against, the sharp reference’s closing probability and the closing line value derived from it. Every row above is one of these.
| Published | Match | Pick | Estimate | Implied | Score | Result | Close | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21, 02:50 UTC | León v FC Juárez Liga MX · Sep 28 | FC Juárez Match result · 5.20 | 19.5% | 19.2% | 2–1 | lost | 15.2% | −4.0pp |
| Sep 21, 02:50 UTC | León v FC Juárez Liga MX · Sep 28 | Draw Match result · 4.30 | 24.0% | 23.3% | 2–1 | lost | 21.9% | −1.4pp |
| Sep 17, 10:50 UTC | Columbus Crew SC v Inter Miami CF Major League Soccer · Sep 27 | Draw Match result · 4.20 | 23.9% | 23.8% | 2–1 | lost | 23.2% | −0.6pp |
| Sep 21, 00:50 UTC | Santos Laguna v Pachuca Liga MX · Sep 27 | Santos Laguna Match result · 3.45 | 29.9% | 29.0% | 1–0 | won | 38.7% | +9.7pp |
| Sep 23, 12:50 UTC | LA Galaxy v Colorado Rapids Major League Soccer · Sep 27 | Over 3 Totals · 2.20 | 48.4% | 45.5% | 3–2 | won | 47.8% | +2.4pp |
| Sep 20, 03:30 UTC | San Jose Earthquakes v Portland Timbers Major League Soccer · Sep 27 | Over 3.5 Totals · 1.99 | 50.5% | 50.3% | 3–1 | won | 52.4% | +2.2pp |
| Sep 17, 10:50 UTC | Vancouver Whitecaps FC v D.C. United Major League Soccer · Sep 27 | D.C. United Match result · 11.00 | 9.8% | 9.1% | 3–3 | lost | 9.8% | +0.7pp |
| Sep 17, 10:50 UTC | Vancouver Whitecaps FC v D.C. United Major League Soccer · Sep 27 | Draw Match result · 6.50 | 16.9% | 15.4% | 3–3 | won | 15.0% | −0.4pp |
| Sep 17, 10:50 UTC | San Jose Earthquakes v Portland Timbers Major League Soccer · Sep 27 | San Jose Earthquakes Match result · 1.95 | 51.5% | 51.3% | 3–1 | won | 47.6% | −3.6pp |
| Sep 17, 10:50 UTC | Vancouver Whitecaps FC v D.C. United Major League Soccer · Sep 27 | BTTS: Yes Both teams to score · 1.75 | 57.8% | 57.1% | 3–3 | won | 54.1% | −3.0pp |
| Sep 17, 10:50 UTC | Austin FC v San Diego FC Major League Soccer · Sep 27 | San Diego FC Match result · 2.90 | 35.4% | 34.5% | 3–3 | lost | 38.2% | +3.8pp |
| Sep 17, 10:50 UTC | Houston Dynamo v Sporting Kansas City Major League Soccer · Sep 27 | Sporting Kansas City Match result · 6.50 | 16.9% | 15.4% | 0–2 | won | 18.9% | +3.5pp |
| Sep 17, 10:50 UTC | Houston Dynamo v Sporting Kansas City Major League Soccer · Sep 27 | Draw Match result · 4.80 | 21.8% | 20.8% | 0–2 | lost | 22.2% | +1.4pp |
| Sep 17, 10:50 UTC | FC Dallas v Los Angeles FC Major League Soccer · Sep 27 | Draw Match result · 3.90 | 25.7% | 25.6% | 1–0 | lost | 28.5% | +2.9pp |
| Sep 17, 10:50 UTC | Seattle Sounders FC v Minnesota United FC Major League Soccer · Sep 27 | Draw Match result · 3.85 | 26.5% | 26.0% | 3–1 | lost | 25.3% | −0.7pp |
| Sep 17, 10:50 UTC | Houston Dynamo v Sporting Kansas City Major League Soccer · Sep 27 | BTTS: Yes Both teams to score · 1.73 | 58.8% | 57.8% | 0–2 | lost | 57.0% | −0.8pp |
| Sep 17, 10:30 UTC | Atlanta United FC v New York City FC Major League Soccer · Sep 26 | New York City FC Match result · 2.95 | 36.0% | 33.9% | 2–2 | lost | 35.7% | +1.8pp |
| Sep 17, 10:30 UTC | Atlanta United FC v New York City FC Major League Soccer · Sep 26 | Draw Match result · 3.75 | 26.8% | 26.7% | 2–2 | won | 25.9% | −0.7pp |
| Sep 17, 10:50 UTC | Charlotte FC v Chicago Fire Major League Soccer · Sep 26 | Chicago Fire Match result · 3.20 | 32.5% | 31.3% | 0–1 | won | 32.5% | +1.2pp |
| Sep 17, 10:50 UTC | Philadelphia Union v Orlando City SC Major League Soccer · Sep 26 | Orlando City SC Match result · 5.50 | 21.8% | 18.2% | 4–2 | lost | 20.9% | +2.7pp |
| Sep 17, 10:50 UTC | Charlotte FC v Chicago Fire Major League Soccer · Sep 26 | Draw Match result · 4.05 | 25.4% | 24.7% | 0–1 | lost | 25.3% | +0.6pp |
| Sep 17, 10:50 UTC | Philadelphia Union v Orlando City SC Major League Soccer · Sep 26 | Draw Match result · 5.10 | 21.7% | 19.6% | 4–2 | lost | 20.7% | +1.1pp |
| Sep 17, 10:30 UTC | CF Montreal v FC Cincinnati Major League Soccer · Sep 26 | BTTS: Yes Both teams to score · 1.40 | 71.8% | 71.4% | 3–1 | won | 67.9% | −3.6pp |
| Sep 21, 00:50 UTC | Cruz Azul v Toluca Liga MX · Sep 26 | Draw Match result · 3.60 | 28.2% | 27.8% | 3–3 | won | 28.4% | +0.6pp |
| Sep 21, 00:50 UTC | Cruz Azul v Toluca Liga MX · Sep 26 | Cruz Azul Match result · 2.75 | 37.9% | 36.4% | 3–3 | lost | 35.5% | −0.9pp |
| Sep 21, 00:50 UTC | Tijuana v Atlas Liga MX · Sep 26 | Atlas Match result · 3.99 | 25.5% | 25.1% | 2–3 | won | 28.8% | +3.7pp |
| Sep 20, 02:30 UTC | Atlante FC v Monterrey Liga MX · Sep 26 | BTTS: No Both teams to score · 2.45 | 41.2% | 40.8% | 4–2 | lost | 42.7% | +1.8pp |
| Sep 20, 01:50 UTC | Atlante FC v Monterrey Liga MX · Sep 26 | Monterrey Match result · 2.05 | 52.7% | 48.8% | 4–2 | lost | 42.3% | −6.5pp |
| Sep 17, 10:30 UTC | Seattle Sounders FC v Real Salt Lake Major League Soccer · Sep 24 | Real Salt Lake Match result · 3.38 | 30.5% | 29.6% | 2–0 | lost | 21.7% | −7.9pp |
| Sep 17, 10:30 UTC | Seattle Sounders FC v Real Salt Lake Major League Soccer · Sep 24 | Draw Match result · 3.90 | 26.2% | 25.6% | 2–0 | lost | 24.4% | −1.3pp |
| Sep 14, 14:30 UTC | Querétaro v León Liga MX · Sep 21 | Draw Match result · 3.60 | 27.8% | 27.8% | 1–1 | won | 27.6% | −0.2pp |
| Sep 14, 14:30 UTC | Querétaro v León Liga MX · Sep 21 | Under 2.5 Totals · 2.16 | 47.3% | 46.3% | 1–1 | won | 47.6% | +1.3pp |
| Sep 16, 01:50 UTC | Toluca v Santos Laguna Liga MX · Sep 21 | Over 3.5 Totals · 2.01 | 50.2% | 49.8% | 2–3 | won | 50.6% | +0.9pp |
| Sep 14, 14:30 UTC | Toluca v Santos Laguna Liga MX · Sep 21 | Santos Laguna Match result · 11.50 | 11.0% | 8.7% | 2–3 | won | 7.6% | −1.1pp |
| Sep 14, 14:30 UTC | Toluca v Santos Laguna Liga MX · Sep 21 | Draw Match result · 6.50 | 16.9% | 15.4% | 2–3 | lost | 13.0% | −2.4pp |
| Sep 14, 14:30 UTC | Toluca v Santos Laguna Liga MX · Sep 21 | Under 2.5 Totals · 3.05 | 33.1% | 32.8% | 2–3 | lost | 29.5% | −3.2pp |
| Sep 14, 14:30 UTC | Toluca v Santos Laguna Liga MX · Sep 21 | BTTS: Yes Both teams to score · 1.85 | 54.6% | 54.1% | 2–3 | won | 53.4% | −0.6pp |
| Sep 13, 20:50 UTC | Inter Miami CF v San Diego FC Major League Soccer · Sep 20 | Draw Match result · 5.00 | 20.2% | 20.0% | 2–2 | won | 17.3% | −2.7pp |
| Sep 13, 20:50 UTC | Inter Miami CF v San Diego FC Major League Soccer · Sep 20 | San Diego FC Match result · 5.90 | 19.9% | 16.9% | 2–2 | lost | 12.2% | −4.7pp |
| Sep 13, 17:30 UTC | Valencia v Real Sociedad La Liga · Sep 20 | Draw Match result · 3.54 | 28.4% | 28.2% | 2–3 | lost | 28.9% | +0.6pp |
| Sep 6, 18:51 UTC | AC Milan v Lecce Serie A · Sep 20 | Lecce Match result · 12.00 | 11.0% | 8.3% | 3–0 | lost | 6.6% | −1.7pp |
| Sep 6, 18:51 UTC | AC Milan v Lecce Serie A · Sep 20 | BTTS: Yes Both teams to score · 2.38 | 47.0% | 42.0% | 3–0 | lost | 42.7% | +0.7pp |
| Sep 6, 18:51 UTC | AC Milan v Lecce Serie A · Sep 20 | Draw Match result · 5.70 | 19.8% | 17.5% | 3–0 | lost | 15.0% | −2.6pp |
| Sep 6, 15:31 UTC | Marseille v Paris Saint Germain Ligue 1 · Sep 20 | Draw Match result · 4.33 | 23.7% | 23.1% | 1–2 | lost | 18.2% | −4.9pp |
| Sep 20, 13:50 UTC | SC Paderborn v TSG Hoffenheim Bundesliga · Sep 20 | Under 3.5 Totals · 1.94 | 53.1% | 51.5% | 3–1 | lost | 50.9% | −0.7pp |
| Sep 13, 17:30 UTC | Deportivo La Coruña v Real Betis La Liga · Sep 20 | Real Betis Match result · 2.65 | 38.7% | 37.7% | 1–1 | lost | 49.0% | +11.3pp |
| Sep 6, 18:51 UTC | Juventus v Atalanta BC Serie A · Sep 20 | Atalanta BC Match result · 4.60 | 23.9% | 21.7% | 2–0 | lost | 17.0% | −4.7pp |
| Sep 6, 18:51 UTC | Juventus v Atalanta BC Serie A · Sep 20 | BTTS: Yes Both teams to score · 1.80 | 57.2% | 55.6% | 2–0 | lost | 51.9% | −3.6pp |
| Sep 6, 18:51 UTC | Juventus v Atalanta BC Serie A · Sep 20 | Draw Match result · 3.90 | 25.9% | 25.6% | 2–0 | lost | 24.3% | −1.4pp |
| Sep 6, 17:31 UTC | FC Schalke 04 v Elversberg Bundesliga · Sep 20 | Elversberg Match result · 4.50 | 23.0% | 22.2% | 0–0 | lost | 25.4% | +3.2pp |
| Sep 6, 15:31 UTC | Nice v Lille Ligue 1 · Sep 20 | Draw Match result · 3.60 | 28.1% | 27.8% | 2–1 | lost | 27.8% | +0.0pp |
| Sep 6, 18:31 UTC | NEC Nijmegen v Go Ahead Eagles Eredivisie · Sep 20 | Draw Match result · 5.00 | 20.1% | 20.0% | 1–1 | won | 24.0% | +4.0pp |
| Sep 20, 05:30 UTC | Atlético Madrid v Real Madrid La Liga · Sep 20 | Under 3 Totals · 2.15 | 47.4% | 46.5% | 2–1 | void | 46.9% | +0.4pp |
| Sep 13, 17:30 UTC | Atlético Madrid v Real Madrid La Liga · Sep 20 | Draw Match result · 4.00 | 26.0% | 25.0% | 2–1 | lost | 24.9% | −0.1pp |
| Sep 6, 19:31 UTC | Bayer Leverkusen v RB Leipzig Bundesliga · Sep 20 | Over 3.5 Totals · 2.05 | 50.5% | 48.8% | 2–0 | lost | 50.3% | +1.5pp |
| Sep 6, 17:31 UTC | Bayer Leverkusen v RB Leipzig Bundesliga · Sep 20 | Draw Match result · 4.50 | 22.9% | 22.2% | 2–0 | lost | 22.3% | +0.0pp |
| Sep 20, 12:50 UTC | Frosinone v Como Serie A · Sep 20 | Under 3.5 Totals · 1.93 | 54.9% | 51.8% | 2–0 | won | 50.5% | −1.3pp |
| Sep 6, 18:51 UTC | Frosinone v Como Serie A · Sep 20 | Draw Match result · 4.30 | 24.8% | 23.3% | 2–0 | lost | 19.5% | −3.7pp |
| Sep 6, 18:51 UTC | Frosinone v Como Serie A · Sep 20 | Frosinone Match result · 5.10 | 25.4% | 19.6% | 2–0 | won | 15.1% | −4.5pp |
| Sep 6, 18:51 UTC | Parma v Genoa Serie A · Sep 20 | BTTS: Yes Both teams to score · 2.15 | 49.0% | 46.5% | 2–1 | won | 46.8% | +0.3pp |
Estimate is the combined market–model probability at publication; Implied is 1 ÷ the best collected price at that moment; Close is the de-vigged closing probability of the sharp reference (Pinnacle, then Betfair Exchange (EU), then William Hill); CLV is Close − Implied in probability points. A void row (a totals push) is listed but scored in no figure above.
What will qualify
- 01A prediction must be recorded before kickoff with its timestamp and model version.
- 02The price and source used for comparison must be identifiable.
- 03Voids, corrections, missing closes, and exclusions must remain visible.
- 04Results must be shown for the full eligible sample, not selected positive periods.
- 05Competition, market, model-version, and time-period breakdowns must reconcile to the total.
Metric definitions
- Published predictions
- The count of eligible, timestamped predictions in the selected view. Sample size appears beside every aggregate.
- Brier score
- A probability-error score. Lower is better, but it is meaningful only relative to the market, a baseline, and the same sample.
- Calibration
- Whether outcomes forecast near a given probability occur at roughly that rate over a sufficiently large sample.
- Closing line value
- Closing line value compares the price we published with the de-vigged closing price of the sharp reference market for the same selection — same match, market, line and outcome. Positive means the published price was better than the closing fair line. Missing closes are reported, never counted as zero.
- Return on investment
- Settled profit or loss divided by eligible stake under the published staking rule. It is volatile and not a forecast of future return.
- Exclusions and corrections
- Every excluded or corrected record needs a reason, timestamp, and unchanged audit trail in the public methodology.
What is not claimed
Historical performance does not guarantee future results. Positive CLV does not guarantee profit. A calibrated model can still lose frequently. Until a valid sample exists, “insufficient data” is the only responsible headline.
Read the full methodology for the current model and data limitations.
Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.