SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen— market analysis & odds
Read this match in three steps
Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
SC Freiburg
46% means we estimate about 46 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: SC Freiburg 46% · Draw 26% · Werder Bremen 28%
2 · Understand the price
Werder Bremen
3.70 decimal odds
Tipico de · US +270
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 3.70 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+0.8 percentage points
Our estimate is 28%; the price implies 27%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
How our estimate compares with available prices
Probability comes first so different price formats remain comparable. Sportsbook odds and prediction-market contracts keep their own labels.
| Outcome | Our overall estimate | Most favorable price collected | Probability difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | 46% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 2.18 | 2.10 decimal oddsBetus · US +110price implies 48% | −1.7 percentage pointsThe price implies a higher chance than our estimate |
| Draw | 26% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 3.80 | 3.85 decimal oddsCoolbet · US +285price implies 26% | +0.3 percentage pointsPotential value to investigate |
| Werder Bremen | 28% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 3.60 | 3.70 decimal oddsTipico de · US +270price implies 27% | +0.8 percentage pointsPotential value to investigate |
A sportsbook number such as 5.00 is decimal odds, not dollars. Kalshi prices are shown as cent-denominated contracts. “Most favorable collected” means the best usable price in our latest set for the customer, not every venue worldwide. Check the venue before acting; prices, fees, and availability can change.
Evidence and inputs
- Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
- Rest: SC Freiburg 7d, Werder Bremen 7d since last match.
- League scoring baseline: 3.1 goals/game.
- Home advantage applied for SC Freiburg.
- Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.
Potential value to investigate
Werder Bremen
Match result+0.8pp differenceThe best collected price implies about a 27% chance. Clauseground's combined estimate puts it at 28% — about 1 percentage point higher. Potential value, not a promise.
Combined estimate puts Werder Bremen at 28%; best collected price 3.70 at tipico_de implies 27% — a +0.8pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Questions
Who is most likely to win SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes SC Freiburg the most likely outcome at 46%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 54%.
How does Clauseground predict SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.