FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn— market analysis & odds
Read this match in three steps
Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
FSV Mainz 05
53% means we estimate about 53 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: FSV Mainz 05 53% · Draw 24% · SC Paderborn 23%
2 · Understand the price
SC Paderborn
4.85 decimal odds
Marathonbet · US +385
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 4.85 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+2.7 percentage points
Our estimate is 23%; the price implies 21%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
How our estimate compares with available prices
Probability comes first so different price formats remain comparable. Sportsbook odds and prediction-market contracts keep their own labels.
| Outcome | Our overall estimate | Most favorable price collected | Probability difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 | 53% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 1.90 | 1.73 decimal oddsCoral · US −137price implies 58% | −5.3 percentage pointsThe price implies a higher chance than our estimate |
| Draw | 24% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 4.14 | 4.20 decimal oddsCoolbet · US +320price implies 24% | +0.4 percentage pointsPotential value to investigate |
| SC Paderborn | 23% chanceestimate-equivalent decimal 4.30 | 4.85 decimal oddsMarathonbet · US +385price implies 21% | +2.7 percentage pointsPotential value to investigate |
A sportsbook number such as 5.00 is decimal odds, not dollars. Kalshi prices are shown as cent-denominated contracts. “Most favorable collected” means the best usable price in our latest set for the customer, not every venue worldwide. Check the venue before acting; prices, fees, and availability can change.
Evidence and inputs
- Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
- Rest: FSV Mainz 05 7d, SC Paderborn 7d since last match.
- League scoring baseline: 3.1 goals/game.
- Home advantage applied for FSV Mainz 05.
- Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.
Potential value to investigate
SC Paderborn
Match result+2.7pp differenceThe best collected price implies about a 21% chance. Clauseground's combined estimate puts it at 23% — about 3 percentage points higher. Potential value, not a promise.
Combined estimate puts SC Paderborn at 23%; best collected price 4.85 at marathonbet implies 21% — a +2.7pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Questions
Who is most likely to win FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes FSV Mainz 05 the most likely outcome at 53%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 47%.
How does Clauseground predict FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.