Borussia Monchengladbach vs TSG Hoffenheim — market analysis & odds

Sun 18 Oct, 15:30 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
TSG Hoffenheim
46% means we estimate about 46 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Borussia Monchengladbach 31% · Draw 23% · TSG Hoffenheim 46%
2 · Understand the price
Borussia Monchengladbach
3.74 decimal odds
Marathonbet · US +274
collected 08:06 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 3.74 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+3.8 percentage points
Our estimate is 31%; the price implies 27%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 09:29 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Borussia Monchengladbachmodel 43% · market 27% (model vs market +16.1pp)

Drawmodel 26% · market 22% (model vs market +3.9pp)

TSG Hoffenheimmodel 31% · market 51% (model vs market −20.0pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

08:06 UTC

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 23 books quote this market · margin removed 5.3%

Borussia Monchengladbach
3.74 at Marathonbet
collected 08:06 UTC
no-vig reference 3.7726.5% implieddifference −0.2pp
Draw
4.30 at FanDuel
collected 08:06 UTC
no-vig reference 4.4622.4% implieddifference −0.9pp
TSG Hoffenheim
1.88 at Unibet
collected 08:06 UTC
no-vig reference 1.9651.1% implieddifference −2.1pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Borussia Monchengladbach	3.74Marathonbet	08:06 UTC	3.7726.5% implied	−0.2pp
Draw	4.30FanDuel	08:06 UTC	4.4622.4% implied	−0.9pp
TSG Hoffenheim	1.88Unibet	08:06 UTC	1.9651.1% implied	−2.1pp

Borussia Monchengladbach held from 3.58 to 3.58 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

Borussia MonchengladbachDrawTSG Hoffenheim

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 13–23 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.

Every book’s current price — 23 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Borussia Monchengladbach	Draw	TSG Hoffenheim	Collected
888sport	3.50	4.00	1.83	08:06 UTC
Betclic	3.32	3.83	1.79	08:06 UTC
Betfred	3.60	4.20	1.83	08:06 UTC
BetMGM	3.60	4.20	1.85	08:06 UTC
Betsson	3.65	4.00	1.85	08:06 UTC
Betway	3.50	4.20	1.80	08:06 UTC
Bovada	3.55	4.25	1.86	08:06 UTC
BoyleSports	3.20	4.00	1.75	08:06 UTC
Coral	3.60	4.20	1.85	08:06 UTC
FanDuel	3.50	Best price: 4.30	1.83	08:06 UTC
Ladbrokes	3.50	4.20	1.85	08:06 UTC
LeoVegas	3.35	3.90	1.85	08:06 UTC
Marathonbet	Best price: 3.74	4.20	1.86	08:06 UTC
NordicBet	3.70	4.05	1.85	08:06 UTC
Paddy Power	3.50	4.20	1.83	08:06 UTC
Pinnacle	3.58	4.24	1.86	08:06 UTC
Suprabets	3.45	4.00	1.81	08:06 UTC
Tipico	3.70	4.20	1.83	08:06 UTC
Unibet	3.40	4.00	Best price: 1.88	08:06 UTC
Unibet	3.10	3.80	1.82	08:06 UTC
William Hill	3.50	4.00	1.83	08:06 UTC
Winamax	3.15	3.85	1.78	08:06 UTC
Winamax	3.10	3.75	1.76	08:06 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 3.5

08:06 UTC

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 5 books quote this market · margin removed 4.1%

Over 3.5
2.00 at Bovada +1
collected 08:06 UTC
no-vig reference 2.0848.1% implieddifference −1.9pp
Under 3.5
1.85 at Pinnacle
collected 08:06 UTC
no-vig reference 1.9251.9% implieddifference −2.1pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 3.5	2.00Bovada +1	08:06 UTC	2.0848.1% implied	−1.9pp
Under 3.5	1.85Pinnacle	08:06 UTC	1.9251.9% implied	−2.1pp

Over 3.5 held from 2.00 to 2.00 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

Over 3.5Under 3.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3–5 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.

Every book’s current price — 5 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 3.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 3.5	Under 3.5	Collected
BetMGM	1.93	1.77	08:06 UTC
Bovada	Best price: 2.00	1.83	08:06 UTC
LeoVegas	1.91	1.77	08:06 UTC
Pinnacle	2.00	Best price: 1.85	08:06 UTC
Tipico	1.97	1.75	08:06 UTC

Total goals 2.5

08:06 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 3 books quote this market · margin removed 7.1%

Over 2.5
1.40 at Betsson +1
collected 08:06 UTC
no-vig reference 1.5066.7% implieddifference −4.8pp
Under 2.5
3.00 at Betsson
collected 08:06 UTC
no-vig reference 3.0033.3% implieddifference +0.0pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 2.5	1.40Betsson +1	08:06 UTC	1.5066.7% implied	−4.8pp
Under 2.5	3.00Betsson	08:06 UTC	3.0033.3% implied	+0.0pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.40 to 1.40 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Over 2.5Under 2.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 1–3 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 3 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Collected
Betsson	Best price: 1.40	Best price: 3.00	08:06 UTC
NordicBet	1.39	2.95	08:06 UTC
William Hill	1.40	2.80	08:06 UTC

Both teams to score

08:06 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 6 books quote this market · margin removed 6.2%

Both teams score
1.40 at Betfred +3
collected 08:06 UTC
no-vig reference 1.4967.3% implieddifference −4.1pp
Not both teams score
2.88 at Paddy Power +1
collected 08:06 UTC
no-vig reference 3.0632.7% implieddifference −2.0pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Both teams score	1.40Betfred +3	08:06 UTC	1.4967.3% implied	−4.1pp
Not both teams score	2.88Paddy Power +1	08:06 UTC	3.0632.7% implied	−2.0pp

Both teams score held from 1.40 to 1.40 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Both teams scoreNot both teams score

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3–6 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 6 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Both teams score	Not both teams score	Collected
Betfred	Best price: 1.40	2.75	08:06 UTC
Coral	1.40	2.80	08:06 UTC
Ladbrokes	1.40	2.75	08:06 UTC
LeoVegas	1.38	2.80	08:06 UTC
Paddy Power	1.36	Best price: 2.88	08:06 UTC
William Hill	1.40	2.88	08:06 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: Borussia Monchengladbach 29d, TSG Hoffenheim 28d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 3.1 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for Borussia Monchengladbach.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Borussia Monchengladbach

Match result+3.8pp differencecombined

3.74 at Marathonbet

combined fair 3.2726 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 31%model 43% · market 27% (model vs market +16.1pp)

estimate 31% · price implies 27% · +14.3% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Borussia Monchengladbach at 31%; best collected price 3.74 at marathonbet implies 27% — a +3.8pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 09:29 UTC

Under 2.5

Totals+1.4pp differencecombined

3.00 at Betsson

combined fair 2.883 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 35%model 39% · market 33% (model vs market +5.8pp)

estimate 35% · price implies 33% · +4.3% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Under 2.5 at 35%; best collected price 3.00 at betsson implies 33% — a +1.4pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 09:29 UTC

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Borussia Monchengladbach vs TSG Hoffenheim?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes TSG Hoffenheim the most likely outcome at 46%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 54%.

How does Clauseground predict Borussia Monchengladbach vs TSG Hoffenheim?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.