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Bundesliga

Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart — market analysis & odds

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

  1. 1 · Most likely result

    VfB Stuttgart

    49% means we estimate about 49 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.

    Overall: Hamburger SV 26% · Draw 25% · VfB Stuttgart 49%

  2. 2 · Understand the price

    Draw

    4.20 decimal odds

    Betfred uk · US +320

    collected

    This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 4.20 units total if successful.

  3. 3 · Compare probability

    +1.2 percentage points

    Our estimate is 25%; the price implies 24%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.

    Potential value to investigate

Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Hamburger SVmodel 33% · market 23% (model vs market +9.3pp)
Drawmodel 24% · market 25% (model vs market −0.8pp)
VfB Stuttgartmodel 43% · market 51% (model vs market −8.5pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 25 books quote this market · margin removed 5.4%

  • Hamburger SV

    3.82 at Marathonbet

    collected

    no-vig reference 4.0224.9% implieddifference −1.3pp

  • Draw

    4.20 at Betfred +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 4.0224.9% implieddifference +1.1pp

  • VfB Stuttgart

    1.92 at Betsson +2

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.9950.2% implieddifference −1.9pp

Hamburger SV shortened from 4.07 to 3.81 (−6.4%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

1.623.054.4825 Sept, 10 UTC28 Sept, 09 UTC
Hamburger SVDrawVfB Stuttgart
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 25 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 25 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
BookHamburger SVDrawVfB StuttgartCollected
888sport3.304.001.85
Betclic3.353.831.79
Betfred3.40Best price: 4.201.90
BetMGM3.704.001.85
Betsson3.553.85Best price: 1.92
Betway3.603.801.85
Bovada3.803.801.89
BoyleSports3.203.801.75
Coral3.704.001.85
DraftKings3.503.701.83
FanDuel3.404.201.83
Ladbrokes3.704.001.85
LeoVegas3.403.901.85
MarathonbetBest price: 3.823.841.92
NordicBet3.553.851.92
Paddy Power3.404.001.83
Pinnacle3.813.811.89
Sky Bet3.404.001.85
Suprabets3.633.621.86
Tipico3.804.001.85
Unibet3.404.001.85
Unibet3.103.801.80
William Hill3.304.001.85
Winamax3.203.851.78
Winamax3.103.751.74

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 3.5

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 5 books quote this market · margin removed 4.5%

  • Over 3.5

    1.95 at Bovada +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.0449.1% implieddifference −2.2pp

  • Under 3.5

    1.88 at Pinnacle

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.9650.9% implieddifference −2.3pp

Under 3.5 shortened from 1.89 to 1.88 (−0.5%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

1.871.921.9625 Sept, 10 UTC28 Sept, 09 UTC
Over 3.5Under 3.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 5 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 5 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 3.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 3.5Under 3.5Collected
BetMGM1.891.83
BovadaBest price: 1.951.87
LeoVegas1.831.83
Pinnacle1.95Best price: 1.88
Tipico1.851.87

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

no-vig from William Hill alone · 3 books quote this market · margin removed 6.9%

  • Over 2.5

    1.38 at Betsson

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.4568.8% implieddifference −3.7pp

  • Under 2.5

    3.10 at Betsson

    collected

    no-vig reference 3.2131.2% implieddifference −1.1pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.36 to 1.36 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.172.243.3125 Sept, 10 UTC28 Sept, 09 UTC
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 3 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 2.5Under 2.5Collected
BetssonBest price: 1.38Best price: 3.10
NordicBet1.373.05
William Hill1.363.00

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Both teams to score

no-vig from William Hill alone · 6 books quote this market · margin removed 5.9%

  • Both teams score

    1.40 at William Hill

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.4867.4% implieddifference −4.0pp

  • Not both teams score

    3.20 at Paddy Power

    collected

    no-vig reference 3.0732.6% implieddifference +1.3pp

Both teams score held from 1.40 to 1.40 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.182.303.4225 Sept, 10 UTC28 Sept, 09 UTC
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 6 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 6 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
BookBoth teams scoreNot both teams scoreCollected
Betfred1.363.00
Coral1.362.87
Ladbrokes1.362.87
LeoVegas1.352.95
Paddy Power1.30Best price: 3.20
William HillBest price: 1.402.90

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

  • Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
  • Rest: Hamburger SV 28d, VfB Stuttgart 28d since last match.
  • League scoring baseline: 3.1 goals/game.
  • Home advantage applied for Hamburger SV.
  • Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Draw

Match result+1.2pp differencecombined

4.20 at Betfred

combined fair 4.0025 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 25%model 24% · market 25% (model vs market −0.8pp)

estimate 25% · price implies 24% · +5.1% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Draw at 25%; best collected price 4.20 at betfred_uk implies 24% — a +1.2pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Hamburger SV

Match result+1.1pp differencecombined

4.07 at Pinnacle

combined fair 3.8925 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 26%model 33% · market 23% (model vs market +9.3pp)

estimate 26% · price implies 25% · +4.6% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Hamburger SV at 26%; best collected price 4.07 at pinnacle implies 25% — a +1.1pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes VfB Stuttgart the most likely outcome at 49%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 51%.

How does Clauseground predict Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.

Probabilities are labeled by source — market, model, or combined. How the model works →