Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund — market analysis & odds
Read this match in three steps
Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
Borussia Dortmund
55% means we estimate about 55 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Union Berlin 23% · Draw 22% · Borussia Dortmund 55%
2 · Understand the price
Union Berlin
4.55 decimal odds
Marathonbet · US +355
collected
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 4.55 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+0.8 percentage points
Our estimate is 23%; the price implies 22%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
Every market, every book, and how the price moved
For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.
Match result (1X2)
no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 24 books quote this market · margin removed 5.6%
Union Berlin
4.55 at Marathonbet
collected
no-vig reference 4.6921.3% implieddifference −0.6pp
Draw
4.50 at Tipico
collected
no-vig reference 4.5621.9% implieddifference −0.3pp
Borussia Dortmund
1.68 at Betsson +3
collected
no-vig reference 1.7656.7% implieddifference −2.8pp
Union Berlin held from 4.44 to 4.44 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.
Every book’s current price — 24 venues collected
| Book | Union Berlin | Draw | Borussia Dortmund | Collected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport | 4.20 | 4.20 | 1.65 | |
| Betclic | 4.10 | 3.95 | 1.61 | |
| BetMGM | 4.50 | 4.20 | 1.67 | |
| Betsson | 4.40 | 4.15 | Best price: 1.68 | |
| Betway | 4.20 | 4.20 | 1.61 | |
| Bovada | 4.45 | 4.30 | 1.68 | |
| BoyleSports | 4.00 | 4.20 | 1.60 | |
| Coral | 4.50 | 4.20 | 1.67 | |
| DraftKings | 4.10 | 4.00 | 1.62 | |
| FanDuel | 4.40 | 4.40 | 1.61 | |
| Ladbrokes | 4.50 | 4.20 | 1.67 | |
| LeoVegas | 4.20 | 4.10 | 1.64 | |
| Marathonbet | Best price: 4.55 | 4.40 | 1.68 | |
| NordicBet | 4.40 | 4.15 | 1.68 | |
| Paddy Power | 4.20 | 4.20 | 1.62 | |
| Pinnacle | 4.44 | 4.32 | 1.67 | |
| Sky Bet | 4.33 | 4.20 | 1.62 | |
| Suprabets | 4.20 | 4.10 | 1.63 | |
| Tipico | 4.40 | Best price: 4.50 | 1.65 | |
| Unibet | 4.25 | 4.20 | 1.67 | |
| Unibet | 3.70 | 3.90 | 1.62 | |
| William Hill | 4.20 | 4.20 | 1.65 | |
| Winamax | 4.10 | 3.90 | 1.58 | |
| Winamax | 4.00 | 3.80 | 1.56 |
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Total goals 2.5
no-vig from William Hill alone · 3 books quote this market · margin removed 6.5%
Over 2.5
1.47 at Betsson
collected
no-vig reference 1.5365.2% implieddifference −2.8pp
Under 2.5
2.71 at Betsson
collected
no-vig reference 2.8834.8% implieddifference −2.1pp
Under 2.5 shortened from 2.90 to 2.70 (−6.9%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.
Every book’s current price — 3 venues collected
| Book | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Collected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson | Best price: 1.47 | Best price: 2.71 | |
| NordicBet | 1.46 | 2.68 | |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 2.70 |
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Total goals 3.5
3 books pricing this market · no reference book quoted every outcome, so no no-vig price is shown
Over 3.5
2.05 at BetMGM +1
collected
no-vig reference —difference —
Under 3.5
1.70 at Tipico
collected
no-vig reference —difference —
No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.
Every book’s current price — 3 venues collected
| Book | Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | Collected |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | Best price: 2.05 | 1.69 | |
| LeoVegas | 2.02 | 1.68 | |
| Tipico | 2.05 | Best price: 1.70 |
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Both teams to score
no-vig from William Hill alone · 5 books quote this market · margin removed 7.6%
Both teams score
1.48 at Coral +1
collected
no-vig reference 1.5564.5% implieddifference −3.0pp
Not both teams score
2.62 at William Hill
collected
no-vig reference 2.8235.5% implieddifference −2.7pp
Both teams score held from 1.44 to 1.44 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.
Every book’s current price — 5 venues collected
| Book | Both teams score | Not both teams score | Collected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coral | Best price: 1.48 | 2.50 | |
| Ladbrokes | 1.48 | 2.50 | |
| LeoVegas | 1.45 | 2.55 | |
| Paddy Power | 1.44 | 2.60 | |
| William Hill | 1.44 | Best price: 2.62 |
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Evidence and inputs
- Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
- Rest: Union Berlin 29d, Borussia Dortmund 28d since last match.
- League scoring baseline: 3.1 goals/game.
- Home advantage applied for Union Berlin.
- Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.
Potential value to investigate
Union Berlin
Match result+0.8pp differencecombined4.55 at Marathonbet
combined fair 4.3824 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference
estimate 23% · price implies 22% · +3.8% expected return if the estimate is right
Combined estimate puts Union Berlin at 23%; best collected price 4.55 at marathonbet implies 22% — a +0.8pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
priced
Questions
Who is most likely to win Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Borussia Dortmund the most likely outcome at 55%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 45%.
How does Clauseground predict Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.