FC Zwolle vs SC Cambuur — market analysis & odds
Read this match in three steps
Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
FC Zwolle
49% means we estimate about 49 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: FC Zwolle 49% · Draw 24% · SC Cambuur 27%
2 · Understand the price
Draw
4.20 decimal odds
Coolbet · US +320
collected
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 4.20 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+0.4 percentage points
Our estimate is 24%; the price implies 24%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
Every market, every book, and how the price moved
For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.
Match result (1X2)
no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 26 books quote this market · margin removed 5.4%
FC Zwolle
1.96 at Unibet
collected
no-vig reference 1.9651.0% implieddifference −0.0pp
Draw
4.20 at Coolbet
collected
no-vig reference 4.2623.5% implieddifference −0.3pp
SC Cambuur
3.75 at Marathonbet
collected
no-vig reference 3.9225.5% implieddifference −1.2pp
FC Zwolle held from 1.86 to 1.86 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.
Every book’s current price — 26 venues collected
| Book | FC Zwolle | Draw | SC Cambuur | Collected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport | 1.85 | 3.60 | 3.50 | |
| Betclic | 1.82 | 3.63 | 3.18 | |
| BetRivers | 1.88 | 3.65 | 3.45 | |
| Betsson | 1.92 | 3.81 | 3.50 | |
| Bovada | 1.85 | 4.00 | 3.65 | |
| BoyleSports | 1.75 | 3.80 | 3.40 | |
| Codere | 1.92 | 3.80 | 3.35 | |
| Coolbet | 1.88 | Best price: 4.20 | 3.60 | |
| DraftKings | 1.87 | 3.90 | 3.45 | |
| Fanatics | 1.91 | 4.00 | 3.60 | |
| Grosvenor | 1.93 | 3.85 | 3.60 | |
| LeoVegas | 1.85 | 3.60 | 3.35 | |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.87 | 3.65 | 3.40 | |
| Marathonbet | 1.83 | 3.82 | Best price: 3.75 | |
| NordicBet | 1.95 | 3.85 | 3.55 | |
| Pinnacle | 1.86 | 4.04 | 3.72 | |
| PMU | 1.87 | 3.65 | 3.40 | |
| Tipico | 1.85 | 4.00 | 3.60 | |
| Unibet | Best price: 1.96 | 4.00 | 3.70 | |
| Unibet | 1.93 | 3.80 | 3.40 | |
| Unibet | 1.91 | 3.80 | 3.55 | |
| Unibet | 1.82 | 3.50 | 3.10 | |
| Virgin Bet | 1.87 | 3.65 | 3.40 | |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.60 | 3.50 | |
| Winamax | 1.84 | 3.70 | 3.10 | |
| Winamax | 1.80 | 3.60 | 3.05 |
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Total goals 3.5
8 books pricing this market · no reference book quoted every outcome, so no no-vig price is shown
Over 3.5
2.35 at Grosvenor +2
collected
no-vig reference —difference —
Under 3.5
1.65 at Tipico
collected
no-vig reference —difference —
No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.
Every book’s current price — 8 venues collected
| Book | Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | Collected |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetRivers | 2.33 | 1.56 | |
| Codere | 2.18 | 1.58 | |
| Grosvenor | Best price: 2.35 | 1.56 | |
| LeoVegas | 2.30 | 1.54 | |
| PMU | 2.20 | 1.47 | |
| Tipico | 2.15 | Best price: 1.65 | |
| Unibet | 2.35 | 1.56 | |
| Unibet | 2.35 | 1.56 |
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Total goals 2.5
no-vig from William Hill alone · 3 books quote this market · margin removed 7.5%
Over 2.5
1.50 at William Hill
collected
no-vig reference 1.6162.0% implieddifference −4.6pp
Under 2.5
2.56 at NordicBet
collected
no-vig reference 2.6338.0% implieddifference −1.1pp
Over 2.5 held from 1.50 to 1.50 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.
Every book’s current price — 3 venues collected
| Book | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Collected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson | 1.47 | 2.53 | |
| NordicBet | 1.48 | Best price: 2.56 | |
| William Hill | Best price: 1.50 | 2.45 |
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Both teams to score
no-vig from William Hill alone · 3 books quote this market · margin removed 9.4%
Both teams score
1.47 at LiveScore Bet +1
collected
no-vig reference 1.5863.5% implieddifference −4.6pp
Not both teams score
2.50 at William Hill
collected
no-vig reference 2.7436.5% implieddifference −3.5pp
Both teams score held from 1.44 to 1.44 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.
Every book’s current price — 3 venues collected
| Book | Both teams score | Not both teams score | Collected |
|---|---|---|---|
| LiveScore Bet | Best price: 1.47 | 2.45 | |
| Virgin Bet | 1.47 | 2.45 | |
| William Hill | 1.44 | Best price: 2.50 |
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Evidence and inputs
- Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
- Rest: FC Zwolle 23d, SC Cambuur 22d since last match.
- League scoring baseline: 3.2 goals/game.
- Home advantage applied for FC Zwolle.
- Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.
Potential value to investigate
No current price clears the publication threshold.
The market may be close to the estimate, the available data may be incomplete, or the price may have moved. Passing is a valid result.
Questions
Who is most likely to win FC Zwolle vs SC Cambuur?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes FC Zwolle the most likely outcome at 49%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 51%.
How does Clauseground predict FC Zwolle vs SC Cambuur?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.