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Eredivisie

A no-vig market probability, an independent model and best collected Eredivisie prices, compared.

This Eredivisie hub strips the bookmaker margin from a full reference market to show a no-vig market probability, then sets it beside a separate, independently built statistical model for each fixture. Alongside both, it lists the best price we have collected, tagged with the venue and the time it was seen, so you can judge how fresh the number is. An AI analyst explains the comparison in plain language — where model and market agree, where they diverge, and how much uncertainty sits behind each figure.

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On the board

Recent results

Current value

  1. NEC Nijmegen

    Match result+4.6pp differencecombined

    9.20 at Codere

    combined fair 6.4826 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

    combined estimate 15%model 24% · market 13% (model vs market +11.0pp)

    estimate 15% · price implies 11% · +41.9% expected return if the estimate is right

    Combined estimate puts NEC Nijmegen at 15%; best collected price 9.20 at codere_it implies 11% — a +4.6pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

    priced

  2. Fortuna Sittard

    Match result+2.9pp differencecombined

    6.75 at Coolbet

    combined fair 5.6626 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

    combined estimate 18%model 24% · market 16% (model vs market +8.6pp)

    estimate 18% · price implies 15% · +19.2% expected return if the estimate is right

    Combined estimate puts Fortuna Sittard at 18%; best collected price 6.75 at coolbet implies 15% — a +2.8pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

    priced

  3. Heerenveen

    Match result+2.8pp differencecombined

    11.50 at NordicBet

    combined fair 8.7026 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

    combined estimate 11%model 13% · market 11% (model vs market +2.3pp)

    estimate 11% · price implies 9% · +32.3% expected return if the estimate is right

    Combined estimate puts Heerenveen at 11%; best collected price 11.50 at nordicbet implies 9% — a +2.8pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

    priced

  4. Draw

    Match result+1.7pp differencecombined

    6.50 at Tipico

    combined fair 5.8426 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

    combined estimate 17%model 22% · market 16% (model vs market +6.0pp)

    estimate 17% · price implies 15% · +11.3% expected return if the estimate is right

    Combined estimate puts Draw at 17%; best collected price 6.50 at tipico_de implies 15% — a +1.7pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

    priced

  5. Groningen

    Match result+1.1pp differencecombined

    2.80 at Unibet

    combined fair 2.7126 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

    combined estimate 37%model 40% · market 36% (model vs market +4.3pp)

    estimate 37% · price implies 36% · +3.2% expected return if the estimate is right

    Combined estimate puts Groningen at 37%; best collected price 2.80 at unibet_nl implies 36% — a +1.1pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

    priced

  6. Draw

    Match result+0.9pp differencecombined

    5.25 at Coolbet

    combined fair 5.0226 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

    combined estimate 20%model 25% · market 18% (model vs market +6.7pp)

    estimate 20% · price implies 19% · +4.7% expected return if the estimate is right

    Combined estimate puts Draw at 20%; best collected price 5.25 at coolbet implies 19% — a +0.9pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

    priced

A difference between the model and the market is something to investigate, not a guaranteed edge. Check the venue price and timestamp before acting.

What to know about Eredivisie markets

Goals arrive often

Eredivisie matches have averaged roughly 3.2 goals each, a relatively high figure for a top division. That weighs most on totals, where a small difference between the model and the no-vig line can change how an over or under looks.

A top-heavy competition

The title has traditionally been contested by a small group of clubs, with Ajax, PSV and Feyenoord recurring at the top. Large quality gaps further down can produce very short favourites, where the margin removed from a price matters more.

Liquidity varies by fixture

Matches involving the traditional front-runners tend to attract deeper markets and tighter prices, while mid- and lower-table fixtures can be thinner. The best collected price, with its timestamp, helps you judge how firm the number on screen really is.

Best price ran 7.24% above average

Across 1,904 completed Eredivisie matches with a full closing price set, the best surveyed price was 7.24% higher than the market average for the same outcome (measured 11 August 2026). That is a property of the market, not a record of returns: the best price is an upper bound taken across every surveyed book, including ones that limit winning accounts and quotes that were never simultaneously obtainable. Clauseground does not currently claim a proven historical edge.

Eredivisie questions

How does the model treat Eredivisie totals?

The model estimates each fixture on its own and states its view as a probability, which you can set against the no-vig market line for the over or under. Given the league's tendency towards goals — around 3.2 per match on average — totals are a common place for the two figures to diverge. A gap is a prompt to investigate the reasons behind it, not a sign that either side is certain to land.

Why are some Eredivisie favourites priced so short?

Sizeable quality gaps between the leading clubs and the rest of the division can push match-winner prices very low. When a price is short, the bookmaker margin removed to reach the no-vig probability has a proportionally larger effect on the number you see. The comparison places that adjusted market probability next to the model's, so you can gauge how much of the price is margin and how much is implied chance.

Does a model-market gap mean I should bet?

No — a gap is a reason to look closer, not an instruction to stake. Clauseground is decision-support rather than a tip service, so you would weigh team news, venue and the uncertainty shown beside each figure before deciding anything. Often the sensible outcome is to pass and place nothing, since markets can be right for reasons a model does not capture. Please gamble responsibly; 18+.

Clauseground is decision support, not tips. It shows the market view, an independent model view, and the available price with its source and timestamp — so you can judge Eredivisie prices for yourself. Read the methodology, the public performance framework and what line shopping is worth, or browse all leagues.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.