Fortuna Sittard vs FC Twente Enschede — market analysis & odds

Sat 10 Oct, 18:00 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
FC Twente Enschede
62% means we estimate about 62 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Fortuna Sittard 18% · Draw 20% · FC Twente Enschede 62%
2 · Understand the price
Fortuna Sittard
6.75 decimal odds
Coolbet · US +575
collected 02:14 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 6.75 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+2.8 percentage points
Our estimate is 18%; the price implies 15%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 02:14 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Fortuna Sittardmodel 24% · market 16% (model vs market +8.4pp)

Drawmodel 25% · market 18% (model vs market +6.8pp)

FC Twente Enschedemodel 51% · market 66% (model vs market −15.2pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

02:14 UTC

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 26 books quote this market · margin removed 5.6%

Fortuna Sittard
6.75 at Coolbet
collected 02:14 UTC
no-vig reference 6.4515.5% implieddifference +0.7pp
Draw
5.25 at Coolbet +1
collected 02:14 UTC
no-vig reference 5.4818.3% implieddifference −0.8pp
FC Twente Enschede
1.45 at Unibet
collected 02:14 UTC
no-vig reference 1.5166.2% implieddifference −2.7pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Fortuna Sittard	6.75Coolbet	02:14 UTC	6.4515.5% implied	+0.7pp
Draw	5.25Coolbet +1	02:14 UTC	5.4818.3% implied	−0.8pp
FC Twente Enschede	1.45Unibet	02:14 UTC	1.5166.2% implied	−2.7pp

Fortuna Sittard held from 6.11 to 6.11 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

Fortuna SittardDrawFC Twente Enschede

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 25–26 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.

Every book’s current price — 26 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Fortuna Sittard	Draw	FC Twente Enschede	Collected
888sport	6.00	4.60	1.40	02:14 UTC
Betclic	5.40	4.65	1.35	02:14 UTC
BetRivers	5.80	4.70	1.40	02:14 UTC
Betsson	6.31	4.76	1.43	02:14 UTC
Bovada	6.00	5.15	1.42	02:14 UTC
BoyleSports	5.50	4.75	1.40	02:14 UTC
Codere	5.80	5.00	1.41	02:14 UTC
Coolbet	Best price: 6.75	Best price: 5.25	1.40	02:14 UTC
DraftKings	6.00	5.00	1.41	02:14 UTC
Fanatics	6.00	5.00	1.42	02:14 UTC
Grosvenor	6.25	5.10	1.43	02:14 UTC
LeoVegas	5.75	4.60	1.38	02:14 UTC
LiveScore Bet	5.80	4.70	1.40	02:14 UTC
Marathonbet	6.40	5.00	1.39	02:14 UTC
NordicBet	6.40	4.80	1.44	02:14 UTC
Pinnacle	6.11	5.19	1.43	02:14 UTC
PMU	5.80	4.70	1.40	02:14 UTC
Tipico	6.50	5.00	1.40	02:14 UTC
Unibet	6.25	5.25	Best price: 1.45	02:14 UTC
Unibet	6.10	4.90	1.42	02:14 UTC
Unibet	5.75	5.00	1.40	02:14 UTC
Unibet	5.20	4.45	1.35	02:14 UTC
Virgin Bet	5.80	4.70	1.40	02:14 UTC
William Hill	6.00	4.60	1.40	02:14 UTC
Winamax	5.20	4.80	1.36	02:14 UTC
Winamax	5.00	4.70	1.34	02:14 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 3.5

02:14 UTC

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 11 books quote this market · margin removed 4.5%

Over 3.5
1.95 at Bovada +1
collected 02:14 UTC
no-vig reference 2.0449.1% implieddifference −2.2pp
Under 3.5
1.89 at Coolbet
collected 02:14 UTC
no-vig reference 1.9650.9% implieddifference −2.0pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 3.5	1.95Bovada +1	02:14 UTC	2.0449.1% implied	−2.2pp
Under 3.5	1.89Coolbet	02:14 UTC	1.9650.9% implied	−2.0pp

Over 3.5 held from 1.95 to 1.95 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

Over 3.5Under 3.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 11 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.

Every book’s current price — 11 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 3.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 3.5	Under 3.5	Collected
BetRivers	1.88	1.85	02:14 UTC
Bovada	Best price: 1.95	1.87	02:14 UTC
Codere	1.86	1.81	02:14 UTC
Coolbet	1.89	Best price: 1.89	02:14 UTC
Grosvenor	1.89	1.85	02:14 UTC
LeoVegas	1.85	1.82	02:14 UTC
Pinnacle	1.95	1.88	02:14 UTC
PMU	1.78	1.74	02:14 UTC
Tipico	1.85	1.87	02:14 UTC
Unibet	1.89	1.85	02:14 UTC
Unibet	1.89	1.85	02:14 UTC

Total goals 2.5

02:14 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 3 books quote this market · margin removed 7.4%

Over 2.5
1.36 at NordicBet
collected 02:14 UTC
no-vig reference 1.4370.0% implieddifference −3.6pp
Under 2.5
3.10 at William Hill
collected 02:14 UTC
no-vig reference 3.3330.0% implieddifference −2.2pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 2.5	1.36NordicBet	02:14 UTC	1.4370.0% implied	−3.6pp
Under 2.5	3.10William Hill	02:14 UTC	3.3330.0% implied	−2.2pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.33 to 1.33 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Over 2.5Under 2.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 3 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Collected
Betsson	1.35	3.00	02:14 UTC
NordicBet	Best price: 1.36	3.04	02:14 UTC
William Hill	1.33	Best price: 3.10	02:14 UTC

Both teams to score

02:14 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 3 books quote this market · margin removed 8.3%

Both teams score
1.50 at William Hill
collected 02:14 UTC
no-vig reference 1.6361.5% implieddifference −5.1pp
Not both teams score
2.45 at LiveScore Bet +1
collected 02:14 UTC
no-vig reference 2.6038.5% implieddifference −2.4pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Both teams score	1.50William Hill	02:14 UTC	1.6361.5% implied	−5.1pp
Not both teams score	2.45LiveScore Bet +1	02:14 UTC	2.6038.5% implied	−2.4pp

Both teams score held from 1.50 to 1.50 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Both teams scoreNot both teams score

Every book’s current price — 3 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Both teams score	Not both teams score	Collected
LiveScore Bet	1.47	Best price: 2.45	02:14 UTC
Virgin Bet	1.47	2.45	02:14 UTC
William Hill	Best price: 1.50	2.40	02:14 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: Fortuna Sittard 21d, FC Twente Enschede 20d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 3.2 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for Fortuna Sittard.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Fortuna Sittard

Match result+2.8pp differencecombined

6.75 at Coolbet

combined fair 5.6826 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 18%model 24% · market 16% (model vs market +8.4pp)

estimate 18% · price implies 15% · +18.8% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Fortuna Sittard at 18%; best collected price 6.75 at coolbet implies 15% — a +2.8pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 02:10 UTC

Draw

Match result+0.9pp differencecombined

5.25 at Coolbet

combined fair 5.0126 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 20%model 25% · market 18% (model vs market +6.8pp)

estimate 20% · price implies 19% · +4.7% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Draw at 20%; best collected price 5.25 at coolbet implies 19% — a +0.9pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 02:10 UTC

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Fortuna Sittard vs FC Twente Enschede?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes FC Twente Enschede the most likely outcome at 62%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 38%.

How does Clauseground predict Fortuna Sittard vs FC Twente Enschede?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.