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PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen — market analysis & odds

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

  1. 1 · Most likely result

    PSV Eindhoven

    75% means we estimate about 75 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.

    Overall: PSV Eindhoven 75% · Draw 14% · Heerenveen 11%

  2. 2 · Understand the price

    Heerenveen

    11.50 decimal odds

    Nordicbet · US +1050

    collected

    This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 11.50 units total if successful.

  3. 3 · Compare probability

    +2.8 percentage points

    Our estimate is 11%; the price implies 9%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.

    Potential value to investigate

Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

PSV Eindhovenmodel 70% · market 76% (model vs market −6.0pp)
Drawmodel 17% · market 13% (model vs market +3.7pp)
Heerenveenmodel 13% · market 11% (model vs market +2.3pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 26 books quote this market · margin removed 5.8%

  • PSV Eindhoven

    1.25 at Unibet

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.3176.2% implieddifference −3.8pp

  • Draw

    7.50 at Tipico +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 7.7912.8% implieddifference −0.5pp

  • Heerenveen

    11.50 at NordicBet

    collected

    no-vig reference 9.1510.9% implieddifference +2.2pp

PSV Eindhoven held from 1.24 to 1.24 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

0.026.3812.7323 Sept, 20 UTC26 Sept, 19 UTC
PSV EindhovenDrawHeerenveen
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 25–26 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. 1 hour in the window had no collection at all and is drawn as a break in the line, never interpolated across. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 26 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
BookPSV EindhovenDrawHeerenveenCollected
888sport1.226.508.50
Betclic1.186.257.50
BetRivers1.216.509.00
Betsson1.236.0511.27
Bovada1.247.258.50
BoyleSports1.226.507.00
Codere1.227.008.60
Coolbet1.227.2511.00
DraftKings1.227.008.00
Fanatics1.247.009.00
Grosvenor1.237.0010.00
LeoVegas1.196.408.50
LiveScore Bet1.206.508.50
Marathonbet1.226.908.90
NordicBet1.246.20Best price: 11.50
Pinnacle1.247.368.65
PMU1.206.508.50
Tipico1.20Best price: 7.509.50
UnibetBest price: 1.257.5010.50
Unibet1.227.009.50
Unibet1.227.008.50
Unibet1.185.907.10
Virgin Bet1.206.508.50
William Hill1.226.508.50
Winamax1.186.507.00
Winamax1.176.256.75

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 4.5

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 11 books quote this market · margin removed 4.4%

  • Over 4.5

    2.03 at Coolbet

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.1047.7% implieddifference −1.6pp

  • Under 4.5

    1.83 at Bovada +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.9152.3% implieddifference −2.3pp

Over 4.5 held from 2.01 to 2.01 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

1.731.912.0823 Sept, 20 UTC26 Sept, 19 UTC
Over 4.5Under 4.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 9–11 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. 1 hour in the window had no collection at all and is drawn as a break in the line, never interpolated across. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 11 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 4.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 4.5Under 4.5Collected
BetRivers2.021.75
Bovada2.00Best price: 1.83
Codere1.961.72
CoolbetBest price: 2.031.76
Grosvenor2.021.76
LeoVegas1.971.72
Pinnacle2.011.83
PMU1.881.64
Tipico1.971.75
Unibet2.021.76
Unibet2.021.76

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

no-vig from William Hill alone · 3 books quote this market · margin removed 7.0%

  • Over 2.5

    1.18 at NordicBet

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.2381.3% implieddifference −3.4pp

  • Under 2.5

    5.00 at William Hill

    collected

    no-vig reference 5.3518.7% implieddifference −1.3pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.15 to 1.15 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

0.703.085.4623 Sept, 20 UTC26 Sept, 19 UTC
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. 1 hour in the window had no collection at all and is drawn as a break in the line, never interpolated across. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 3 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 2.5Under 2.5Collected
Betsson1.174.57
NordicBetBest price: 1.184.65
William Hill1.15Best price: 5.00

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Both teams to score

no-vig from William Hill alone · 3 books quote this market · margin removed 7.1%

  • Both teams score

    1.40 at LiveScore Bet +2

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.5066.7% implieddifference −4.8pp

  • Not both teams score

    2.80 at William Hill

    collected

    no-vig reference 3.0033.3% implieddifference −2.4pp

Both teams score held from 1.40 to 1.40 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.232.102.9723 Sept, 20 UTC26 Sept, 19 UTC
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. 1 hour in the window had no collection at all and is drawn as a break in the line, never interpolated across. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 3 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
BookBoth teams scoreNot both teams scoreCollected
LiveScore BetBest price: 1.402.70
Virgin Bet1.402.70
William Hill1.40Best price: 2.80

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

  • Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
  • Rest: PSV Eindhoven 19d, Heerenveen 20d since last match.
  • League scoring baseline: 3.2 goals/game.
  • Home advantage applied for PSV Eindhoven.
  • Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Heerenveen

Match result+2.8pp differencecombined

11.50 at NordicBet

combined fair 8.7026 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 11%model 13% · market 11% (model vs market +2.3pp)

estimate 11% · price implies 9% · +32.3% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Heerenveen at 11%; best collected price 11.50 at nordicbet implies 9% — a +2.8pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes PSV Eindhoven the most likely outcome at 75%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 25%.

How does Clauseground predict PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.

Probabilities are labeled by source — market, model, or combined. How the model works →