Austin FC vs Nashville SC — market analysis & odds

Sun 11 Oct, 00:30 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
Nashville SC
51% means we estimate about 51 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Austin FC 24% · Draw 25% · Nashville SC 51%
2 · Understand the price
Nashville SC
1.95 decimal odds
FanDuel · US −105
collected 12:32 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 1.95 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
−0.7 percentage points
Our estimate is 51%; the price implies 51%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
The price implies a higher chance than our estimate

Updated 12:49 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Austin FCmodel 16% · market 27% (model vs market −10.5pp)

Drawmodel 21% · market 27% (model vs market −5.7pp)

Nashville SCmodel 63% · market 47% (model vs market +16.1pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

12:32 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 13 books quote this market · margin removed 10.1%

Austin FC
3.55 at Marathonbet
collected 12:32 UTC
no-vig reference 3.7426.7% implieddifference −1.5pp
Draw
3.80 at FanDuel +1
collected 12:32 UTC
no-vig reference 3.7426.7% implieddifference +0.4pp
Nashville SC
1.95 at FanDuel +2
collected 12:32 UTC
no-vig reference 2.1546.6% implieddifference −4.7pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Austin FC	3.55Marathonbet	12:32 UTC	3.7426.7% implied	−1.5pp
Draw	3.80FanDuel +1	12:32 UTC	3.7426.7% implied	+0.4pp
Nashville SC	1.95FanDuel +2	12:32 UTC	2.1546.6% implied	−4.7pp

Austin FC held from 3.40 to 3.40 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Austin FCDrawNashville SC

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 12–14 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 13 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Austin FC	Draw	Nashville SC	Collected
888sport	3.40	3.40	1.95	12:32 UTC
Betclic	3.25	3.43	1.78	12:32 UTC
BoyleSports	3.30	3.60	1.87	12:32 UTC
FanDuel	3.40	Best price: 3.80	Best price: 1.95	12:32 UTC
LeoVegas	3.35	3.55	1.88	12:32 UTC
Marathonbet	Best price: 3.55	3.64	1.93	12:32 UTC
MyBookie	3.50	3.70	1.91	12:32 UTC
Paddy Power	3.40	3.80	1.91	12:32 UTC
Sky Bet	3.25	3.50	1.85	12:32 UTC
Unibet	3.30	3.50	1.73	12:32 UTC
William Hill	3.40	3.40	1.95	12:32 UTC
Winamax	3.25	3.60	1.82	12:32 UTC
Winamax	3.15	3.50	1.80	12:32 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

12:32 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 3 books quote this market · margin removed 7.6%

Over 2.5
1.70 at William Hill
collected 12:32 UTC
no-vig reference 1.8354.7% implieddifference −4.2pp
Under 2.5
2.07 at MyBookie
collected 12:32 UTC
no-vig reference 2.2145.3% implieddifference −3.0pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 2.5	1.70William Hill	12:32 UTC	1.8354.7% implied	−4.2pp
Under 2.5	2.07MyBookie	12:32 UTC	2.2145.3% implied	−3.0pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.70 to 1.70 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Over 2.5Under 2.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 3 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Collected
LeoVegas	1.62	2.02	12:32 UTC
MyBookie	1.68	Best price: 2.07	12:32 UTC
William Hill	Best price: 1.70	2.05	12:32 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: Austin FC 21d, Nashville SC 21d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 3 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for Austin FC.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

No current price clears the publication threshold.

The market may be close to the estimate, the available data may be incomplete, or the price may have moved. Passing is a valid result.

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Austin FC vs Nashville SC?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Nashville SC the most likely outcome at 51%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 49%.

How does Clauseground predict Austin FC vs Nashville SC?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.