League intelligence
Major League Soccer
Compare the no-vig market with an independent model for every Major League Soccer match.
This hub follows Major League Soccer fixtures through two lenses: a no-vig probability stripped from a complete reference market, and a separate, independent statistical model. Beside each match we show the best price we have collected, with the venue and the time it was recorded, so its freshness is clear. Where model and market disagree, the AI analyst sets out what lies behind the gap — a cue to investigate, not a signal to bet.
On the board
- Orlando City SC vs FC Cincinnati38% · 24% · 38%
- Seattle Sounders FC vs Real Salt Lake49% · 24% · 27%
- New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union30% · 26% · 45%
- FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers50% · 23% · 27%
- Inter Miami CF vs Columbus Crew SC58% · 20% · 22%
- Chicago Fire vs Charlotte FC60% · 20% · 20%
- St. Louis City SC vs Los Angeles FC38% · 26% · 36%
- San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo45% · 26% · 29%
Recent results
Current value
FC Cincinnati
Match result+1.3pp differencereference market2.75 at LeoVegas
no-vig 2.6640 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference
reference market estimate 38%model 49% · market 38% (model vs market +11.0pp)estimate 38% · price implies 36% · +3.5% expected return if the estimate is right
No-vig reference market puts FC Cincinnati at 38%; best collected price 2.75 at leovegas_se implies 36% — a +1.3pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
priced
Both teams to score — No
Both teams to score+0.8pp differencereference market3.75 at Betfred
no-vig 3.648 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference
reference market estimate 28%model 18% · market 28% (model vs market −9.1pp)estimate 28% · price implies 27% · +3.1% expected return if the estimate is right
No-vig reference market puts Both teams to score — No at 28%; best collected price 3.75 at betfred_uk implies 27% — a +0.8pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
priced
A difference between the model and the market is something to investigate, not a guaranteed edge. Check the venue price and timestamp before acting.
What to know about Major League Soccer markets
Open Games, Around Three Goals
Major League Soccer matches average roughly three goals, which keeps totals and both-teams-to-score markets active. The model assesses each fixture on its own rather than assuming that average holds.
Salary Cap Encourages Parity
A salary cap and roster rules are designed to keep Major League Soccer competitive, so dominant favourites are less routine than in some European leagues. That tends to tighten the gap between the two sides, which the market-versus-model view makes visible.
Prices Can Differ Between Books
Major League Soccer markets are not always as deep as the largest European leagues, so the best available price can vary between venues. Each collected price carries a timestamp so you can judge how fresh it is.
Best price ran 7.40% above average
Across 5,798 completed Major League Soccer matches with a full closing price set, the best surveyed price was 7.40% higher than the market average for the same outcome (measured 11 August 2026). That is a property of the market, not a record of returns: the best price is an upper bound taken across every surveyed book, including ones that limit winning accounts and quotes that were never simultaneously obtainable. Clauseground does not currently claim a proven historical edge.
Major League Soccer questions
How does the model handle Major League Soccer totals?
It estimates each match individually from its own inputs rather than defaulting to the league's roughly three goals per game. That per-match figure is then set against the no-vig total implied by the reference market. A visible gap is a reason to look closer at the fixture, not a forecast of the result.
Are favourites priced differently in Major League Soccer?
Major League Soccer's salary cap and roster rules encourage balance, so the gap between the two sides is often narrower than in leagues with dominant clubs. Clauseground shows the no-vig market probability and the independent model side by side, and where they diverge the analyst explains the drivers. None of this guarantees an outcome; passing on a match is a legitimate decision.
What does the best price with a timestamp tell me?
It is the strongest price we have collected for that selection, tagged with the venue and the moment it was recorded. Prices move, so the timestamp lets you judge how current the number is. Clauseground is decision-support, not advice: it organises the market, the model and the price, and leaves the call to you. Gamble responsibly and only where legal, 21+ where applicable.
Clauseground is decision support, not tips. It shows the market view, an independent model view, and the available price with its source and timestamp — so you can judge Major League Soccer prices for yourself. Read the methodology, the public performance framework and what line shopping is worth, or browse all leagues.
Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.