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Major League Soccer

Compare the no-vig market with an independent model for every Major League Soccer match.

This hub follows Major League Soccer fixtures through two lenses: a no-vig probability stripped from a complete reference market, and a separate, independent statistical model. Beside each match we show the best price we have collected, with the venue and the time it was recorded, so its freshness is clear. Where model and market disagree, the AI analyst sets out what lies behind the gap — a cue to investigate, not a signal to bet.

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Current value

  1. San Jose Earthquakes

    Match result+8.5pp differencecombined

    4.65 at Betsson

    combined fair 3.3316 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

    combined estimate 30%model 50% · market 23% (model vs market +26.6pp)

    estimate 30% · price implies 22% · +39.5% expected return if the estimate is right

    Combined estimate puts San Jose Earthquakes at 30%; best collected price 4.65 at betsson implies 22% — a +8.5pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

    priced

  2. Real Salt Lake

    Match result+8.8pp differencecombined

    8.30 at Betsson

    combined fair 4.7917 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

    combined estimate 21%model 47% · market 12% (model vs market +35.2pp)

    estimate 21% · price implies 12% · +73.5% expected return if the estimate is right

    Combined estimate puts Real Salt Lake at 21%; best collected price 8.30 at betsson implies 12% — a +8.8pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

    priced

  3. New York Red Bulls

    Match result+3.8pp differencecombined

    3.50 at Betfair Sportsbook

    combined fair 3.0924 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

    combined estimate 32%model 45% · market 28% (model vs market +16.2pp)

    estimate 32% · price implies 29% · +13.4% expected return if the estimate is right

    Combined estimate puts New York Red Bulls at 32%; best collected price 3.50 at betfair_sb_uk implies 29% — a +3.8pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

    priced

  4. LA Galaxy

    Match result+3.8pp differencecombined

    5.40 at Betsson

    combined fair 4.4915 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

    combined estimate 22%model 32% · market 19% (model vs market +13.0pp)

    estimate 22% · price implies 19% · +20.3% expected return if the estimate is right

    Combined estimate puts LA Galaxy at 22%; best collected price 5.40 at betsson implies 19% — a +3.7pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

    priced

  5. Under 2.5

    Totals+2.5pp differencecombined

    2.85 at Betsson

    combined fair 2.663 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

    combined estimate 38%model 44% · market 36% (model vs market +7.9pp)

    estimate 38% · price implies 35% · +7.2% expected return if the estimate is right

    Combined estimate puts Under 2.5 at 38%; best collected price 2.85 at betsson implies 35% — a +2.5pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

    priced

  6. Draw

    Match result+2.9pp differencecombined

    4.80 at FanDuel

    combined fair 4.2115 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

    combined estimate 24%model 26% · market 23% (model vs market +3.6pp)

    estimate 24% · price implies 21% · +13.9% expected return if the estimate is right

    Combined estimate puts Draw at 24%; best collected price 4.80 at fanduel implies 21% — a +2.9pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

    priced

A difference between the model and the market is something to investigate, not a guaranteed edge. Check the venue price and timestamp before acting.

What to know about Major League Soccer markets

Open Games, Around Three Goals

Major League Soccer matches average roughly three goals, which keeps totals and both-teams-to-score markets active. The model assesses each fixture on its own rather than assuming that average holds.

Salary Cap Encourages Parity

A salary cap and roster rules are designed to keep Major League Soccer competitive, so dominant favourites are less routine than in some European leagues. That tends to tighten the gap between the two sides, which the market-versus-model view makes visible.

Prices Can Differ Between Books

Major League Soccer markets are not always as deep as the largest European leagues, so the best available price can vary between venues. Each collected price carries a timestamp so you can judge how fresh it is.

Best price ran 7.40% above average

Across 5,798 completed Major League Soccer matches with a full closing price set, the best surveyed price was 7.40% higher than the market average for the same outcome (measured 11 August 2026). That is a property of the market, not a record of returns: the best price is an upper bound taken across every surveyed book, including ones that limit winning accounts and quotes that were never simultaneously obtainable. Clauseground does not currently claim a proven historical edge.

Major League Soccer questions

How does the model handle Major League Soccer totals?

It estimates each match individually from its own inputs rather than defaulting to the league's roughly three goals per game. That per-match figure is then set against the no-vig total implied by the reference market. A visible gap is a reason to look closer at the fixture, not a forecast of the result.

Are favourites priced differently in Major League Soccer?

Major League Soccer's salary cap and roster rules encourage balance, so the gap between the two sides is often narrower than in leagues with dominant clubs. Clauseground shows the no-vig market probability and the independent model side by side, and where they diverge the analyst explains the drivers. None of this guarantees an outcome; passing on a match is a legitimate decision.

What does the best price with a timestamp tell me?

It is the strongest price we have collected for that selection, tagged with the venue and the moment it was recorded. Prices move, so the timestamp lets you judge how current the number is. Clauseground is decision-support, not advice: it organises the market, the model and the price, and leaves the call to you. Gamble responsibly and only where legal, 21+ where applicable.

Clauseground is decision support, not tips. It shows the market view, an independent model view, and the available price with its source and timestamp — so you can judge Major League Soccer prices for yourself. Read the methodology, the public performance framework and what line shopping is worth, or browse all leagues.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.