New York Red Bulls vs San Diego FC — market analysis & odds

Sat 10 Oct, 23:30 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
New York Red Bulls
42% means we estimate about 42 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: New York Red Bulls 42% · Draw 24% · San Diego FC 34%
2 · Understand the price
San Diego FC
2.99 decimal odds
Mybookieag · US +199
collected 08:32 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 2.99 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+0.5 percentage points
Our estimate is 34%; the price implies 33%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 08:32 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

New York Red Bullsmodel 37% · market 44% (model vs market −6.7pp)

Drawmodel 22% · market 25% (model vs market −2.9pp)

San Diego FCmodel 41% · market 32% (model vs market +9.5pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

08:32 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 13 books quote this market · margin removed 9.1%

New York Red Bulls
2.10 at 888sport +1
collected 08:32 UTC
no-vig reference 2.2943.6% implieddifference −4.0pp
Draw
4.20 at FanDuel
collected 08:32 UTC
no-vig reference 4.0424.8% implieddifference +1.0pp
San Diego FC
2.99 at MyBookie
collected 08:32 UTC
no-vig reference 3.1631.6% implieddifference −1.8pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
New York Red Bulls	2.10888sport +1	08:32 UTC	2.2943.6% implied	−4.0pp
Draw	4.20FanDuel	08:32 UTC	4.0424.8% implied	+1.0pp
San Diego FC	2.99MyBookie	08:32 UTC	3.1631.6% implied	−1.8pp

New York Red Bulls held from 2.10 to 2.10 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

New York Red BullsDrawSan Diego FC

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 12–14 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 13 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	New York Red Bulls	Draw	San Diego FC	Collected
888sport	Best price: 2.10	3.70	2.90	08:32 UTC
Betclic	1.90	3.60	2.80	08:32 UTC
BoyleSports	1.91	4.00	2.75	08:32 UTC
FanDuel	2.05	Best price: 4.20	2.95	08:32 UTC
LeoVegas	2.00	3.80	2.88	08:32 UTC
Marathonbet	2.09	3.88	2.95	08:32 UTC
MyBookie	2.05	3.90	Best price: 2.99	08:32 UTC
Paddy Power	2.00	4.00	2.90	08:32 UTC
Sky Bet	1.95	3.80	2.80	08:32 UTC
Unibet	1.84	3.70	2.85	08:32 UTC
William Hill	2.10	3.70	2.90	08:32 UTC
Winamax	1.94	3.75	2.80	08:32 UTC
Winamax	1.92	3.70	2.75	08:32 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: New York Red Bulls 22d, San Diego FC 20d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 3 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for New York Red Bulls.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

San Diego FC

Match result+0.5pp differencecombined

2.99 at MyBookie

combined fair 2.9413 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 34%model 41% · market 32% (model vs market +9.5pp)

estimate 34% · price implies 33% · +1.6% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts San Diego FC at 34%; best collected price 2.99 at mybookieag implies 33% — a +0.5pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 08:30 UTC

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win New York Red Bulls vs San Diego FC?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes New York Red Bulls the most likely outcome at 42%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 58%.

How does Clauseground predict New York Red Bulls vs San Diego FC?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.