Chicago Fire vs New York City FC — market analysis & odds

Sat 10 Oct, 18:30 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
Chicago Fire
51% means we estimate about 51 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Chicago Fire 51% · Draw 24% · New York City FC 24%
2 · Understand the price
Draw
4.20 decimal odds
FanDuel · US +320
collected 05:52 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 4.20 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+0.3 percentage points
Our estimate is 24%; the price implies 24%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 06:12 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Chicago Firemodel 50% · market 52% (model vs market −1.9pp)

Drawmodel 24% · market 24% (model vs market −0.3pp)

New York City FCmodel 26% · market 24% (model vs market +2.2pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

05:52 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 15 books quote this market · margin removed 10.1%

Chicago Fire
1.80 at Betsson +1
collected 05:52 UTC
no-vig reference 1.9351.9% implieddifference −3.7pp
Draw
4.20 at FanDuel
collected 05:52 UTC
no-vig reference 4.1324.2% implieddifference +0.4pp
New York City FC
4.00 at MyBookie
collected 05:52 UTC
no-vig reference 4.1823.9% implieddifference −1.1pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Chicago Fire	1.80Betsson +1	05:52 UTC	1.9351.9% implied	−3.7pp
Draw	4.20FanDuel	05:52 UTC	4.1324.2% implied	+0.4pp
New York City FC	4.00MyBookie	05:52 UTC	4.1823.9% implied	−1.1pp

Chicago Fire held from 1.75 to 1.75 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Chicago FireDrawNew York City FC

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 13–15 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. 1 hour in the window had no collection at all and is drawn as a break in the line, never interpolated across. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 15 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Chicago Fire	Draw	New York City FC	Collected
888sport	1.75	3.75	3.80	05:52 UTC
Betclic	1.62	3.68	3.68	05:52 UTC
Betsson	Best price: 1.80	4.05	3.95	05:52 UTC
BoyleSports	1.70	3.80	3.60	05:52 UTC
FanDuel	1.71	Best price: 4.20	3.90	05:52 UTC
LeoVegas	1.73	3.80	3.80	05:52 UTC
Marathonbet	1.76	3.96	3.95	05:52 UTC
MyBookie	1.74	4.00	Best price: 4.00	05:52 UTC
NordicBet	1.80	4.05	3.95	05:52 UTC
Paddy Power	1.75	4.00	3.80	05:52 UTC
Sky Bet	1.70	3.80	3.60	05:52 UTC
Unibet	1.58	3.70	3.70	05:52 UTC
William Hill	1.75	3.75	3.80	05:52 UTC
Winamax	1.66	3.85	3.65	05:52 UTC
Winamax	1.64	3.75	3.55	05:52 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

05:52 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 3 books quote this market · margin removed 7.4%

Over 2.5
1.53 at William Hill
collected 05:52 UTC
no-vig reference 1.6460.9% implieddifference −4.5pp
Under 2.5
2.58 at Betsson +1
collected 05:52 UTC
no-vig reference 2.5639.1% implieddifference +0.4pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 2.5	1.53William Hill	05:52 UTC	1.6460.9% implied	−4.5pp
Under 2.5	2.58Betsson +1	05:52 UTC	2.5639.1% implied	+0.4pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.53 to 1.53 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Over 2.5Under 2.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 2–3 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. 1 hour in the window had no collection at all and is drawn as a break in the line, never interpolated across. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 3 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Collected
Betsson	1.49	Best price: 2.58	05:52 UTC
NordicBet	1.49	2.58	05:52 UTC
William Hill	Best price: 1.53	2.38	05:52 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: Chicago Fire 21d, New York City FC 22d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 3 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for Chicago Fire.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

No current price clears the publication threshold.

The market may be close to the estimate, the available data may be incomplete, or the price may have moved. Passing is a valid result.

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Chicago Fire vs New York City FC?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Chicago Fire the most likely outcome at 51%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 49%.

How does Clauseground predict Chicago Fire vs New York City FC?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.