Toronto FC vs CF Montreal — market analysis & odds

Sat 10 Oct, 17:00 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
Toronto FC
50% means we estimate about 50 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Toronto FC 50% · Draw 24% · CF Montreal 26%
2 · Understand the price
CF Montreal
4.25 decimal odds
Betsson · US +325
collected 16:32 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 4.25 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+2.2 percentage points
Our estimate is 26%; the price implies 24%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 16:32 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Toronto FCmodel 45% · market 52% (model vs market −7.3pp)

Drawmodel 24% · market 24% (model vs market +0.1pp)

CF Montrealmodel 31% · market 24% (model vs market +7.2pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

16:32 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 15 books quote this market · margin removed 10.1%

Toronto FC
1.78 at Betsson +1
collected 16:32 UTC
no-vig reference 1.9351.9% implieddifference −4.3pp
Draw
4.20 at FanDuel
collected 16:32 UTC
no-vig reference 4.1324.2% implieddifference +0.4pp
CF Montreal
4.25 at Betsson +1
collected 16:32 UTC
no-vig reference 4.1823.9% implieddifference +0.4pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Toronto FC	1.78Betsson +1	16:32 UTC	1.9351.9% implied	−4.3pp
Draw	4.20FanDuel	16:32 UTC	4.1324.2% implied	+0.4pp
CF Montreal	4.25Betsson +1	16:32 UTC	4.1823.9% implied	+0.4pp

Toronto FC held from 1.75 to 1.75 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Toronto FCDrawCF Montreal

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 14–15 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 15 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Toronto FC	Draw	CF Montreal	Collected
888sport	1.75	3.75	3.80	16:32 UTC
Betclic	1.65	3.78	3.70	14:32 UTC
Betsson	Best price: 1.78	3.85	Best price: 4.25	16:32 UTC
BoyleSports	1.70	4.00	3.60	16:32 UTC
FanDuel	1.71	Best price: 4.20	3.90	16:32 UTC
LeoVegas	1.73	3.90	3.70	16:32 UTC
Marathonbet	1.75	3.98	3.96	16:32 UTC
MyBookie	1.74	4.00	3.90	16:32 UTC
NordicBet	1.78	3.85	4.25	16:32 UTC
Paddy Power	1.75	4.00	3.80	16:32 UTC
Sky Bet	1.70	3.80	3.60	16:32 UTC
Unibet	1.60	3.80	3.70	16:32 UTC
William Hill	1.75	3.75	3.80	16:32 UTC
Winamax	1.66	3.90	3.60	16:32 UTC
Winamax	1.64	3.80	3.50	16:32 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

16:32 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 3 books quote this market · margin removed 9.4%

Over 2.5
1.49 at Betsson +1
collected 16:32 UTC
no-vig reference 1.5863.5% implieddifference −3.7pp
Under 2.5
2.58 at Betsson +1
collected 16:32 UTC
no-vig reference 2.7436.5% implieddifference −2.2pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 2.5	1.49Betsson +1	16:32 UTC	1.5863.5% implied	−3.7pp
Under 2.5	2.58Betsson +1	16:32 UTC	2.7436.5% implied	−2.2pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.44 to 1.44 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Over 2.5Under 2.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 3 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Collected
Betsson	Best price: 1.49	Best price: 2.58	16:32 UTC
NordicBet	1.49	2.58	16:32 UTC
William Hill	1.44	2.50	16:32 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: Toronto FC 21d, CF Montreal 21d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 3 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for Toronto FC.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

CF Montreal

Match result+2.2pp differencecombined

4.25 at Betsson

combined fair 3.8915 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 26%model 31% · market 24% (model vs market +7.2pp)

estimate 26% · price implies 24% · +9.2% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts CF Montreal at 26%; best collected price 4.25 at betsson implies 24% — a +2.2pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 16:30 UTC

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Toronto FC vs CF Montreal?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Toronto FC the most likely outcome at 50%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 50%.

How does Clauseground predict Toronto FC vs CF Montreal?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.