Los Angeles FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps FC — market analysis & odds

Sun 11 Oct, 02:30 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
Vancouver Whitecaps FC
41% means we estimate about 41 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Los Angeles FC 34% · Draw 26% · Vancouver Whitecaps FC 41%
2 · Understand the price
Draw
3.80 decimal odds
FanDuel · US +280
collected 12:32 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 3.80 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
−0.5 percentage points
Our estimate is 26%; the price implies 26%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
The price implies a higher chance than our estimate

Updated 12:49 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Los Angeles FCmodel 29% · market 35% (model vs market −6.5pp)

Drawmodel 25% · market 26% (model vs market −1.5pp)

Vancouver Whitecaps FCmodel 46% · market 39% (model vs market +8.0pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

12:32 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 13 books quote this market · margin removed 9.0%

Los Angeles FC
2.62 at Marathonbet
collected 12:32 UTC
no-vig reference 2.8435.3% implieddifference −2.9pp
Draw
3.80 at FanDuel +1
collected 12:32 UTC
no-vig reference 3.8226.2% implieddifference −0.1pp
Vancouver Whitecaps FC
2.40 at FanDuel +1
collected 12:32 UTC
no-vig reference 2.6038.5% implieddifference −3.1pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Los Angeles FC	2.62Marathonbet	12:32 UTC	2.8435.3% implied	−2.9pp
Draw	3.80FanDuel +1	12:32 UTC	3.8226.2% implied	−0.1pp
Vancouver Whitecaps FC	2.40FanDuel +1	12:32 UTC	2.6038.5% implied	−3.1pp

Los Angeles FC held from 2.60 to 2.60 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Los Angeles FCDrawVancouver Whitecaps FC

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 12–14 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 13 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Los Angeles FC	Draw	Vancouver Whitecaps FC	Collected
888sport	2.60	3.50	2.38	12:32 UTC
Betclic	2.42	3.47	2.18	12:32 UTC
BoyleSports	2.40	3.75	2.25	12:32 UTC
FanDuel	2.60	Best price: 3.80	Best price: 2.40	12:32 UTC
LeoVegas	2.50	3.60	2.30	12:32 UTC
Marathonbet	Best price: 2.62	3.68	2.38	12:32 UTC
MyBookie	2.57	3.75	2.37	12:32 UTC
Paddy Power	2.60	3.80	2.40	12:32 UTC
Sky Bet	2.45	3.50	2.30	12:32 UTC
Unibet	2.45	3.50	2.10	12:32 UTC
William Hill	2.60	3.50	2.38	12:32 UTC
Winamax	2.40	3.60	2.20	12:32 UTC
Winamax	2.35	3.55	2.20	12:32 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

12:32 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 3 books quote this market · margin removed 7.2%

Over 2.5
1.57 at William Hill
collected 12:32 UTC
no-vig reference 1.6859.4% implieddifference −4.3pp
Under 2.5
2.31 at MyBookie
collected 12:32 UTC
no-vig reference 2.4640.6% implieddifference −2.7pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 2.5	1.57William Hill	12:32 UTC	1.6859.4% implied	−4.3pp
Under 2.5	2.31MyBookie	12:32 UTC	2.4640.6% implied	−2.7pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.57 to 1.57 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Over 2.5Under 2.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 3 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Collected
LeoVegas	1.50	2.25	12:32 UTC
MyBookie	1.55	Best price: 2.31	12:32 UTC
William Hill	Best price: 1.57	2.30	12:32 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: Los Angeles FC 21d, Vancouver Whitecaps FC 21d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 3 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for Los Angeles FC.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

No current price clears the publication threshold.

The market may be close to the estimate, the available data may be incomplete, or the price may have moved. Passing is a valid result.

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Los Angeles FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps FC?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Vancouver Whitecaps FC the most likely outcome at 41%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 59%.

How does Clauseground predict Los Angeles FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps FC?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.