Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake — market analysis & odds

Sat 10 Oct, 23:30 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
Philadelphia Union
59% means we estimate about 59 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Philadelphia Union 59% · Draw 20% · Real Salt Lake 21%
2 · Understand the price
Real Salt Lake
8.30 decimal odds
Betsson · US +730
collected 02:52 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 8.30 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+9.1 percentage points
Our estimate is 21%; the price implies 12%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 02:52 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Philadelphia Unionmodel 28% · market 69% (model vs market −41.2pp)

Drawmodel 24% · market 18% (model vs market +5.7pp)

Real Salt Lakemodel 48% · market 12% (model vs market +35.5pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

02:52 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 15 books quote this market · margin removed 8.5%

Philadelphia Union
1.33 at Betsson +3
collected 02:52 UTC
no-vig reference 1.4469.3% implieddifference −5.9pp
Draw
5.90 at FanDuel
collected 02:52 UTC
no-vig reference 5.4318.4% implieddifference +1.5pp
Real Salt Lake
8.30 at Betsson +1
collected 02:52 UTC
no-vig reference 8.1412.3% implieddifference +0.2pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Philadelphia Union	1.33Betsson +3	02:52 UTC	1.4469.3% implied	−5.9pp
Draw	5.90FanDuel	02:52 UTC	5.4318.4% implied	+1.5pp
Real Salt Lake	8.30Betsson +1	02:52 UTC	8.1412.3% implied	+0.2pp

Philadelphia Union held from 1.33 to 1.33 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Philadelphia UnionDrawReal Salt Lake

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 12–15 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. 1 hour in the window had no collection at all and is drawn as a break in the line, never interpolated across. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 15 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Philadelphia Union	Draw	Real Salt Lake	Collected
888sport	1.33	5.00	7.50	02:52 UTC
Betclic	1.25	4.75	6.75	02:52 UTC
Betsson	Best price: 1.33	5.25	Best price: 8.30	02:52 UTC
BoyleSports	1.30	5.00	6.50	02:52 UTC
FanDuel	1.28	Best price: 5.90	8.00	02:52 UTC
LeoVegas	1.29	5.25	7.00	02:52 UTC
Marathonbet	1.32	5.25	7.90	02:52 UTC
MyBookie	1.31	5.40	7.70	02:52 UTC
NordicBet	1.33	5.25	8.30	02:52 UTC
Paddy Power	1.29	5.50	8.00	02:52 UTC
Sky Bet	1.25	5.25	7.00	02:52 UTC
Unibet	1.22	4.90	6.80	02:52 UTC
William Hill	1.33	5.00	7.50	02:52 UTC
Winamax	1.27	5.10	6.50	02:52 UTC
Winamax	1.25	4.90	6.25	02:52 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

02:52 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 3 books quote this market · margin removed 7.4%

Over 2.5
1.33 at William Hill
collected 02:52 UTC
no-vig reference 1.4370.0% implieddifference −5.2pp
Under 2.5
3.25 at Betsson +1
collected 02:52 UTC
no-vig reference 3.3330.0% implieddifference −0.7pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 2.5	1.33William Hill	02:52 UTC	1.4370.0% implied	−5.2pp
Under 2.5	3.25Betsson +1	02:52 UTC	3.3330.0% implied	−0.7pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.33 to 1.33 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Over 2.5Under 2.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 1–3 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. 1 hour in the window had no collection at all and is drawn as a break in the line, never interpolated across. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 3 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Collected
Betsson	1.32	Best price: 3.25	02:52 UTC
NordicBet	1.32	3.25	02:52 UTC
William Hill	Best price: 1.33	3.10	02:52 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: Philadelphia Union 21d, Real Salt Lake 17d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 3 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for Philadelphia Union.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Real Salt Lake

Match result+9.1pp differencecombined

8.30 at Betsson

combined fair 4.7315 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 21%model 48% · market 12% (model vs market +35.5pp)

estimate 21% · price implies 12% · +75.7% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Real Salt Lake at 21%; best collected price 8.30 at betsson implies 12% — a +9.1pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 02:49 UTC

Draw

Match result+2.9pp differencecombined

5.90 at FanDuel

combined fair 5.0415 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 20%model 24% · market 18% (model vs market +5.7pp)

estimate 20% · price implies 17% · +17.1% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Draw at 20%; best collected price 5.90 at fanduel implies 17% — a +2.9pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 02:49 UTC

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Philadelphia Union the most likely outcome at 59%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 41%.

How does Clauseground predict Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.