New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders FC — market analysis & odds

Sat 10 Oct, 23:30 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
New England Revolution
49% means we estimate about 49 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: New England Revolution 49% · Draw 25% · Seattle Sounders FC 26%
2 · Understand the price
Draw
4.30 decimal odds
FanDuel · US +330
collected 20:52 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 4.30 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+1.6 percentage points
Our estimate is 25%; the price implies 23%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 21:10 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

New England Revolutionmodel 41% · market 52% (model vs market −10.8pp)

Drawmodel 28% · market 24% (model vs market +3.6pp)

Seattle Sounders FCmodel 31% · market 24% (model vs market +7.2pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

20:52 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 15 books quote this market · margin removed 9.8%

New England Revolution
1.75 at 888sport +1
collected 20:52 UTC
no-vig reference 1.9252.1% implieddifference −5.1pp
Draw
4.30 at FanDuel
collected 20:52 UTC
no-vig reference 4.1724.0% implieddifference +0.7pp
Seattle Sounders FC
4.10 at Betsson +2
collected 20:52 UTC
no-vig reference 4.1724.0% implieddifference −0.4pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
New England Revolution	1.75888sport +1	20:52 UTC	1.9252.1% implied	−5.1pp
Draw	4.30FanDuel	20:52 UTC	4.1724.0% implied	+0.7pp
Seattle Sounders FC	4.10Betsson +2	20:52 UTC	4.1724.0% implied	−0.4pp

New England Revolution held from 1.75 to 1.75 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

New England RevolutionDrawSeattle Sounders FC

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 12–15 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. 1 hour in the window had no collection at all and is drawn as a break in the line, never interpolated across. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 15 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	New England Revolution	Draw	Seattle Sounders FC	Collected
888sport	Best price: 1.75	3.80	3.80	20:52 UTC
Betclic	1.59	3.75	3.75	20:52 UTC
Betsson	1.72	4.15	Best price: 4.10	20:52 UTC
BoyleSports	1.67	4.20	3.50	20:52 UTC
FanDuel	1.69	Best price: 4.30	3.90	20:52 UTC
LeoVegas	1.67	3.95	3.85	20:52 UTC
Marathonbet	1.73	4.05	4.05	20:52 UTC
MyBookie	1.70	4.10	4.10	20:52 UTC
NordicBet	1.72	4.15	4.10	20:52 UTC
Paddy Power	1.73	4.20	3.80	20:52 UTC
Sky Bet	1.67	3.90	3.60	20:52 UTC
Unibet	1.55	3.80	3.80	20:52 UTC
William Hill	1.75	3.80	3.80	20:52 UTC
Winamax	1.62	3.95	3.70	20:52 UTC
Winamax	1.60	3.85	3.65	20:52 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

20:52 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 3 books quote this market · margin removed 7.9%

Over 2.5
1.44 at William Hill
collected 20:52 UTC
no-vig reference 1.5564.4% implieddifference −5.1pp
Under 2.5
2.85 at Betsson +1
collected 20:52 UTC
no-vig reference 2.8135.6% implieddifference +0.6pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 2.5	1.44William Hill	20:52 UTC	1.5564.4% implied	−5.1pp
Under 2.5	2.85Betsson +1	20:52 UTC	2.8135.6% implied	+0.6pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.44 to 1.44 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Over 2.5Under 2.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 1–3 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. 1 hour in the window had no collection at all and is drawn as a break in the line, never interpolated across. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 3 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Collected
Betsson	1.41	Best price: 2.85	20:52 UTC
NordicBet	1.41	2.85	20:52 UTC
William Hill	Best price: 1.44	2.60	20:52 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: New England Revolution 21d, Seattle Sounders FC 17d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 3 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for New England Revolution.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Under 2.5

Totals+2.5pp differencecombined

2.85 at Betsson

combined fair 2.663 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 38%model 44% · market 36% (model vs market +7.9pp)

estimate 38% · price implies 35% · +7.2% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Under 2.5 at 38%; best collected price 2.85 at betsson implies 35% — a +2.5pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 21:10 UTC

Draw

Match result+1.6pp differencecombined

4.30 at FanDuel

combined fair 4.0215 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 25%model 28% · market 24% (model vs market +3.6pp)

estimate 25% · price implies 23% · +7.0% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Draw at 25%; best collected price 4.30 at fanduel implies 23% — a +1.6pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 21:10 UTC

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders FC?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes New England Revolution the most likely outcome at 49%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 51%.

How does Clauseground predict New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders FC?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.