Inter Miami CF vs D.C. United — market analysis & odds
Read this match in three steps
Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.
1 · Most likely result
Inter Miami CF
67% means we estimate about 67 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Inter Miami CF 67% · Draw 18% · D.C. United 15%
2 · Understand the price
D.C. United
7.30 decimal odds
Betsson · US +630
collected
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 7.30 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+1.0 percentage points
Our estimate is 15%; the price implies 14%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate
Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately
Why the model and market differ
Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.
Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.
Every market, every book, and how the price moved
For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.
Match result (1X2)
no-vig from William Hill alone · 16 books quote this market · margin removed 9.5%
Inter Miami CF
1.36 at Betsson +3
collected
no-vig reference 1.4867.7% implieddifference −5.9pp
Draw
5.70 at FanDuel
collected
no-vig reference 5.4718.3% implieddifference +0.7pp
D.C. United
7.30 at Betsson +1
collected
no-vig reference 7.1114.1% implieddifference +0.4pp
Inter Miami CF held from 1.35 to 1.35 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.
Every book’s current price — 16 venues collected
| Book | Inter Miami CF | Draw | D.C. United | Collected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport | 1.36 | 5.00 | 6.50 | |
| Betclic | 1.30 | 4.80 | 6.25 | |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.33 | 5.50 | 7.00 | |
| Betsson | Best price: 1.36 | 5.25 | Best price: 7.30 | |
| BoyleSports | 1.30 | 5.00 | 5.50 | |
| FanDuel | 1.31 | Best price: 5.70 | 7.00 | |
| LeoVegas | 1.31 | 5.00 | 6.75 | |
| Marathonbet | 1.36 | 5.20 | 6.75 | |
| MyBookie | 1.35 | 5.20 | 6.70 | |
| NordicBet | 1.36 | 5.25 | 7.30 | |
| Paddy Power | 1.33 | 5.50 | 7.00 | |
| Sky Bet | 1.30 | 5.00 | 6.25 | |
| Unibet | 1.26 | 4.80 | 6.20 | |
| William Hill | 1.35 | 5.00 | 6.50 | |
| Winamax | 1.31 | 5.00 | 5.90 | |
| Winamax | 1.29 | 4.80 | 5.70 |
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Total goals 2.5
no-vig from William Hill alone · 3 books quote this market · margin removed 8.3%
Over 2.5
1.25 at Betsson +1
collected
no-vig reference 1.3275.7% implieddifference −4.3pp
Under 2.5
3.95 at Betsson +1
collected
no-vig reference 4.1124.3% implieddifference −1.0pp
Over 2.5 held from 1.22 to 1.22 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.
Every book’s current price — 3 venues collected
| Book | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Collected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson | Best price: 1.25 | Best price: 3.95 | |
| NordicBet | 1.25 | 3.95 | |
| William Hill | 1.22 | 3.80 |
Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.
Evidence and inputs
- Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
- Rest: Inter Miami CF 20d, D.C. United 14d since last match.
- League scoring baseline: 3 goals/game.
- Home advantage applied for Inter Miami CF.
- Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.
Potential value to investigate
D.C. United
Match result+1.9pp differencecombined7.80 at Betsson
combined fair 6.8115 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference
estimate 15% · price implies 13% · +14.6% expected return if the estimate is right
Combined estimate puts D.C. United at 15%; best collected price 7.80 at betsson implies 13% — a +1.9pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
priced
Draw
Match result+0.6pp differencecombined5.70 at FanDuel
combined fair 5.5015 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference
estimate 18% · price implies 18% · +3.6% expected return if the estimate is right
Combined estimate puts Draw at 18%; best collected price 5.70 at fanduel implies 18% — a +0.6pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
priced
Questions
Who is most likely to win Inter Miami CF vs D.C. United?
Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Inter Miami CF the most likely outcome at 67%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 33%.
How does Clauseground predict Inter Miami CF vs D.C. United?
Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.