Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew SC — market analysis & odds

Sat 10 Oct, 23:30 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
Orlando City SC
42% means we estimate about 42 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Orlando City SC 42% · Draw 25% · Columbus Crew SC 33%
2 · Understand the price
Columbus Crew SC
3.22 decimal odds
Mybookieag · US +222
collected 14:52 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 3.22 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+1.7 percentage points
Our estimate is 33%; the price implies 31%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 14:52 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Orlando City SCmodel 34% · market 45% (model vs market −10.6pp)

Drawmodel 24% · market 26% (model vs market −2.0pp)

Columbus Crew SCmodel 42% · market 30% (model vs market +12.6pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

14:52 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 13 books quote this market · margin removed 8.8%

Orlando City SC
2.05 at 888sport +1
collected 14:52 UTC
no-vig reference 2.2344.8% implieddifference −4.0pp
Draw
4.10 at FanDuel
collected 14:52 UTC
no-vig reference 3.9225.5% implieddifference +1.1pp
Columbus Crew SC
3.22 at MyBookie
collected 14:52 UTC
no-vig reference 3.3729.6% implieddifference −1.4pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Orlando City SC	2.05888sport +1	14:52 UTC	2.2344.8% implied	−4.0pp
Draw	4.10FanDuel	14:52 UTC	3.9225.5% implied	+1.1pp
Columbus Crew SC	3.22MyBookie	14:52 UTC	3.3729.6% implied	−1.4pp

Orlando City SC held from 2.05 to 2.05 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Orlando City SCDrawColumbus Crew SC

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 12–13 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. 1 hour in the window had no collection at all and is drawn as a break in the line, never interpolated across. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 13 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Orlando City SC	Draw	Columbus Crew SC	Collected
888sport	Best price: 2.05	3.60	3.10	14:52 UTC
Betclic	1.83	3.55	3.00	14:52 UTC
BoyleSports	1.87	3.80	2.90	14:52 UTC
FanDuel	2.00	Best price: 4.10	3.20	14:52 UTC
LeoVegas	1.92	3.75	3.10	14:52 UTC
Marathonbet	2.03	3.80	3.12	14:52 UTC
MyBookie	1.97	3.80	Best price: 3.22	14:52 UTC
Paddy Power	1.95	4.00	3.10	14:52 UTC
Sky Bet	1.91	3.75	3.00	14:52 UTC
Unibet	1.78	3.60	3.00	14:52 UTC
William Hill	2.05	3.60	3.10	14:52 UTC
Winamax	1.88	3.70	3.00	14:52 UTC
Winamax	1.86	3.65	2.90	14:52 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: Orlando City SC 21d, Columbus Crew SC 21d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 3 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for Orlando City SC.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Columbus Crew SC

Match result+1.7pp differencecombined

3.22 at MyBookie

combined fair 3.0513 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 33%model 42% · market 30% (model vs market +12.6pp)

estimate 33% · price implies 31% · +5.6% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Columbus Crew SC at 33%; best collected price 3.22 at mybookieag implies 31% — a +1.7pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 14:50 UTC

Draw

Match result+0.6pp differencecombined

4.10 at FanDuel

combined fair 4.0013 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 25%model 24% · market 26% (model vs market −2.0pp)

estimate 25% · price implies 24% · +2.6% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Draw at 25%; best collected price 4.10 at fanduel implies 24% — a +0.6pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 14:50 UTC

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew SC?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Orlando City SC the most likely outcome at 42%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 58%.

How does Clauseground predict Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew SC?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.