Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati — market analysis & odds

Sat 10 Oct, 23:30 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
FC Cincinnati
39% means we estimate about 39 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Atlanta United FC 37% · Draw 24% · FC Cincinnati 39%
2 · Understand the price
FC Cincinnati
2.72 decimal odds
Betsson · US +172
collected 09:32 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 2.72 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+2.3 percentage points
Our estimate is 39%; the price implies 37%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 17:12 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Atlanta United FCmodel 29% · market 39% (model vs market −9.7pp)

Drawmodel 22% · market 25% (model vs market −2.7pp)

FC Cincinnatimodel 48% · market 36% (model vs market +12.3pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

09:32 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 16 books quote this market · margin removed 11.3%

Atlanta United FC
2.32 at Betsson +2
collected 09:32 UTC
no-vig reference 2.5639.1% implieddifference −4.0pp
Draw
4.00 at FanDuel +1
collected 09:32 UTC
no-vig reference 4.0125.0% implieddifference −0.0pp
FC Cincinnati
2.72 at Betsson +1
collected 09:32 UTC
no-vig reference 2.7836.0% implieddifference −0.8pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Atlanta United FC	2.32Betsson +2	09:32 UTC	2.5639.1% implied	−4.0pp
Draw	4.00FanDuel +1	09:32 UTC	4.0125.0% implied	−0.0pp
FC Cincinnati	2.72Betsson +1	09:32 UTC	2.7836.0% implied	−0.8pp

Atlanta United FC held from 2.30 to 2.30 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Atlanta United FCDrawFC Cincinnati

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 12–17 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 16 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Atlanta United FC	Draw	FC Cincinnati	Collected
888sport	2.30	3.60	2.60	09:32 UTC
Betclic	2.13	3.68	2.50	09:32 UTC
Betsson	Best price: 2.32	3.85	Best price: 2.72	09:32 UTC
BoyleSports	2.15	3.80	2.40	09:32 UTC
FanDuel	2.30	Best price: 4.00	2.65	09:32 UTC
LeoVegas	2.25	3.70	2.55	09:32 UTC
Marathonbet	2.32	3.80	2.62	09:32 UTC
MyBookie	2.28	3.85	2.61	09:32 UTC
NordicBet	2.32	3.85	2.72	09:32 UTC
Paddy Power	2.30	4.00	2.62	09:32 UTC
Sky Bet	2.20	3.75	2.50	09:32 UTC
Tipico	2.30	3.90	2.55	09:32 UTC
Unibet	2.05	3.70	2.50	09:32 UTC
William Hill	2.30	3.60	2.50	09:32 UTC
Winamax	2.15	3.75	2.45	09:32 UTC
Winamax	2.10	3.65	2.40	09:32 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

09:32 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 3 books quote this market · margin removed 9.2%

Over 2.5
1.39 at Betsson +1
collected 09:32 UTC
no-vig reference 1.4967.3% implieddifference −4.6pp
Under 2.5
2.95 at Betsson +1
collected 09:32 UTC
no-vig reference 3.0632.7% implieddifference −1.2pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 2.5	1.39Betsson +1	09:32 UTC	1.4967.3% implied	−4.6pp
Under 2.5	2.95Betsson +1	09:32 UTC	3.0632.7% implied	−1.2pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.36 to 1.36 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Over 2.5Under 2.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 1–3 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 3 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Collected
Betsson	Best price: 1.39	Best price: 2.95	09:32 UTC
NordicBet	1.39	2.95	09:32 UTC
William Hill	1.36	2.80	09:32 UTC

Total goals 3.5

09:32 UTC

3 books pricing this market · no reference book quoted every outcome, so no no-vig price is shown

Over 3.5
2.00 at MyBookie +1
collected 09:32 UTC
no-vig reference —difference —
Under 3.5
1.72 at MyBookie +1
collected 09:32 UTC
no-vig reference —difference —

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 3.5	2.00MyBookie +1	09:32 UTC	—	—
Under 3.5	1.72MyBookie +1	09:32 UTC	—	—

No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.

Over 3.5Under 3.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 2–3 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected.

Every book’s current price — 3 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 3.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 3.5	Under 3.5	Collected
LeoVegas	1.90	1.70	09:32 UTC
MyBookie	Best price: 2.00	Best price: 1.72	09:32 UTC
Tipico	2.00	1.72	09:32 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: Atlanta United FC 21d, FC Cincinnati 21d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 3 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for Atlanta United FC.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

FC Cincinnati

Match result+1.3pp differencecombined

2.65 at FanDuel

combined fair 2.5613 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 39%model 48% · market 36% (model vs market +12.3pp)

estimate 39% · price implies 38% · +3.4% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts FC Cincinnati at 39%; best collected price 2.65 at fanduel implies 38% — a +1.3pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 17:10 UTC

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes FC Cincinnati the most likely outcome at 39%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 61%.

How does Clauseground predict Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.