Seattle Sounders FC vs Sporting Kansas City — market analysis & odds

Fri 2 Oct, 01:30 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
Seattle Sounders FC
62% means we estimate about 62 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Seattle Sounders FC 62% · Draw 20% · Sporting Kansas City 17%
2 · Understand the price
Sporting Kansas City
6.50 decimal odds
Leovegas se · US +550
collected 16:32 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 6.50 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+2.0 percentage points
Our estimate is 17%; the price implies 15%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 09:32 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Seattle Sounders FCmodel 57% · market 64% (model vs market −6.7pp)

Drawmodel 24% · market 19% (model vs market +5.0pp)

Sporting Kansas Citymodel 19% · market 17% (model vs market +1.7pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

16:32 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 33 books quote this market · margin removed 10.4%

Seattle Sounders FC
1.47 at GTbets
collected 16:32 UTC
no-vig reference 1.5962.9% implieddifference −5.1pp
Draw
5.30 at FanDuel
collected 16:32 UTC
no-vig reference 4.8620.6% implieddifference +1.7pp
Sporting Kansas City
6.50 at LeoVegas
collected 16:32 UTC
no-vig reference 6.0716.5% implieddifference +1.1pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Seattle Sounders FC	1.47GTbets	16:32 UTC	1.5962.9% implied	−5.1pp
Draw	5.30FanDuel	16:32 UTC	4.8620.6% implied	+1.7pp
Sporting Kansas City	6.50LeoVegas	16:32 UTC	6.0716.5% implied	+1.1pp

Seattle Sounders FC held from 1.44 to 1.44 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Seattle Sounders FCDrawSporting Kansas City

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 20–33 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 33 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Seattle Sounders FC	Draw	Sporting Kansas City	Collected
888sport	1.44	4.50	5.50	16:32 UTC
Betano	1.40	4.80	5.75	16:32 UTC
Betclic	1.38	4.65	5.60	14:32 UTC
Betfred	1.40	5.00	5.50	16:32 UTC
BetMGM	1.44	5.00	5.50	16:32 UTC
BetRivers	1.42	4.80	6.10	16:32 UTC
Betsson	1.43	4.80	6.30	16:32 UTC
BetVictor	1.40	4.80	5.75	16:32 UTC
Betway	1.43	4.75	5.50	16:32 UTC
BoyleSports	1.40	4.75	5.00	16:32 UTC
Coolbet	1.43	5.25	6.00	16:32 UTC
Coral	1.40	4.80	5.25	16:32 UTC
Fanatics	1.42	5.00	6.00	16:32 UTC
FanDuel	1.37	Best price: 5.30	6.00	16:32 UTC
Grosvenor	1.41	4.60	5.80	16:32 UTC
GTbets	Best price: 1.47	4.94	5.98	16:32 UTC
Ladbrokes	1.40	4.80	5.25	16:32 UTC
LeoVegas	1.45	5.10	Best price: 6.50	16:32 UTC
LeoVegas	1.42	4.75	5.50	16:32 UTC
LiveScore Bet	1.41	4.70	6.00	16:32 UTC
Marathonbet	1.42	4.80	6.15	16:32 UTC
MyBookie	1.42	4.80	5.90	16:32 UTC
NordicBet	1.43	4.80	6.30	16:32 UTC
Paddy Power	1.40	5.00	6.00	16:32 UTC
PMU	1.40	4.60	5.80	16:32 UTC
Sky Bet	1.36	4.75	5.50	16:32 UTC
Unibet	1.42	4.80	6.10	16:32 UTC
Unibet	1.42	4.80	6.10	16:32 UTC
Unibet	1.33	4.50	5.40	16:32 UTC
Virgin Bet	1.41	4.60	5.80	16:32 UTC
William Hill	1.44	4.40	5.50	16:32 UTC
Winamax	1.39	4.80	5.30	16:32 UTC
Winamax	1.37	4.60	5.20	16:32 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 3.5

16:32 UTC

11 books pricing this market · no reference book quoted every outcome, so no no-vig price is shown

Over 3.5
1.96 at BetRivers +3
collected 16:32 UTC
no-vig reference —difference —
Under 3.5
1.93 at Coolbet
collected 16:32 UTC
no-vig reference —difference —

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 3.5	1.96BetRivers +3	16:32 UTC	—	—
Under 3.5	1.93Coolbet	16:32 UTC	—	—

No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.

Over 3.5Under 3.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3–11 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected.

Every book’s current price — 11 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 3.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 3.5	Under 3.5	Collected
BetMGM	1.83	1.85	16:32 UTC
BetRivers	Best price: 1.96	1.79	16:32 UTC
Coolbet	1.85	Best price: 1.93	16:32 UTC
Grosvenor	1.94	1.78	16:32 UTC
GTbets	1.86	1.91	16:32 UTC
LeoVegas	1.96	1.79	16:32 UTC
LeoVegas	1.80	1.85	16:32 UTC
MyBookie	1.85	1.85	16:32 UTC
PMU	1.85	1.68	16:32 UTC
Unibet	1.96	1.79	16:32 UTC
Unibet	1.96	1.79	16:32 UTC

Total goals 2.5

16:32 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 3 books quote this market · margin removed 7.4%

Over 2.5
1.34 at Betsson +1
collected 16:32 UTC
no-vig reference 1.4370.0% implieddifference −4.6pp
Under 2.5
3.20 at Betsson +1
collected 16:32 UTC
no-vig reference 3.3330.0% implieddifference −1.2pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 2.5	1.34Betsson +1	16:32 UTC	1.4370.0% implied	−4.6pp
Under 2.5	3.20Betsson +1	16:32 UTC	3.3330.0% implied	−1.2pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.33 to 1.33 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Over 2.5Under 2.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 3 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Collected
Betsson	Best price: 1.34	Best price: 3.20	16:32 UTC
NordicBet	1.34	3.20	16:32 UTC
William Hill	1.33	3.10	16:32 UTC

Both teams to score

16:12 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 8 books quote this market · margin removed 9.4%

Both teams score
1.53 at LiveScore Bet +1
collected 16:12 UTC
no-vig reference 1.5863.5% implieddifference −1.9pp
Not both teams score
2.62 at Betfred
collected 16:12 UTC
no-vig reference 2.7436.5% implieddifference −1.6pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Both teams score	1.53LiveScore Bet +1	16:12 UTC	1.5863.5% implied	−1.9pp
Not both teams score	2.62Betfred	16:12 UTC	2.7436.5% implied	−1.6pp

Both teams score held from 1.44 to 1.44 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Both teams scoreNot both teams score

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 4–8 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 8 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Both teams score	Not both teams score	Collected
Betfred	1.44	Best price: 2.62	16:12 UTC
Coral	1.48	2.45	16:12 UTC
Ladbrokes	1.48	2.45	16:12 UTC
LeoVegas	1.44	2.40	16:12 UTC
LiveScore Bet	Best price: 1.53	2.35	16:12 UTC
MyBookie	1.50	2.42	16:12 UTC
Virgin Bet	1.53	2.35	16:12 UTC
William Hill	1.44	2.50	16:12 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: Seattle Sounders FC 5d, Sporting Kansas City 5d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 3 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for Seattle Sounders FC.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Sporting Kansas City

Match result+2.0pp differencecombined

6.50 at LeoVegas

combined fair 5.7441 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 17%model 19% · market 17% (model vs market +1.7pp)

estimate 17% · price implies 15% · +13.2% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Sporting Kansas City at 17%; best collected price 6.50 at leovegas_se implies 15% — a +2.0pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 09:29 UTC

Under 3.5

Totals+1.0pp differencecombined

1.91 at Bovada

combined fair 1.8816 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 53%model 63% · market 50% (model vs market +12.3pp)

estimate 53% · price implies 52% · +1.9% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Under 3.5 at 53%; best collected price 1.91 at bovada implies 52% — a +1.0pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 09:29 UTC

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Seattle Sounders FC vs Sporting Kansas City?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Seattle Sounders FC the most likely outcome at 62%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 38%.

How does Clauseground predict Seattle Sounders FC vs Sporting Kansas City?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.