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EFL Championship

Preston North End vs Millwall — market analysis & odds

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

  1. 1 · Most likely result

    Millwall

    37% means we estimate about 37 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.

    Overall: Preston North End 34% · Draw 29% · Millwall 37%

  2. 2 · Understand the price

    Draw

    3.55 decimal odds

    Leovegas se · US +255

    collected

    This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 3.55 units total if successful.

  3. 3 · Compare probability

    +0.6 percentage points

    Our estimate is 29%; the price implies 28%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.

    Potential value to investigate

Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Preston North Endmodel 30% · market 35% (model vs market −4.9pp)
Drawmodel 30% · market 29% (model vs market +1.0pp)
Millwallmodel 40% · market 36% (model vs market +3.9pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 32 books quote this market · margin removed 4.9%

  • Preston North End

    2.70 at DraftKings +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.8035.7% implieddifference −1.3pp

  • Draw

    3.55 at LeoVegas

    collected

    no-vig reference 3.6027.8% implieddifference −0.4pp

  • Millwall

    2.61 at Pinnacle

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.7436.5% implieddifference −1.8pp

Draw drifted from 3.34 to 3.43 (+2.7%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

2.503.083.6625 Sept, 10 UTC28 Sept, 09 UTC
Preston North EndDrawMillwall
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 30–32 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 32 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
BookPreston North EndDrawMillwallCollected
888sport2.623.202.50
Betclic2.453.102.33
Betfair Sportsbook2.603.402.60
Betfred2.623.502.60
BetRivers2.553.302.45
Betsson2.653.402.55
Bovada2.653.402.50
BoyleSports2.503.402.40
Codere2.653.402.60
Coolbet2.653.502.60
DraftKingsBest price: 2.703.402.50
Fanatics2.653.402.50
FanDuel2.603.402.60
Grosvenor2.603.402.50
LeoVegas2.70Best price: 3.552.60
LeoVegas2.603.352.55
LiveScore Bet2.553.302.45
Marathonbet2.653.302.54
NordicBet2.673.402.57
Paddy Power2.503.302.50
Pinnacle2.673.43Best price: 2.61
PMU2.553.302.45
Sky Bet2.603.402.60
Tipico2.653.302.45
Unibet2.603.402.50
Unibet2.603.402.50
Unibet2.603.302.55
Unibet2.503.202.25
Virgin Bet2.603.352.48
William Hill2.623.202.50
Winamax2.503.302.45
Winamax2.353.102.30

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 15 books quote this market · margin removed 4.5%

  • Over 2.5

    1.93 at Bovada

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.9451.4% implieddifference −0.4pp

  • Under 2.5

    1.97 at Pinnacle

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.0648.6% implieddifference −2.2pp

Over 2.5 shortened from 1.88 to 1.86 (−1.1%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

1.931.951.9725 Sept, 10 UTC28 Sept, 09 UTC
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 15 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 15 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 2.5Under 2.5Collected
BetRivers1.821.92
Betsson1.851.96
BovadaBest price: 1.931.89
Codere1.811.86
Coolbet1.851.93
Grosvenor1.811.91
LeoVegas1.811.91
LeoVegas1.801.90
NordicBet1.821.95
Pinnacle1.86Best price: 1.97
PMU1.711.81
Tipico1.771.93
Unibet1.811.91
Unibet1.811.91
William Hill1.911.83

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Both teams to score

no-vig from William Hill alone · 5 books quote this market · margin removed 7.5%

  • Both teams score

    1.67 at Betfred +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.8055.7% implieddifference −4.2pp

  • Not both teams score

    2.12 at LeoVegas +2

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.2644.3% implieddifference −2.9pp

Both teams score held from 1.67 to 1.67 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.621.902.1725 Sept, 10 UTC28 Sept, 09 UTC
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 5 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 5 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
BookBoth teams scoreNot both teams scoreCollected
BetfredBest price: 1.672.10
LeoVegas1.64Best price: 2.12
LiveScore Bet1.642.12
Virgin Bet1.642.12
William Hill1.672.10

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

  • Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
  • Rest: Preston North End 21d, Millwall 21d since last match.
  • League scoring baseline: 2.5 goals/game.
  • Home advantage applied for Preston North End.
  • Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Draw

Match result+0.6pp differencecombined

3.55 at LeoVegas

combined fair 3.4831 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 29%model 30% · market 29% (model vs market +1.0pp)

estimate 29% · price implies 28% · +2.1% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Draw at 29%; best collected price 3.55 at leovegas_se implies 28% — a +0.6pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Preston North End vs Millwall?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Millwall the most likely outcome at 37%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 63%.

How does Clauseground predict Preston North End vs Millwall?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.

Probabilities are labeled by source — market, model, or combined. How the model works →