League intelligence
EFL Championship
Market-implied probability, an independent model, and best collected prices for the EFL Championship.
This hub covers EFL Championship matches by stripping the bookmaker margin from a complete reference market, leaving a no-vig market probability you can read directly. Alongside it sits a separate, independent statistical model probability, so you can see where the two agree and where they diverge. It also shows the best price we collected for each outcome with its venue and timestamp, plus an AI analyst that talks through what the numbers mean and the uncertainty behind them.
On the board
- Southampton vs Derby County68% · 19% · 14%
- Millwall vs Queens Park Rangers37% · 27% · 35%
- Norwich City vs Cardiff City55% · 21% · 24%
- Stoke City vs Birmingham City33% · 28% · 39%
- Bolton Wanderers vs Portsmouth33% · 28% · 38%
- Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Charlton Athletic72% · 17% · 11%
- Lincoln City vs Wrexham AFC33% · 29% · 38%
- West Ham United vs Preston North End79% · 13% · 8%
Recent results
Current value
Queens Park Rangers
Match result+0.7pp differencereference market2.88 at LeoVegas
no-vig 2.8336 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference
reference market estimate 35%model 23% · market 35% (model vs market −12.8pp)estimate 35% · price implies 35% · +1.9% expected return if the estimate is right
No-vig reference market puts Queens Park Rangers at 35%; best collected price 2.88 at leovegas_se implies 35% — a +0.7pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
priced
Charlton Athletic
Match result+0.8pp differencereference market10.00 at LeoVegas
no-vig 9.2636 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference
reference market estimate 11%model 15% · market 11% (model vs market +3.8pp)estimate 11% · price implies 10% · +8.0% expected return if the estimate is right
No-vig reference market puts Charlton Athletic at 11%; best collected price 10.00 at leovegas_se implies 10% — a +0.8pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
priced
A difference between the model and the market is something to investigate, not a guaranteed edge. Check the venue price and timestamp before acting.
What to know about EFL Championship markets
A tightly packed division
The Championship is widely regarded as competitive, with narrow gaps between many sides and form that can shift quickly across a demanding fixture calendar. Because sides are often closely matched, a model-versus-market gap is easy to over-interpret, so it deserves careful reading rather than a quick conclusion.
Where the goals sit
Matches in this competition average roughly 2.5 goals, which is the reference point our totals comparison starts from. Whether a specific fixture leans over or under that line is exactly the kind of question the model and the no-vig market are set up to frame.
Prices move on team news
Championship markets are widely covered, but prices can move sharply on team news, rotation and the congested midweek schedule. Because we timestamp the best collected price and record its venue, you can see when a number was captured rather than assume it still stands.
Best price ran 5.45% above average
Across 3,579 completed EFL Championship matches with a full closing price set, the best surveyed price was 5.45% higher than the market average for the same outcome (measured 11 August 2026). That is a property of the market, not a record of returns: the best price is an upper bound taken across every surveyed book, including ones that limit winning accounts and quotes that were never simultaneously obtainable. Clauseground does not currently claim a proven historical edge.
EFL Championship questions
How does Clauseground handle EFL Championship totals?
The competition averages around 2.5 goals per match, and that figure is the backdrop for the totals comparison rather than a forecast for any single game. For each fixture we show the no-vig market probability for over and under alongside the independent model probability, then leave the judgement to you. A gap is a prompt to investigate the reasons, such as form, absences or style of play, not a signal to bet.
Are favourites reliable in such a competitive league?
Clauseground does not label favourites as reliable or unreliable; it shows the market-implied probability and a separate model probability for each side. In a division where results are often close, the two can disagree, and that disagreement is information to examine rather than act on blindly. Passing on a match is always a valid outcome.
What does a model-versus-market gap tell me?
It tells you that the independent model and the margin-free market see a fixture differently, and nothing more certain than that. The gap is a starting question, and the AI analyst is there to explain the numbers and the uncertainty around them. Outcomes remain uncertain, so treat any figure as decision-support and gamble responsibly. 18+.
Clauseground is decision support, not tips. It shows the market view, an independent model view, and the available price with its source and timestamp — so you can judge EFL Championship prices for yourself. Read the methodology, the public performance framework and what line shopping is worth, or browse all leagues.
Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.