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EFL Championship

Market-implied probability, an independent model, and best collected prices for the EFL Championship.

This hub covers EFL Championship matches by stripping the bookmaker margin from a complete reference market, leaving a no-vig market probability you can read directly. Alongside it sits a separate, independent statistical model probability, so you can see where the two agree and where they diverge. It also shows the best price we collected for each outcome with its venue and timestamp, plus an AI analyst that talks through what the numbers mean and the uncertainty behind them.

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On the board

Recent results

Current value

  1. Under 2.5

    Totals+2.3pp differencecombined

    2.25 at Betsson

    combined fair 2.1413 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

    combined estimate 47%model 58% · market 43% (model vs market +15.2pp)

    estimate 47% · price implies 44% · +5.2% expected return if the estimate is right

    Combined estimate puts Under 2.5 at 47%; best collected price 2.25 at betsson implies 44% — a +2.3pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

    priced

  2. Burnley

    Match result+1.4pp differencecombined

    2.40 at LeoVegas

    combined fair 2.3230 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

    combined estimate 43%model 50% · market 41% (model vs market +8.8pp)

    estimate 43% · price implies 42% · +3.3% expected return if the estimate is right

    Combined estimate puts Burnley at 43%; best collected price 2.40 at leovegas_se implies 42% — a +1.4pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

    priced

  3. Both teams to score — No

    Both teams to score+1.3pp differencecombined

    2.40 at LeoVegas

    combined fair 2.335 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

    combined estimate 43%model 50% · market 39% (model vs market +11.5pp)

    estimate 43% · price implies 42% · +3.1% expected return if the estimate is right

    Combined estimate puts Both teams to score — No at 43%; best collected price 2.40 at leovegas implies 42% — a +1.3pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

    priced

  4. Derby County

    Match result+1.4pp differencecombined

    2.85 at Fanatics

    combined fair 2.7431 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

    combined estimate 36%model 42% · market 35% (model vs market +7.6pp)

    estimate 36% · price implies 35% · +3.9% expected return if the estimate is right

    Combined estimate puts Derby County at 36%; best collected price 2.85 at fanatics implies 35% — a +1.4pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

    priced

  5. Draw

    Match result+1.5pp differencecombined

    3.60 at Betfred

    combined fair 3.4131 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

    combined estimate 29%model 31% · market 29% (model vs market +2.6pp)

    estimate 29% · price implies 28% · +5.4% expected return if the estimate is right

    Combined estimate puts Draw at 29%; best collected price 3.60 at betfred_uk implies 28% — a +1.5pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

    priced

  6. Under 2.5

    Totals+0.6pp differencecombined

    1.97 at Tipico

    combined fair 1.9515 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

    combined estimate 51%model 57% · market 50% (model vs market +7.1pp)

    estimate 51% · price implies 51% · +1.2% expected return if the estimate is right

    Combined estimate puts Under 2.5 at 51%; best collected price 1.97 at tipico_de implies 51% — a +0.6pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

    priced

A difference between the model and the market is something to investigate, not a guaranteed edge. Check the venue price and timestamp before acting.

What to know about EFL Championship markets

A tightly packed division

The Championship is widely regarded as competitive, with narrow gaps between many sides and form that can shift quickly across a demanding fixture calendar. Because sides are often closely matched, a model-versus-market gap is easy to over-interpret, so it deserves careful reading rather than a quick conclusion.

Where the goals sit

Matches in this competition average roughly 2.5 goals, which is the reference point our totals comparison starts from. Whether a specific fixture leans over or under that line is exactly the kind of question the model and the no-vig market are set up to frame.

Prices move on team news

Championship markets are widely covered, but prices can move sharply on team news, rotation and the congested midweek schedule. Because we timestamp the best collected price and record its venue, you can see when a number was captured rather than assume it still stands.

Best price ran 5.45% above average

Across 3,579 completed EFL Championship matches with a full closing price set, the best surveyed price was 5.45% higher than the market average for the same outcome (measured 11 August 2026). That is a property of the market, not a record of returns: the best price is an upper bound taken across every surveyed book, including ones that limit winning accounts and quotes that were never simultaneously obtainable. Clauseground does not currently claim a proven historical edge.

EFL Championship questions

How does Clauseground handle EFL Championship totals?

The competition averages around 2.5 goals per match, and that figure is the backdrop for the totals comparison rather than a forecast for any single game. For each fixture we show the no-vig market probability for over and under alongside the independent model probability, then leave the judgement to you. A gap is a prompt to investigate the reasons, such as form, absences or style of play, not a signal to bet.

Are favourites reliable in such a competitive league?

Clauseground does not label favourites as reliable or unreliable; it shows the market-implied probability and a separate model probability for each side. In a division where results are often close, the two can disagree, and that disagreement is information to examine rather than act on blindly. Passing on a match is always a valid outcome.

What does a model-versus-market gap tell me?

It tells you that the independent model and the margin-free market see a fixture differently, and nothing more certain than that. The gap is a starting question, and the AI analyst is there to explain the numbers and the uncertainty around them. Outcomes remain uncertain, so treat any figure as decision-support and gamble responsibly. 18+.

Clauseground is decision support, not tips. It shows the market view, an independent model view, and the available price with its source and timestamp — so you can judge EFL Championship prices for yourself. Read the methodology, the public performance framework and what line shopping is worth, or browse all leagues.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.