League intelligence
EFL Championship
Market-implied probability, an independent model, and best collected prices for the EFL Championship.
This hub covers EFL Championship matches by stripping the bookmaker margin from a complete reference market, leaving a no-vig market probability you can read directly. Alongside it sits a separate, independent statistical model probability, so you can see where the two agree and where they diverge. It also shows the best price we collected for each outcome with its venue and timestamp, plus an AI analyst that talks through what the numbers mean and the uncertainty behind them.
On the board
- Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Blackburn Rovers61% · 23% · 17%
- Bolton Wanderers vs Preston North End41% · 29% · 30%
- Bristol City vs Millwall38% · 29% · 34%
- Charlton Athletic vs Derby County35% · 29% · 35%
- Middlesbrough vs Lincoln City69% · 19% · 12%
- Norwich City vs West Bromwich Albion47% · 28% · 26%
- Portsmouth vs Queens Park Rangers42% · 28% · 30%
- Stoke City vs Swansea City39% · 29% · 32%
Current value
Lincoln City
Match result+1.6pp differenceThe best collected price implies about a 10% chance. Clauseground's combined estimate puts it at 12% — about 2 percentage points higher. Potential value, not a promise.
combined estimate 12%model 14% · market 11% (model vs market +2.7pp)0.4u @ ¼-Kelly+15.3% est. EV9.76 · BetssonCombined estimate puts Lincoln City at 12%; best collected price 9.76 at betsson implies 10% — a +1.6pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Draw
Match result+1.0pp differenceThe best collected price implies about a 27% chance. Clauseground's combined estimate puts it at 28% — about 1 percentage point higher. Potential value, not a promise.
combined estimate 28%model 28% · market 27% (model vs market +0.9pp)0.3u @ ¼-Kelly+3.8% est. EV3.75 · CoolbetCombined estimate puts Draw at 28%; best collected price 3.75 at coolbet implies 27% — a +1.0pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Draw
Match result+0.8pp differenceThe best collected price implies about a 18% chance. Clauseground's combined estimate puts it at 19% — about 1 percentage point higher. Potential value, not a promise.
combined estimate 19%model 23% · market 18% (model vs market +5.5pp)0.3u @ ¼-Kelly+4.5% est. EV5.50 · FanaticsCombined estimate puts Draw at 19%; best collected price 5.50 at fanatics implies 18% — a +0.8pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Burnley
Match result+0.5pp differenceThe best collected price implies about a 34% chance. Clauseground's combined estimate puts it at 35% — about 1 percentage point higher. Potential value, not a promise.
combined estimate 35%model 40% · market 33% (model vs market +7.3pp)0.2u @ ¼-Kelly+1.6% est. EV2.92 · BetssonCombined estimate puts Burnley at 35%; best collected price 2.92 at betsson implies 34% — a +0.5pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
A difference between the model and the market is something to investigate, not a guaranteed edge. Check the venue price and timestamp before acting.
What to know about EFL Championship markets
A tightly packed division
The Championship is widely regarded as competitive, with narrow gaps between many sides and form that can shift quickly across a demanding fixture calendar. Because sides are often closely matched, a model-versus-market gap is easy to over-interpret, so it deserves careful reading rather than a quick conclusion.
Where the goals sit
Matches in this competition average roughly 2.5 goals, which is the reference point our totals comparison starts from. Whether a specific fixture leans over or under that line is exactly the kind of question the model and the no-vig market are set up to frame.
Prices move on team news
Championship markets are widely covered, but prices can move sharply on team news, rotation and the congested midweek schedule. Because we timestamp the best collected price and record its venue, you can see when a number was captured rather than assume it still stands.
EFL Championship questions
How does Clauseground handle EFL Championship totals?
The competition averages around 2.5 goals per match, and that figure is the backdrop for the totals comparison rather than a forecast for any single game. For each fixture we show the no-vig market probability for over and under alongside the independent model probability, then leave the judgement to you. A gap is a prompt to investigate the reasons, such as form, absences or style of play, not a signal to bet.
Are favourites reliable in such a competitive league?
Clauseground does not label favourites as reliable or unreliable; it shows the market-implied probability and a separate model probability for each side. In a division where results are often close, the two can disagree, and that disagreement is information to examine rather than act on blindly. Passing on a match is always a valid outcome.
What does a model-versus-market gap tell me?
It tells you that the independent model and the margin-free market see a fixture differently, and nothing more certain than that. The gap is a starting question, and the AI analyst is there to explain the numbers and the uncertainty around them. Outcomes remain uncertain, so treat any figure as decision-support and gamble responsibly. 18+.
Clauseground is decision support, not tips. It shows the market view, an independent model view, and the available price with its source and timestamp — so you can judge EFL Championship prices for yourself. Read the methodology and the public performance framework, or browse all leagues.
Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.