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EFL Championship

West Ham United vs Queens Park Rangers — market analysis & odds

· London Stadium, London

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

  1. 1 · Most likely result

    West Ham United

    61% means we estimate about 61 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.

    Overall: West Ham United 61% · Draw 21% · Queens Park Rangers 17%

  2. 2 · Understand the price

    Queens Park Rangers

    6.00 decimal odds

    Leovegas se · US +500

    collected

    This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 6.00 units total if successful.

  3. 3 · Compare probability

    +0.7 percentage points

    Our estimate is 17%; the price implies 17%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.

    Potential value to investigate

Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

West Ham Unitedmodel 62% · market 61% (model vs market +1.0pp)
Drawmodel 22% · market 21% (model vs market +0.6pp)
Queens Park Rangersmodel 16% · market 18% (model vs market −1.7pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 32 books quote this market · margin removed 5.6%

  • West Ham United

    1.56 at Codere +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.6461.1% implieddifference −3.0pp

  • Draw

    4.60 at LeoVegas

    collected

    no-vig reference 4.7221.2% implieddifference −0.6pp

  • Queens Park Rangers

    6.00 at LeoVegas

    collected

    no-vig reference 5.6317.8% implieddifference +1.1pp

West Ham United held from 1.55 to 1.55 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

1.023.836.6425 Sept, 10 UTC28 Sept, 09 UTC
West Ham UnitedDrawQueens Park Rangers
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 30–32 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 32 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
BookWest Ham UnitedDrawQueens Park RangersCollected
888sport1.534.205.00
Betclic1.443.954.70
Betfair Sportsbook1.504.505.50
Betfred1.534.505.50
BetRivers1.484.205.40
Betsson1.554.305.35
Bovada1.534.405.40
BoyleSports1.504.334.75
CodereBest price: 1.564.505.40
Coolbet1.534.505.75
DraftKings1.544.405.25
Fanatics1.534.505.50
FanDuel1.484.505.70
Grosvenor1.504.305.50
LeoVegas1.54Best price: 4.60Best price: 6.00
LeoVegas1.524.335.20
LiveScore Bet1.484.205.40
Marathonbet1.524.335.35
NordicBet1.564.325.38
Paddy Power1.444.335.50
Pinnacle1.554.475.33
PMU1.474.205.40
Sky Bet1.504.505.50
Tipico1.474.405.50
Unibet1.544.355.25
Unibet1.504.355.60
Unibet1.504.355.60
Unibet1.424.004.80
Virgin Bet1.494.305.50
William Hill1.554.205.00
Winamax1.504.304.80
Winamax1.443.954.40

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 3.5

10 books pricing this market · no reference book quoted every outcome, so no no-vig price is shown

  • Over 3.5

    2.38 at Bovada

    collected

    no-vig reference —difference —

  • Under 3.5

    1.60 at Bovada

    collected

    no-vig reference —difference —

No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.

1.511.992.4725 Sept, 10 UTC28 Sept, 09 UTC
Over 3.5Under 3.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 5–10 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected.
Every book’s current price — 10 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 3.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 3.5Under 3.5Collected
BetRivers2.331.56
BovadaBest price: 2.38Best price: 1.60
Codere2.281.53
Grosvenor2.321.55
LeoVegas2.321.55
LeoVegas2.301.55
PMU2.201.47
Tipico2.251.55
Unibet2.321.55
Unibet2.321.55

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

no-vig from William Hill alone · 8 books quote this market · margin removed 6.5%

  • Over 2.5

    1.58 at Betsson

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.6560.6% implieddifference −2.7pp

  • Under 2.5

    2.40 at Grosvenor +3

    collected · 2h old than this market’s newest quote

    no-vig reference 2.5439.4% implieddifference −2.2pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.55 to 1.55 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.481.992.5025 Sept, 10 UTC28 Sept, 09 UTC
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3–8 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 8 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 2.5Under 2.5Collected
BetssonBest price: 1.582.39
Grosvenor1.51Best price: 2.40
LeoVegas1.512.40
NordicBet1.552.38
PMU1.432.25
Unibet1.512.40
Unibet1.512.40
William Hill1.552.38

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Both teams to score

no-vig from William Hill alone · 5 books quote this market · margin removed 7.5%

  • Both teams score

    1.67 at Betfred +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.8055.7% implieddifference −4.2pp

  • Not both teams score

    2.15 at LeoVegas +2

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.2644.3% implieddifference −2.2pp

Both teams score held from 1.67 to 1.67 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.611.922.2225 Sept, 10 UTC28 Sept, 09 UTC
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 5 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 5 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
BookBoth teams scoreNot both teams scoreCollected
BetfredBest price: 1.672.10
LeoVegas1.61Best price: 2.15
LiveScore Bet1.632.15
Virgin Bet1.632.15
William Hill1.672.10

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

  • Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
  • Rest: West Ham United 20d, Queens Park Rangers 20d since last match.
  • League scoring baseline: 2.5 goals/game.
  • Home advantage applied for West Ham United.
  • Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Queens Park Rangers

Match result+0.7pp differencecombined

6.00 at LeoVegas

combined fair 5.7731 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 17%model 16% · market 18% (model vs market −1.7pp)

estimate 17% · price implies 17% · +4.1% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Queens Park Rangers at 17%; best collected price 6.00 at leovegas_se implies 17% — a +0.7pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win West Ham United vs Queens Park Rangers?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes West Ham United the most likely outcome at 61%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 39%.

How does Clauseground predict West Ham United vs Queens Park Rangers?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.

Probabilities are labeled by source — market, model, or combined. How the model works →