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Premier League

Tottenham Hotspur vs Coventry City — market analysis & odds

· Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

  1. 1 · Most likely result

    Tottenham Hotspur

    60% means we estimate about 60 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.

    Overall: Tottenham Hotspur 60% · Draw 22% · Coventry City 18%

  2. 2 · Understand the price

    Coventry City

    6.43 decimal odds

    Betsson · US +543

    collected

    This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 6.43 units total if successful.

  3. 3 · Compare probability

    +2.7 percentage points

    Our estimate is 18%; the price implies 16%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.

    Potential value to investigate

Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Tottenham Hotspurmodel 49% · market 63% (model vs market −14.7pp)
Drawmodel 26% · market 21% (model vs market +5.2pp)
Coventry Citymodel 25% · market 16% (model vs market +9.5pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 31 books quote this market · margin removed 5.6%

  • Tottenham Hotspur

    1.51 at Betsson

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.5863.1% implieddifference −3.1pp

  • Draw

    4.70 at BetRivers +6

    collected

    no-vig reference 4.8220.8% implieddifference −0.5pp

  • Coventry City

    6.43 at Betsson

    collected

    no-vig reference 6.2016.1% implieddifference +0.6pp

Tottenham Hotspur held from 1.50 to 1.50 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

0.923.977.0225 Sept, 10 UTC28 Sept, 09 UTC
Tottenham HotspurDrawCoventry City
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 31 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 31 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
BookTottenham HotspurDrawCoventry CityCollected
888sport1.504.205.75
Betclic1.424.355.50
Betfred1.504.606.00
BetRivers1.50Best price: 4.706.25
BetssonBest price: 1.514.27Best price: 6.43
Betway1.454.505.75
Bovada1.504.505.60
BoyleSports1.444.336.00
DraftKings1.484.505.75
Fanatics1.484.506.00
FanDuel1.484.605.90
Grosvenor1.504.706.25
LeoVegas1.504.706.25
LeoVegas1.454.505.60
LiveScore Bet1.464.405.80
Marathonbet1.504.556.40
MyBookie1.464.505.70
NordicBet1.504.256.40
Paddy Power1.504.505.50
Pinnacle1.504.565.87
PMU1.434.255.60
Sky Bet1.504.505.75
Tipico1.474.706.00
Unibet1.504.706.25
Unibet1.504.706.25
Unibet1.484.605.75
Unibet1.414.305.40
Virgin Bet1.464.405.80
William Hill1.504.336.00
Winamax1.454.705.40
Winamax1.394.204.90

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

no-vig from William Hill alone · 7 books quote this market · margin removed 8.0%

  • Over 2.5

    1.59 at Betsson

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.6759.7% implieddifference −3.2pp

  • Under 2.5

    2.43 at Bovada

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.4840.3% implieddifference −0.9pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.55 to 1.55 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.492.012.5325 Sept, 10 UTC28 Sept, 09 UTC
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 7 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 7 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 2.5Under 2.5Collected
BetRivers1.572.33
BetssonBest price: 1.592.40
Bovada1.57Best price: 2.43
LeoVegas1.522.30
MyBookie1.542.32
NordicBet1.582.38
William Hill1.552.30

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 3.5

6 books pricing this market · no reference book quoted every outcome, so no no-vig price is shown

  • Over 3.5

    2.48 at Grosvenor +3

    collected

    no-vig reference —difference —

  • Under 3.5

    1.57 at Tipico

    collected

    no-vig reference —difference —

No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.

1.462.022.5925 Sept, 10 UTC28 Sept, 09 UTC
Over 3.5Under 3.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 6 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected.
Every book’s current price — 6 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 3.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 3.5Under 3.5Collected
GrosvenorBest price: 2.481.51
LeoVegas2.481.53
PMU2.331.43
Tipico2.30Best price: 1.57
Unibet2.481.53
Unibet2.481.53

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Both teams to score

no-vig from William Hill alone · 6 books quote this market · margin removed 7.5%

  • Both teams score

    1.70 at LiveScore Bet +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.8055.7% implieddifference −3.1pp

  • Not both teams score

    2.10 at Betfred +2

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.2644.3% implieddifference −3.3pp

Both teams score held from 1.67 to 1.67 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.651.902.1525 Sept, 10 UTC28 Sept, 09 UTC
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 6 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 6 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
BookBoth teams scoreNot both teams scoreCollected
Betfred1.67Best price: 2.10
LeoVegas1.672.08
LiveScore BetBest price: 1.702.04
Paddy Power1.652.10
Virgin Bet1.702.04
William Hill1.672.10

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

  • Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
  • Rest: Tottenham Hotspur 30d, Coventry City 30d since last match.
  • League scoring baseline: 2.85 goals/game.
  • Home advantage applied for Tottenham Hotspur.
  • Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Coventry City

Match result+2.6pp differencecombined

6.40 at Marathonbet

combined fair 5.4830 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 18%model 25% · market 16% (model vs market +9.5pp)

estimate 18% · price implies 16% · +16.9% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Coventry City at 18%; best collected price 6.40 at marathonbet implies 16% — a +2.6pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Draw

Match result+1.1pp differencecombined

4.80 at Tipico

combined fair 4.5530 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 22%model 26% · market 21% (model vs market +5.2pp)

estimate 22% · price implies 21% · +5.5% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Draw at 22%; best collected price 4.80 at tipico_de implies 21% — a +1.2pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Tottenham Hotspur vs Coventry City?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Tottenham Hotspur the most likely outcome at 60%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 40%.

How does Clauseground predict Tottenham Hotspur vs Coventry City?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.

Probabilities are labeled by source — market, model, or combined. How the model works →