League intelligence
Premier League
No-vig market probabilities, an independent model, and best collected prices for Premier League fixtures.
This hub covers every Premier League fixture through three separate lenses: a no-vig probability stripped from a complete reference market, an independent statistical model, and the best price we have collected, each labelled with its venue and time. Where the model and the market disagree, that gap is a prompt to investigate, not a signal to bet. An AI analyst talks through the numbers behind each match so you can judge the comparison yourself.
On the board
- Arsenal vs Coventry City80% · 13% · 7%
- Hull City vs Manchester United15% · 22% · 63%
- Everton vs Crystal Palace44% · 28% · 28%
- Ipswich Town vs Sunderland34% · 29% · 37%
- Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United43% · 28% · 29%
- Brentford vs Tottenham Hotspur42% · 26% · 33%
- Manchester City vs Bournemouth65% · 20% · 16%
- Brighton and Hove Albion vs Aston Villa41% · 27% · 32%
Current value
Both teams to score — Yes
Both teams to score+5.1pp differenceThe best collected price implies about a 39% chance. Clauseground's combined estimate puts it at 44% — about 5 percentage points higher. Potential value, not a promise.
combined estimate 44%model 52% · market 39% (model vs market +13.1pp)2.1u @ ¼-Kelly+13.1% est. EV2.58 · FanDuelCombined estimate puts Both teams to score — Yes at 44%; best collected price 2.58 at fanduel implies 39% — a +5.1pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Both teams to score — Yes
Both teams to score+2.6pp differenceThe best collected price implies about a 52% chance. Clauseground's combined estimate puts it at 54% — about 3 percentage points higher. Potential value, not a promise.
combined estimate 54%model 61% · market 51% (model vs market +10.5pp)1.4u @ ¼-Kelly+5.1% est. EV1.93 · FanDuelCombined estimate puts Both teams to score — Yes at 54%; best collected price 1.93 at fanduel implies 52% — a +2.6pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Under 2.5
Totals+1.1pp differenceThe best collected price implies about a 50% chance. Clauseground's combined estimate puts it at 51% — about 1 percentage point higher. Potential value, not a promise.
combined estimate 51%model 50% · market 51% (model vs market −0.2pp)0.6u @ ¼-Kelly+2.2% est. EV2.02 · BetRiversCombined estimate puts Under 2.5 at 51%; best collected price 2.02 at betrivers implies 50% — a +1.1pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Draw
Match result+1.7pp differenceThe best collected price implies about a 12% chance. Clauseground's combined estimate puts it at 13% — about 2 percentage points higher. Potential value, not a promise.
combined estimate 13%model 18% · market 12% (model vs market +6.1pp)0.5u @ ¼-Kelly+14.7% est. EV8.50 · Tipico deCombined estimate puts Draw at 13%; best collected price 8.50 at tipico_de implies 12% — a +1.7pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Hull City
Match result+1.6pp differenceThe best collected price implies about a 13% chance. Clauseground's combined estimate puts it at 15% — about 2 percentage points higher. Potential value, not a promise.
combined estimate 15%model 19% · market 13% (model vs market +5.9pp)0.5u @ ¼-Kelly+11.9% est. EV7.50 · Tipico deCombined estimate puts Hull City at 15%; best collected price 7.50 at tipico_de implies 13% — a +1.6pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
Fulham
Match result+0.8pp differenceThe best collected price implies about a 30% chance. Clauseground's combined estimate puts it at 31% — about 1 percentage point higher. Potential value, not a promise.
combined estimate 31%model 32% · market 31% (model vs market +1.0pp)0.3u @ ¼-Kelly+2.6% est. EV3.30 · FanaticsCombined estimate puts Fulham at 31%; best collected price 3.30 at fanatics implies 30% — a +0.8pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
A difference between the model and the market is something to investigate, not a guaranteed edge. Check the venue price and timestamp before acting.
What to know about Premier League markets
Totals sit near 2.85 goals
Premier League matches average roughly 2.85 goals per game across a season, and that figure anchors how the model prices over and under markets. Individual fixtures vary widely, so the season-long average is context rather than a forecast for any one match.
Deep and heavily traded markets
The Premier League is among the most widely priced football competitions, so its reference markets tend to be liquid and bookmaker margins comparatively tight. The no-vig probability therefore rests on a broad, actively updated market rather than a thin one.
Favourites are not certainties
Clear favourites still drop points against mid-table and lower sides, and the model carries that uncertainty rather than assuming the stronger team wins. A short price is a probability to weigh, not a settled result.
Premier League questions
How does the model treat Premier League totals?
It prices over and under markets from the competition's scoring profile, taking the season-long average of roughly 2.85 goals per match as a baseline before adjusting for the specific fixture. That model probability is shown next to the no-vig market number for the same line. Any difference between the two is something to examine, not a guaranteed edge.
What does a gap between model and market mean for a favourite?
It means our independent model and the margin-free market disagree on how likely that outcome is. The gap can reflect information the model has not captured, or a market that has moved for its own reasons, so it is a starting point for investigation rather than a recommendation. Clauseground does not tell you to bet, and choosing to pass on a fixture is a valid outcome.
Where do the prices and timestamps come from?
Each fixture shows the best price we have collected from the venues we track, labelled with where it was seen and when. Prices move, so the timestamp tells you how current a figure is, and a stale price is a reason to re-check before acting. We show the price as collected and do not promise it will still be available.
Clauseground is decision support, not tips. It shows the market view, an independent model view, and the available price with its source and timestamp — so you can judge Premier League prices for yourself. Read the methodology and the public performance framework, or browse all leagues.
Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.