League intelligence
Premier League
No-vig market probabilities, an independent model, and best collected prices for Premier League fixtures.
This hub covers every Premier League fixture through three separate lenses: a no-vig probability stripped from a complete reference market, an independent statistical model, and the best price we have collected, each labelled with its venue and time. Where the model and the market disagree, that gap is a prompt to investigate, not a signal to bet. An AI analyst talks through the numbers behind each match so you can judge the comparison yourself.
On the board
- Manchester City vs Fulham67% · 18% · 14%
- Aston Villa vs Sunderland54% · 25% · 21%
- Coventry City vs Crystal Palace39% · 27% · 34%
- Tottenham Hotspur vs Ipswich Town62% · 21% · 17%
- Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest48% · 27% · 26%
- Chelsea vs Leeds United51% · 25% · 24%
- Newcastle United vs Arsenal17% · 23% · 60%
- Hull City vs Brighton and Hove Albion16% · 21% · 63%
Recent results
Current value
Leeds United
Match result+1.2pp differencereference market4.40 at Unibet
no-vig 4.1844 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference
reference market estimate 24%model 18% · market 24% (model vs market −5.6pp)estimate 24% · price implies 23% · +5.2% expected return if the estimate is right
No-vig reference market puts Leeds United at 24%; best collected price 4.40 at unibet_nl implies 23% — a +1.2pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
priced
Everton
Match result+0.8pp differencereference market3.70 at Unibet
no-vig 3.5943 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference
reference market estimate 28%model 28% · market 28% (model vs market −0.0pp)estimate 28% · price implies 27% · +3.1% expected return if the estimate is right
No-vig reference market puts Everton at 28%; best collected price 3.70 at unibet_nl implies 27% — a +0.8pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
priced
Under 2.5
Totals+0.6pp differencereference market2.17 at BetUS
no-vig 2.1420 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference
reference market estimate 47%model 44% · market 47% (model vs market −2.5pp)estimate 47% · price implies 46% · +1.3% expected return if the estimate is right
No-vig reference market puts Under 2.5 at 47%; best collected price 2.17 at betus implies 46% — a +0.6pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
priced
Draw
Match result+0.7pp differencereference market3.58 at Marathonbet
no-vig 3.4914 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference
reference market estimate 29%model 27% · market 29% (model vs market −1.2pp)estimate 29% · price implies 28% · +2.6% expected return if the estimate is right
No-vig reference market puts Draw at 29%; best collected price 3.58 at marathonbet implies 28% — a +0.7pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
priced
Both teams to score — No
Both teams to score+0.6pp differencereference market2.50 at Sky Bet
no-vig 2.469 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference
reference market estimate 41%model 43% · market 41% (model vs market +2.8pp)estimate 41% · price implies 40% · +1.4% expected return if the estimate is right
No-vig reference market puts Both teams to score — No at 41%; best collected price 2.50 at skybet implies 40% — a +0.6pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
priced
Draw
Match result+0.7pp differencereference market4.10 at Unibet
no-vig 3.9944 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference
reference market estimate 25%model 27% · market 25% (model vs market +2.4pp)estimate 25% · price implies 24% · +2.7% expected return if the estimate is right
No-vig reference market puts Draw at 25%; best collected price 4.10 at unibet_nl implies 24% — a +0.7pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.
priced
A difference between the model and the market is something to investigate, not a guaranteed edge. Check the venue price and timestamp before acting.
What to know about Premier League markets
Totals sit near 2.85 goals
Premier League matches average roughly 2.85 goals per game across a season, and that figure anchors how the model prices over and under markets. Individual fixtures vary widely, so the season-long average is context rather than a forecast for any one match.
Deep and heavily traded markets
The Premier League is among the most widely priced football competitions, so its reference markets tend to be liquid and bookmaker margins comparatively tight. The no-vig probability therefore rests on a broad, actively updated market rather than a thin one.
Favourites are not certainties
Clear favourites still drop points against mid-table and lower sides, and the model carries that uncertainty rather than assuming the stronger team wins. A short price is a probability to weigh, not a settled result.
Best price ran 6.21% above average
Across 2,490 completed Premier League matches with a full closing price set, the best surveyed price was 6.21% higher than the market average for the same outcome (measured 11 August 2026). That is a property of the market, not a record of returns: the best price is an upper bound taken across every surveyed book, including ones that limit winning accounts and quotes that were never simultaneously obtainable. Clauseground does not currently claim a proven historical edge.
Premier League questions
How does the model treat Premier League totals?
It prices over and under markets from the competition's scoring profile, taking the season-long average of roughly 2.85 goals per match as a baseline before adjusting for the specific fixture. That model probability is shown next to the no-vig market number for the same line. Any difference between the two is something to examine, not a guaranteed edge.
What does a gap between model and market mean for a favourite?
It means our independent model and the margin-free market disagree on how likely that outcome is. The gap can reflect information the model has not captured, or a market that has moved for its own reasons, so it is a starting point for investigation rather than a recommendation. Clauseground does not tell you to bet, and choosing to pass on a fixture is a valid outcome.
Where do the prices and timestamps come from?
Each fixture shows the best price we have collected from the venues we track, labelled with where it was seen and when. Prices move, so the timestamp tells you how current a figure is, and a stale price is a reason to re-check before acting. We show the price as collected and do not promise it will still be available.
Clauseground is decision support, not tips. It shows the market view, an independent model view, and the available price with its source and timestamp — so you can judge Premier League prices for yourself. Read the methodology, the public performance framework and what line shopping is worth, or browse all leagues.
Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.