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League intelligence

Premier League

No-vig market probabilities, an independent model, and best collected prices for Premier League fixtures.

This hub covers every Premier League fixture through three separate lenses: a no-vig probability stripped from a complete reference market, an independent statistical model, and the best price we have collected, each labelled with its venue and time. Where the model and the market disagree, that gap is a prompt to investigate, not a signal to bet. An AI analyst talks through the numbers behind each match so you can judge the comparison yourself.

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On the board

Recent results

Current value

  1. Coventry City

    Match result+3.0pp differencecombined

    6.43 at Betsson

    combined fair 5.3931 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

    combined estimate 19%model 26% · market 16% (model vs market +9.7pp)

    estimate 19% · price implies 16% · +19.3% expected return if the estimate is right

    Combined estimate puts Coventry City at 19%; best collected price 6.43 at betsson implies 16% — a +3.0pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

    priced

  2. Aston Villa

    Match result+2.2pp differencecombined

    2.67 at Coolbet

    combined fair 2.5243 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

    combined estimate 40%model 50% · market 36% (model vs market +13.5pp)

    estimate 40% · price implies 37% · +5.8% expected return if the estimate is right

    Combined estimate puts Aston Villa at 40%; best collected price 2.67 at coolbet implies 37% — a +2.2pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

    priced

  3. Over 2.5

    Totals+1.4pp differencecombined

    1.78 at Betsson

    combined fair 1.7419 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

    combined estimate 58%model 65% · market 55% (model vs market +9.8pp)

    estimate 58% · price implies 56% · +2.5% expected return if the estimate is right

    Combined estimate puts Over 2.5 at 58%; best collected price 1.78 at betsson implies 56% — a +1.4pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

    priced

  4. Both teams to score — Yes

    Both teams to score+1.3pp differencecombined

    2.10 at Paddy Power

    combined fair 2.048 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

    combined estimate 49%model 52% · market 47% (model vs market +4.6pp)

    estimate 49% · price implies 48% · +2.7% expected return if the estimate is right

    Combined estimate puts Both teams to score — Yes at 49%; best collected price 2.10 at paddypower implies 48% — a +1.3pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

    priced

  5. Sunderland

    Match result+1.5pp differencecombined

    3.10 at Tipico

    combined fair 2.9643 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

    combined estimate 34%model 37% · market 33% (model vs market +4.8pp)

    estimate 34% · price implies 32% · +4.8% expected return if the estimate is right

    Combined estimate puts Sunderland at 34%; best collected price 3.10 at tipico_de implies 32% — a +1.5pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

    priced

  6. Crystal Palace

    Match result+1.6pp differencecombined

    5.70 at FanDuel

    combined fair 5.2231 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

    combined estimate 19%model 24% · market 18% (model vs market +6.1pp)

    estimate 19% · price implies 18% · +9.2% expected return if the estimate is right

    Combined estimate puts Crystal Palace at 19%; best collected price 5.70 at fanduel implies 18% — a +1.6pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

    priced

A difference between the model and the market is something to investigate, not a guaranteed edge. Check the venue price and timestamp before acting.

What to know about Premier League markets

Totals sit near 2.85 goals

Premier League matches average roughly 2.85 goals per game across a season, and that figure anchors how the model prices over and under markets. Individual fixtures vary widely, so the season-long average is context rather than a forecast for any one match.

Deep and heavily traded markets

The Premier League is among the most widely priced football competitions, so its reference markets tend to be liquid and bookmaker margins comparatively tight. The no-vig probability therefore rests on a broad, actively updated market rather than a thin one.

Favourites are not certainties

Clear favourites still drop points against mid-table and lower sides, and the model carries that uncertainty rather than assuming the stronger team wins. A short price is a probability to weigh, not a settled result.

Best price ran 6.21% above average

Across 2,490 completed Premier League matches with a full closing price set, the best surveyed price was 6.21% higher than the market average for the same outcome (measured 11 August 2026). That is a property of the market, not a record of returns: the best price is an upper bound taken across every surveyed book, including ones that limit winning accounts and quotes that were never simultaneously obtainable. Clauseground does not currently claim a proven historical edge.

Premier League questions

How does the model treat Premier League totals?

It prices over and under markets from the competition's scoring profile, taking the season-long average of roughly 2.85 goals per match as a baseline before adjusting for the specific fixture. That model probability is shown next to the no-vig market number for the same line. Any difference between the two is something to examine, not a guaranteed edge.

What does a gap between model and market mean for a favourite?

It means our independent model and the margin-free market disagree on how likely that outcome is. The gap can reflect information the model has not captured, or a market that has moved for its own reasons, so it is a starting point for investigation rather than a recommendation. Clauseground does not tell you to bet, and choosing to pass on a fixture is a valid outcome.

Where do the prices and timestamps come from?

Each fixture shows the best price we have collected from the venues we track, labelled with where it was seen and when. Prices move, so the timestamp tells you how current a figure is, and a stale price is a reason to re-check before acting. We show the price as collected and do not promise it will still be available.

Clauseground is decision support, not tips. It shows the market view, an independent model view, and the available price with its source and timestamp — so you can judge Premier League prices for yourself. Read the methodology, the public performance framework and what line shopping is worth, or browse all leagues.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.