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Premier League

Leeds United vs Manchester United — market analysis & odds

· Elland Road, Leeds

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

  1. 1 · Most likely result

    Manchester United

    42% means we estimate about 42 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.

    Overall: Leeds United 32% · Draw 26% · Manchester United 42%

  2. 2 · Understand the price

    Manchester United

    2.45 decimal odds

    Nordicbet · US +145

    collected

    This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 2.45 units total if successful.

  3. 3 · Compare probability

    +1.4 percentage points

    Our estimate is 42%; the price implies 41%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.

    Potential value to investigate

Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Leeds Unitedmodel 25% · market 34% (model vs market −9.4pp)
Drawmodel 24% · market 27% (model vs market −2.1pp)
Manchester Unitedmodel 51% · market 39% (model vs market +11.5pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 31 books quote this market · margin removed 5.0%

  • Leeds United

    2.88 at BetRivers +5

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.9334.1% implieddifference −0.6pp

  • Draw

    3.75 at Betfred +7

    collected

    no-vig reference 3.7726.5% implieddifference −0.1pp

  • Manchester United

    2.45 at NordicBet

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.5439.3% implieddifference −1.5pp

Leeds United held from 2.79 to 2.79 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

2.003.054.1019 Sept, 18 UTC22 Sept, 17 UTC
Leeds UnitedDrawManchester United
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 15–31 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 31 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
BookLeeds UnitedDrawManchester UnitedCollected
888sport2.753.402.38
Betclic2.633.402.23
Betfred2.75Best price: 3.752.38
BetRiversBest price: 2.883.752.33
Betsson2.793.522.44
Betway2.703.502.30
Bovada2.703.602.35
BoyleSports2.753.402.38
Casumo2.883.752.33
DraftKings2.753.502.40
Fanatics2.753.502.40
FanDuel2.703.702.35
Grosvenor2.883.752.33
LeoVegas2.883.752.33
LeoVegas2.703.502.30
LiveScore Bet2.753.602.25
Marathonbet2.823.622.43
MyBookie2.713.502.35
NordicBet2.803.50Best price: 2.45
Paddy Power2.703.752.38
Pinnacle2.793.592.42
PMU2.703.452.18
Tipico2.803.602.35
Unibet2.883.752.33
Unibet2.883.752.33
Unibet2.753.502.38
Unibet2.603.402.20
Virgin Bet2.753.602.25
William Hill2.753.502.40
Winamax2.553.702.35
Winamax2.403.402.20

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

no-vig from William Hill alone · 14 books quote this market · margin removed 7.2%

  • Over 2.5

    1.68 at Bovada

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.7457.6% implieddifference −1.9pp

  • Under 2.5

    2.25 at Tipico

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.3642.4% implieddifference −2.0pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.62 to 1.62 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.541.972.4019 Sept, 18 UTC22 Sept, 17 UTC
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 4–14 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 14 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 2.5Under 2.5Collected
BetRivers1.642.23
Betsson1.672.23
BovadaBest price: 1.682.22
Casumo1.642.23
Grosvenor1.632.23
LeoVegas1.652.23
LeoVegas1.602.15
MyBookie1.622.15
NordicBet1.652.22
PMU1.552.10
Tipico1.62Best price: 2.25
Unibet1.652.23
Unibet1.642.23
William Hill1.622.20

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Both teams to score

no-vig from William Hill alone · 6 books quote this market · margin removed 8.8%

  • Both teams score

    1.53 at Betfred +3

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.6760.1% implieddifference −5.3pp

  • Not both teams score

    2.40 at Paddy Power

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.5039.9% implieddifference −1.7pp

Both teams score held from 1.53 to 1.53 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.431.962.5019 Sept, 18 UTC22 Sept, 17 UTC
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 4–6 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 6 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
BookBoth teams scoreNot both teams scoreCollected
BetfredBest price: 1.532.38
LeoVegas1.522.38
LiveScore Bet1.532.35
Paddy Power1.50Best price: 2.40
Virgin Bet1.532.35
William Hill1.532.30

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

  • Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
  • Rest: Leeds United 28d, Manchester United 28d since last match.
  • League scoring baseline: 2.85 goals/game.
  • Home advantage applied for Leeds United.
  • Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Manchester United

Match result+1.4pp differencecombined

2.45 at NordicBet

combined fair 2.3731 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 42%model 51% · market 39% (model vs market +11.5pp)

estimate 42% · price implies 41% · +3.5% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Manchester United at 42%; best collected price 2.45 at nordicbet implies 41% — a +1.4pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Leeds United vs Manchester United?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Manchester United the most likely outcome at 42%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 58%.

How does Clauseground predict Leeds United vs Manchester United?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.

Probabilities are labeled by source — market, model, or combined. How the model works →