Brighton and Hove Albion vs Crystal Palace — market analysis & odds

Sun 18 Oct, 13:00 UTC · American Express Stadium, Brighton

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
Brighton and Hove Albion
59% means we estimate about 59 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Brighton and Hove Albion 59% · Draw 22% · Crystal Palace 19%
2 · Understand the price
Crystal Palace
5.85 decimal odds
Betsson · US +485
collected 23:20 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 5.85 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+1.9 percentage points
Our estimate is 19%; the price implies 17%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 23:20 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Brighton and Hove Albionmodel 49% · market 62% (model vs market −13.1pp)

Drawmodel 27% · market 21% (model vs market +6.4pp)

Crystal Palacemodel 24% · market 17% (model vs market +6.7pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

23:20 UTC

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 31 books quote this market · margin removed 5.6%

Brighton and Hove Albion
1.57 at BetRivers +6
collected 23:20 UTC
no-vig reference 1.6261.9% implieddifference −1.8pp
Draw
4.60 at Tipico
collected 23:20 UTC
no-vig reference 4.8220.7% implieddifference −1.0pp
Crystal Palace
5.85 at Betsson +1
collected 23:20 UTC
no-vig reference 5.7617.4% implieddifference +0.3pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Brighton and Hove Albion	1.57BetRivers +6	23:20 UTC	1.6261.9% implied	−1.8pp
Draw	4.60Tipico	23:20 UTC	4.8220.7% implied	−1.0pp
Crystal Palace	5.85Betsson +1	23:20 UTC	5.7617.4% implied	+0.3pp

Brighton and Hove Albion held from 1.53 to 1.53 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

Brighton and Hove AlbionDrawCrystal Palace

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 15–31 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.

Every book’s current price — 31 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Brighton and Hove Albion	Draw	Crystal Palace	Collected
888sport	1.53	4.20	5.00	23:20 UTC
Betclic	1.47	4.15	5.00	23:20 UTC
Betfred	1.53	4.50	5.50	23:20 UTC
BetRivers	Best price: 1.57	4.50	5.40	23:20 UTC
Betsson	1.56	4.17	Best price: 5.85	23:20 UTC
Betway	1.50	4.50	5.00	23:20 UTC
Bovada	1.52	4.50	5.20	23:20 UTC
BoyleSports	1.53	4.33	5.00	23:20 UTC
Casumo	1.57	4.50	5.40	23:20 UTC
DraftKings	1.53	4.50	5.25	23:20 UTC
Fanatics	1.56	4.50	5.50	23:20 UTC
FanDuel	1.48	4.40	5.70	23:20 UTC
Grosvenor	1.57	4.50	5.40	23:20 UTC
LeoVegas	1.57	4.50	5.40	23:20 UTC
LeoVegas	1.52	4.20	5.00	23:20 UTC
LiveScore Bet	1.55	4.20	5.00	23:20 UTC
Marathonbet	1.55	4.55	5.60	23:20 UTC
MyBookie	1.52	4.30	5.20	23:20 UTC
NordicBet	1.55	4.15	5.85	23:20 UTC
Paddy Power	1.50	4.40	5.50	23:20 UTC
Pinnacle	1.53	4.57	5.46	23:20 UTC
PMU	1.51	4.10	4.80	23:20 UTC
Tipico	1.50	Best price: 4.60	5.70	23:20 UTC
Unibet	1.57	4.50	5.40	23:20 UTC
Unibet	1.57	4.50	5.40	23:20 UTC
Unibet	1.54	4.35	5.25	23:20 UTC
Unibet	1.46	4.10	4.90	23:20 UTC
Virgin Bet	1.55	4.20	5.00	23:20 UTC
William Hill	1.57	4.20	5.00	23:20 UTC
Winamax	1.50	4.50	5.00	23:20 UTC
Winamax	1.45	4.00	4.50	23:20 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

23:20 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 11 books quote this market · margin removed 8.0%

Over 2.5
1.57 at Betsson +1
collected 23:20 UTC
no-vig reference 1.6759.7% implieddifference −4.0pp
Under 2.5
2.43 at Betsson +1
collected 23:20 UTC
no-vig reference 2.4840.3% implieddifference −0.9pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 2.5	1.57Betsson +1	23:20 UTC	1.6759.7% implied	−4.0pp
Under 2.5	2.43Betsson +1	23:20 UTC	2.4840.3% implied	−0.9pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.55 to 1.55 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Over 2.5Under 2.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 1–11 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 11 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Collected
BetRivers	1.56	2.40	23:20 UTC
Betsson	Best price: 1.57	Best price: 2.43	23:20 UTC
Bovada	1.57	2.43	23:20 UTC
Casumo	1.56	2.40	23:20 UTC
Grosvenor	1.54	2.40	23:20 UTC
LeoVegas	1.56	2.40	23:20 UTC
NordicBet	1.55	2.42	23:20 UTC
PMU	1.47	2.28	23:20 UTC
Unibet	1.56	2.40	23:20 UTC
Unibet	1.56	2.40	23:20 UTC
William Hill	1.55	2.30	23:20 UTC

Total goals 3.5

23:20 UTC

3 books pricing this market · no reference book quoted every outcome, so no no-vig price is shown

Over 3.5
2.31 at MyBookie
collected 23:20 UTC
no-vig reference —difference —
Under 3.5
1.60 at Tipico
collected 23:20 UTC
no-vig reference —difference —

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 3.5	2.31MyBookie	23:20 UTC	—	—
Under 3.5	1.60Tipico	23:20 UTC	—	—

No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.

Over 3.5Under 3.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 2–4 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected.

Every book’s current price — 3 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 3.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 3.5	Under 3.5	Collected
LeoVegas	2.25	1.53	23:20 UTC
MyBookie	Best price: 2.31	1.55	23:20 UTC
Tipico	2.25	Best price: 1.60	23:20 UTC

Both teams to score

23:20 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 6 books quote this market · margin removed 8.0%

Both teams score
1.67 at Betfred
collected 23:20 UTC
no-vig reference 1.7357.9% implieddifference −2.0pp
Not both teams score
2.20 at William Hill
collected 23:20 UTC
no-vig reference 2.3842.1% implieddifference −3.3pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Both teams score	1.67Betfred	23:20 UTC	1.7357.9% implied	−2.0pp
Not both teams score	2.20William Hill	23:20 UTC	2.3842.1% implied	−3.3pp

Both teams score held from 1.60 to 1.60 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Both teams scoreNot both teams score

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 4–6 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 6 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Both teams score	Not both teams score	Collected
Betfred	Best price: 1.67	2.10	23:20 UTC
LeoVegas	1.61	2.15	23:20 UTC
LiveScore Bet	1.61	2.18	23:20 UTC
Paddy Power	1.65	2.10	23:20 UTC
Virgin Bet	1.61	2.18	23:20 UTC
William Hill	1.60	Best price: 2.20	23:20 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: Brighton and Hove Albion 29d, Crystal Palace 28d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 2.85 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for Brighton and Hove Albion.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Crystal Palace

Match result+1.9pp differencecombined

5.85 at Betsson

combined fair 5.2531 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 19%model 24% · market 17% (model vs market +6.7pp)

estimate 19% · price implies 17% · +11.3% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Crystal Palace at 19%; best collected price 5.85 at betsson implies 17% — a +1.9pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 23:10 UTC

Under 2.5

Totals+0.7pp differencecombined

2.43 at Betsson

combined fair 2.3911 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 42%model 47% · market 40% (model vs market +6.4pp)

estimate 42% · price implies 41% · +1.7% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Under 2.5 at 42%; best collected price 2.43 at betsson implies 41% — a +0.7pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 23:10 UTC

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Brighton and Hove Albion vs Crystal Palace?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Brighton and Hove Albion the most likely outcome at 59%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 41%.

How does Clauseground predict Brighton and Hove Albion vs Crystal Palace?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.