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Premier League

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa — market analysis & odds

· St James' Park, Newcastle

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

  1. 1 · Most likely result

    Newcastle United

    44% means we estimate about 44 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.

    Overall: Newcastle United 44% · Draw 26% · Aston Villa 30%

  2. 2 · Understand the price

    Aston Villa

    3.30 decimal odds

    Tipico de · US +230

    collected

    This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 3.30 units total if successful.

  3. 3 · Compare probability

    +0.1 percentage points

    Our estimate is 30%; the price implies 30%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.

    Potential value to investigate

Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Newcastle Unitedmodel 40% · market 46% (model vs market −5.8pp)
Drawmodel 27% · market 25% (model vs market +1.4pp)
Aston Villamodel 34% · market 29% (model vs market +4.4pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 31 books quote this market · margin removed 5.1%

  • Newcastle United

    2.15 at Betfred

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.2045.5% implieddifference −1.0pp

  • Draw

    3.85 at BetRivers +3

    collected

    no-vig reference 3.9725.2% implieddifference −0.8pp

  • Aston Villa

    3.30 at Tipico

    collected

    no-vig reference 3.4129.3% implieddifference −1.0pp

Newcastle United held from 2.09 to 2.09 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

1.722.984.2419 Sept, 18 UTC22 Sept, 17 UTC
Newcastle UnitedDrawAston Villa
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 15–31 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 31 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
BookNewcastle UnitedDrawAston VillaCollected
888sport2.053.603.10
Betclic1.953.483.12
BetfredBest price: 2.153.753.10
BetRivers2.12Best price: 3.853.25
Betsson2.113.713.24
Betway2.003.753.10
Bovada2.053.753.15
BoyleSports2.053.603.25
Casumo2.123.853.25
DraftKings2.053.703.20
Fanatics2.103.803.20
FanDuel2.103.803.10
Grosvenor2.083.753.15
LeoVegas2.083.753.15
LeoVegas2.023.603.15
LiveScore Bet2.053.653.10
Marathonbet2.113.783.28
MyBookie2.043.603.22
NordicBet2.103.703.25
Paddy Power2.103.803.10
Pinnacle2.093.783.25
PMU2.003.553.00
Tipico2.053.70Best price: 3.30
Unibet2.123.853.25
Unibet2.123.853.25
Unibet2.053.603.25
Unibet1.943.403.10
Virgin Bet2.053.653.10
William Hill2.103.603.20
Winamax2.003.703.15
Winamax1.923.402.90

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

no-vig from William Hill alone · 14 books quote this market · margin removed 8.1%

  • Over 2.5

    1.63 at Betsson

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.7058.9% implieddifference −2.4pp

  • Under 2.5

    2.34 at Bovada

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.4341.1% implieddifference −1.6pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.57 to 1.57 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.531.982.4319 Sept, 18 UTC22 Sept, 17 UTC
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 5–14 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 14 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 2.5Under 2.5Collected
BetRivers1.612.30
BetssonBest price: 1.632.31
Bovada1.62Best price: 2.34
Casumo1.612.30
Grosvenor1.602.30
LeoVegas1.612.30
LeoVegas1.572.20
MyBookie1.592.22
NordicBet1.622.30
PMU1.502.17
Tipico1.602.30
Unibet1.612.30
Unibet1.612.30
William Hill1.572.25

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Both teams to score

no-vig from William Hill alone · 6 books quote this market · margin removed 7.4%

  • Both teams score

    1.53 at Betfred +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.6460.9% implieddifference −4.5pp

  • Not both teams score

    2.40 at LeoVegas +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.5639.1% implieddifference −2.5pp

Both teams score held from 1.53 to 1.53 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.412.042.6719 Sept, 18 UTC22 Sept, 17 UTC
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 4–6 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 6 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
BookBoth teams scoreNot both teams scoreCollected
BetfredBest price: 1.532.38
LeoVegas1.50Best price: 2.40
LiveScore Bet1.522.38
Paddy Power1.502.40
Virgin Bet1.522.38
William Hill1.532.38

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

  • Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
  • Rest: Newcastle United 28d, Aston Villa 28d since last match.
  • League scoring baseline: 2.85 goals/game.
  • Home advantage applied for Newcastle United.
  • Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

No current price clears the publication threshold.

The market may be close to the estimate, the available data may be incomplete, or the price may have moved. Passing is a valid result.

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Newcastle United the most likely outcome at 44%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 56%.

How does Clauseground predict Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.

Probabilities are labeled by source — market, model, or combined. How the model works →