Sheffield United vs Lincoln City — market analysis & odds

Sat 10 Oct, 14:00 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
Sheffield United
49% means we estimate about 49 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Sheffield United 49% · Draw 26% · Lincoln City 24%
2 · Understand the price
Sheffield United
2.04 decimal odds
Codere it · US +104
collected 05:38 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 2.04 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+0.1 percentage points
Our estimate is 49%; the price implies 49%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 05:50 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Sheffield Unitedmodel 56% · market 47% (model vs market +9.2pp)

Drawmodel 25% · market 27% (model vs market −1.7pp)

Lincoln Citymodel 19% · market 26% (model vs market −7.5pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

05:38 UTC

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 32 books quote this market · margin removed 5.1%

Sheffield United
2.04 at Codere
collected 05:38 UTC
no-vig reference 2.1346.9% implieddifference −2.2pp
Draw
3.55 at Codere +1
collected 05:38 UTC
no-vig reference 3.7226.9% implieddifference −1.3pp
Lincoln City
3.85 at LeoVegas
collected 05:38 UTC
no-vig reference 3.8126.3% implieddifference +0.3pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Sheffield United	2.04Codere	05:38 UTC	2.1346.9% implied	−2.2pp
Draw	3.55Codere +1	05:38 UTC	3.7226.9% implied	−1.3pp
Lincoln City	3.85LeoVegas	05:38 UTC	3.8126.3% implied	+0.3pp

Sheffield United held from 2.03 to 2.03 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

Sheffield UnitedDrawLincoln City

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 30–32 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.

Every book’s current price — 32 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Sheffield United	Draw	Lincoln City	Collected
888sport	2.00	3.30	3.50	05:38 UTC
Betclic	1.86	3.20	3.25	05:38 UTC
Betfair Sportsbook	1.95	3.50	3.75	05:38 UTC
Betfred	2.00	3.50	3.75	05:38 UTC
BetRivers	1.93	3.35	3.55	05:38 UTC
Betsson	2.02	3.50	3.55	05:38 UTC
Bovada	2.00	3.50	3.55	05:38 UTC
BoyleSports	1.95	3.40	3.30	05:38 UTC
Codere	Best price: 2.04	Best price: 3.55	3.60	05:38 UTC
Coolbet	2.00	3.50	3.75	05:38 UTC
DraftKings	2.00	3.45	3.50	05:38 UTC
Fanatics	1.95	3.50	3.60	05:38 UTC
FanDuel	1.95	3.50	3.70	05:38 UTC
Grosvenor	1.94	3.40	3.65	05:38 UTC
LeoVegas	2.02	3.55	Best price: 3.85	05:38 UTC
LeoVegas	2.00	3.45	3.45	05:38 UTC
LiveScore Bet	1.93	3.35	3.55	05:38 UTC
Marathonbet	1.98	3.48	3.54	05:38 UTC
NordicBet	2.03	3.50	3.56	05:38 UTC
Paddy Power	1.91	3.40	3.60	05:38 UTC
Pinnacle	2.03	3.54	3.62	05:38 UTC
PMU	1.92	3.30	3.55	05:38 UTC
Sky Bet	1.95	3.50	3.60	05:38 UTC
Tipico	1.95	3.40	3.60	05:38 UTC
Unibet	2.00	3.40	3.50	05:38 UTC
Unibet	1.95	3.45	3.70	05:38 UTC
Unibet	1.95	3.45	3.70	05:38 UTC
Unibet	1.82	3.30	3.30	05:38 UTC
Virgin Bet	1.94	3.35	3.60	05:38 UTC
William Hill	2.00	3.30	3.50	05:38 UTC
Winamax	1.94	3.45	3.30	05:38 UTC
Winamax	1.84	3.20	3.10	05:38 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

05:38 UTC

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 15 books quote this market · margin removed 4.2%

Over 2.5
1.95 at Bovada
collected 05:38 UTC
no-vig reference 2.0050.0% implieddifference −1.3pp
Under 2.5
1.92 at Pinnacle
collected 05:38 UTC
no-vig reference 2.0050.0% implieddifference −2.1pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 2.5	1.95Bovada	05:38 UTC	2.0050.0% implied	−1.3pp
Under 2.5	1.92Pinnacle	05:38 UTC	2.0050.0% implied	−2.1pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.92 to 1.92 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

Over 2.5Under 2.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 15 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.

Every book’s current price — 15 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Collected
BetRivers	1.87	1.87	05:38 UTC
Betsson	1.90	1.90	05:38 UTC
Bovada	Best price: 1.95	1.87	05:38 UTC
Codere	1.83	1.83	05:38 UTC
Coolbet	1.89	1.89	05:38 UTC
Grosvenor	1.85	1.85	05:38 UTC
LeoVegas	1.85	1.85	05:38 UTC
LeoVegas	1.83	1.85	05:38 UTC
NordicBet	1.88	1.88	05:38 UTC
Pinnacle	1.92	Best price: 1.92	05:38 UTC
PMU	1.76	1.76	05:38 UTC
Tipico	1.83	1.85	05:38 UTC
Unibet	1.85	1.85	05:38 UTC
Unibet	1.85	1.85	05:38 UTC
William Hill	1.85	1.85	05:38 UTC

Both teams to score

05:38 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 5 books quote this market · margin removed 7.1%

Both teams score
1.75 at William Hill
collected 05:38 UTC
no-vig reference 1.8853.3% implieddifference −3.8pp
Not both teams score
2.02 at LeoVegas +2
collected 05:38 UTC
no-vig reference 2.1446.7% implieddifference −2.8pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Both teams score	1.75William Hill	05:38 UTC	1.8853.3% implied	−3.8pp
Not both teams score	2.02LeoVegas +2	05:38 UTC	2.1446.7% implied	−2.8pp

Both teams score held from 1.75 to 1.75 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Both teams scoreNot both teams score

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 5 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 5 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Both teams score	Not both teams score	Collected
Betfred	1.73	2.00	05:38 UTC
LeoVegas	1.70	Best price: 2.02	05:38 UTC
LiveScore Bet	1.71	2.02	05:38 UTC
Virgin Bet	1.71	2.02	05:38 UTC
William Hill	Best price: 1.75	2.00	05:38 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: Sheffield United 21d, Lincoln City 21d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 2.5 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for Sheffield United.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

No current price clears the publication threshold.

The market may be close to the estimate, the available data may be incomplete, or the price may have moved. Passing is a valid result.

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Sheffield United vs Lincoln City?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Sheffield United the most likely outcome at 49%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 51%.

How does Clauseground predict Sheffield United vs Lincoln City?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.