Fulham vs Hull City — market analysis & odds

Sat 17 Oct, 14:00 UTC · Craven Cottage, London

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
Fulham
56% means we estimate about 56 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Fulham 56% · Draw 24% · Hull City 20%
2 · Understand the price
Hull City
5.10 decimal odds
FanDuel · US +410
collected 08:20 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 5.10 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+0.8 percentage points
Our estimate is 20%; the price implies 20%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 08:29 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Fulhammodel 52% · market 57% (model vs market −4.7pp)

Drawmodel 27% · market 23% (model vs market +3.4pp)

Hull Citymodel 21% · market 20% (model vs market +1.4pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

08:20 UTC

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 30 books quote this market · margin removed 5.5%

Fulham
1.71 at BetRivers +3
collected 08:20 UTC
no-vig reference 1.7656.7% implieddifference −1.7pp
Draw
4.20 at Betfred +1
collected 08:20 UTC
no-vig reference 4.3123.2% implieddifference −0.6pp
Hull City
5.10 at FanDuel
collected 08:20 UTC
no-vig reference 4.9920.0% implieddifference +0.4pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Fulham	1.71BetRivers +3	08:20 UTC	1.7656.7% implied	−1.7pp
Draw	4.20Betfred +1	08:20 UTC	4.3123.2% implied	−0.6pp
Hull City	5.10FanDuel	08:20 UTC	4.9920.0% implied	+0.4pp

Hull City drifted from 4.66 to 4.73 (+1.5%) over 23h, measured on Pinnacle.

FulhamDrawHull City

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 15–30 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.

Every book’s current price — 30 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Fulham	Draw	Hull City	Collected
888sport	1.65	3.90	4.80	08:20 UTC
Betclic	1.56	3.85	4.60	08:20 UTC
Betfred	1.62	Best price: 4.20	5.00	08:20 UTC
BetRivers	Best price: 1.71	4.10	4.80	08:20 UTC
Betway	1.65	4.00	4.50	08:20 UTC
Bovada	1.64	4.00	4.80	08:20 UTC
BoyleSports	1.62	3.80	4.75	08:20 UTC
Casumo	1.71	4.10	4.80	08:20 UTC
DraftKings	1.65	4.00	4.70	08:20 UTC
Fanatics	1.67	4.00	5.00	08:20 UTC
FanDuel	1.59	4.10	Best price: 5.10	08:20 UTC
Grosvenor	1.68	4.00	4.70	08:20 UTC
LeoVegas	1.68	4.00	4.70	08:20 UTC
LeoVegas	1.60	4.00	4.60	08:20 UTC
LiveScore Bet	1.66	3.85	4.50	08:20 UTC
Marathonbet	1.67	4.10	5.05	08:20 UTC
MyBookie	1.61	4.00	4.80	08:20 UTC
Paddy Power	1.62	4.00	5.00	08:20 UTC
Pinnacle	1.67	4.08	4.73	08:20 UTC
PMU	1.62	3.70	4.35	08:20 UTC
Sky Bet	1.62	4.00	5.00	08:20 UTC
Tipico	1.62	4.20	4.90	08:20 UTC
Unibet	1.71	4.10	4.80	08:20 UTC
Unibet	1.71	4.10	4.80	08:20 UTC
Unibet	1.62	4.00	4.75	08:20 UTC
Unibet	1.55	3.80	4.50	08:20 UTC
Virgin Bet	1.66	3.85	4.50	08:20 UTC
William Hill	1.67	3.90	4.80	08:20 UTC
Winamax	1.60	4.10	4.60	08:20 UTC
Winamax	1.52	3.75	4.20	08:20 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

08:20 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 12 books quote this market · margin removed 7.5%

Over 2.5
1.68 at Bovada
collected 08:20 UTC
no-vig reference 1.8055.7% implieddifference −3.8pp
Under 2.5
2.25 at BetRivers +4
collected 08:20 UTC
no-vig reference 2.2644.3% implieddifference −0.1pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 2.5	1.68Bovada	08:20 UTC	1.8055.7% implied	−3.8pp
Under 2.5	2.25BetRivers +4	08:20 UTC	2.2644.3% implied	−0.1pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.67 to 1.67 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Over 2.5Under 2.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 4–12 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 12 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Collected
BetRivers	1.63	Best price: 2.25	08:20 UTC
Bovada	Best price: 1.68	2.22	08:20 UTC
Casumo	1.63	2.25	08:20 UTC
Grosvenor	1.62	2.23	08:20 UTC
LeoVegas	1.64	2.25	08:20 UTC
LeoVegas	1.62	2.12	08:20 UTC
MyBookie	1.64	2.13	08:20 UTC
PMU	1.54	2.12	08:20 UTC
Tipico	1.65	2.20	08:20 UTC
Unibet	1.64	2.25	08:20 UTC
Unibet	1.63	2.25	08:20 UTC
William Hill	1.67	2.10	08:20 UTC

Both teams to score

08:20 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 6 books quote this market · margin removed 8.7%

Both teams score
1.67 at Betfred +2
collected 08:20 UTC
no-vig reference 1.8155.1% implieddifference −4.8pp
Not both teams score
2.18 at LiveScore Bet +1
collected 08:20 UTC
no-vig reference 2.2344.9% implieddifference −1.0pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Both teams score	1.67Betfred +2	08:20 UTC	1.8155.1% implied	−4.8pp
Not both teams score	2.18LiveScore Bet +1	08:20 UTC	2.2344.9% implied	−1.0pp

Not both teams score drifted from 1.95 to 2.05 (+5.1%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Both teams scoreNot both teams score

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 4–6 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 6 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Both teams score	Not both teams score	Collected
Betfred	Best price: 1.67	2.10	08:20 UTC
LeoVegas	1.67	2.08	08:20 UTC
LiveScore Bet	1.61	Best price: 2.18	08:20 UTC
Paddy Power	1.65	2.10	08:20 UTC
Virgin Bet	1.61	2.18	08:20 UTC
William Hill	1.67	2.05	08:20 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: Fulham 27d, Hull City 28d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 2.85 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for Fulham.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Hull City

Match result+0.8pp differencecombined

5.10 at FanDuel

combined fair 4.9130 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 20%model 21% · market 20% (model vs market +1.4pp)

estimate 20% · price implies 20% · +3.9% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Hull City at 20%; best collected price 5.10 at fanduel implies 20% — a +0.8pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 08:29 UTC

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Fulham vs Hull City?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Fulham the most likely outcome at 56%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 44%.

How does Clauseground predict Fulham vs Hull City?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.