Skip to content
CLAUSEGROUND.
Menu
Major League Soccer

LA Galaxy vs Colorado Rapids — market analysis & odds

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

  1. 1 · Most likely result

    Colorado Rapids

    69% means we estimate about 69 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.

    Overall: LA Galaxy 14% · Draw 17% · Colorado Rapids 69%

  2. 2 · Understand the price

    Colorado Rapids

    3.33 decimal odds

    Betanysports · US +233

    collected · 80m old than this market's newest quote

    This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 3.33 units total if successful.

  3. 3 · Compare probability

    +38.6 percentage points

    Our estimate is 69%; the price implies 30%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.

    Potential value to investigate

Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

LA Galaxymodel 40% · market 6% (model vs market +34.0pp)
Drawmodel 25% · market 14% (model vs market +10.9pp)
Colorado Rapidsmodel 35% · market 80% (model vs market −45.0pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 43 books quote this market · margin removed 5.2%

  • LA Galaxy

    21.00 at Paddy Power

    collected

    no-vig reference 17.285.8% implieddifference +1.0pp

  • Draw

    8.00 at FanDuel

    collected

    no-vig reference 6.9714.3% implieddifference +1.8pp

  • Colorado Rapids

    3.33 at BetAnySports +2

    collected · 80m old than this market’s newest quote

    no-vig reference 1.2579.9% implieddifference +49.8pp

LA Galaxy drifted from 2.22 to 16.43 (+640.1%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

-0.6011.3523.3124 Sept, 05 UTC27 Sept, 04 UTC
LA GalaxyDrawColorado Rapids
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 33–43 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. 1 hour in the window had no collection at all and is drawn as a break in the line, never interpolated across. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 43 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
BookLA GalaxyDrawColorado RapidsCollected
888sport5.503.201.61
Betano18.006.501.15
BetAnySports2.133.76Best price: 3.33
Betclic13.755.901.11
Betfred2.053.603.10
BetMGM15.006.251.16
BetOnline2.133.763.33
BetRivers2.203.602.95
Betsson16.006.801.13
BetUS2.103.703.20
BetVictor17.006.001.18
Betway17.007.001.14
Bovada17.007.501.14
BoyleSports17.007.001.15
Caesars6.503.901.52
Casumo19.007.501.12
Coolbet18.007.001.14
Coral19.007.001.12
DraftKings5.503.801.62
Fanatics5.753.301.71
FanDuel18.00Best price: 8.001.12
Grosvenor18.007.501.09
GTbets2.213.743.21
Ladbrokes17.007.001.12
LeoVegas18.007.501.09
LeoVegas15.006.501.12
LiveScore Bet18.007.001.08
LowVig2.133.763.33
Marathonbet2.073.603.18
MyBookie16.006.751.14
NordicBet16.006.801.12
Paddy PowerBest price: 21.007.001.14
Pinnacle16.436.631.19
PMU18.007.001.05
Sky Bet18.007.001.14
Tipico6.003.501.55
Unibet19.007.501.12
Unibet19.007.501.12
Unibet1.983.503.00
Virgin Bet18.007.001.08
William Hill2.053.403.10
Winamax16.007.251.12
Winamax16.006.751.15

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

no-vig from William Hill alone · 20 books quote this market · margin removed 7.5%

  • Over 2.5

    1.71 at BetAnySports +3

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.8055.7% implieddifference −2.8pp

  • Under 2.5

    2.50 at Tipico

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.2644.3% implieddifference +4.3pp

Under 2.5 shortened from 2.30 to 2.10 (−8.7%) over 23h, measured on William Hill.

1.432.052.6724 Sept, 05 UTC27 Sept, 04 UTC
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3–20 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. 1 hour in the window had no collection at all and is drawn as a break in the line, never interpolated across. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 20 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 2.5Under 2.5Collected
BetAnySportsBest price: 1.712.20
BetMGM1.532.30
BetOnline1.712.13
BetRivers1.572.32
Betsson1.682.12
BetUS1.712.10
Bovada1.572.43
Casumo1.542.28
Coolbet1.682.15
Grosvenor1.512.28
GTbets1.682.10
LeoVegas1.502.30
LeoVegas1.422.35
LowVig1.712.13
NordicBet1.682.12
PMU1.412.33
Tipico1.45Best price: 2.50
Unibet1.482.40
Unibet1.482.40
William Hill1.672.10

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 3.5

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 16 books quote this market · margin removed 3.7%

  • Over 3.5

    2.35 at BetRivers

    collected · 2h old than this market’s newest quote

    no-vig reference 1.9750.8% implieddifference +8.2pp

  • Under 3.5

    2.00 at Tipico

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.0349.2% implieddifference −0.8pp

No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.

1.452.032.6124 Sept, 05 UTC27 Sept, 04 UTC
Over 3.5Under 3.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 5–15 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. 1 hour in the window had no collection at all and is drawn as a break in the line, never interpolated across. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 16 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 3.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 3.5Under 3.5Collected
BetMGM1.771.85
BetRiversBest price: 2.351.56
Betsson1.901.72
Bovada1.981.85
Casumo2.121.61
Coolbet1.991.76
Grosvenor2.121.57
LeoVegas2.071.55
LeoVegas1.921.73
MyBookie2.001.75
NordicBet1.981.65
Pinnacle1.901.96
PMU2.061.54
Tipico1.70Best price: 2.00
Unibet2.121.61
Unibet2.121.61

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Both teams to score

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 9 books quote this market · margin removed 3.7%

  • Both teams score

    1.62 at Pinnacle

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.6859.5% implieddifference −2.2pp

  • Not both teams score

    4.10 at MyBookie

    collected · 60m old than this market’s newest quote

    no-vig reference 2.4740.5% implieddifference +16.1pp

Not both teams score shortened from 2.64 to 2.38 (−9.8%) over 23h, measured on Pinnacle.

1.103.105.0924 Sept, 05 UTC27 Sept, 04 UTC
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 6–9 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. 1 hour in the window had no collection at all and is drawn as a break in the line, never interpolated across. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 9 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
BookBoth teams scoreNot both teams scoreCollected
Betfred1.572.25
Coral1.602.20
Ladbrokes1.572.25
LeoVegas1.502.35
LiveScore Bet1.612.06
MyBookie1.18Best price: 4.10
PinnacleBest price: 1.622.38
Virgin Bet1.612.06
William Hill1.572.25

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

  • Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
  • Rest: LA Galaxy 7d, Colorado Rapids 7d since last match.
  • League scoring baseline: 3 goals/game.
  • Home advantage applied for LA Galaxy.
  • Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Over 3

Totals+1.3pp differencereference market

2.15 at BetAnySports

no-vig 2.098 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

reference market estimate 48%model — · market 48%

estimate 48% · price implies 47% · +2.8% expected return if the estimate is right

No-vig reference market puts Over 3 at 48%; best collected price 2.15 at betanysports implies 47% — a +1.3pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win LA Galaxy vs Colorado Rapids?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Colorado Rapids the most likely outcome at 69%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 31%.

How does Clauseground predict LA Galaxy vs Colorado Rapids?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.

Probabilities are labeled by source — market, model, or combined. How the model works →