Real Salt Lake vs New England Revolution — market analysis & odds

Sun 27 Sept, 01:30 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
Real Salt Lake
46% means we estimate about 46 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Real Salt Lake 46% · Draw 25% · New England Revolution 30%
2 · Understand the price
Real Salt Lake
2.28 decimal odds
Leovegas se · US +128
collected 00:12 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 2.28 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+1.8 percentage points
Our estimate is 46%; the price implies 44%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 00:12 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Real Salt Lakemodel 50% · market 44% (model vs market +5.2pp)

Drawmodel 24% · market 25% (model vs market −1.1pp)

New England Revolutionmodel 27% · market 31% (model vs market −4.1pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

00:12 UTC

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 43 books quote this market · margin removed 3.4%

Real Salt Lake
2.28 at LeoVegas
collected 00:12 UTC
no-vig reference 2.2544.4% implieddifference +0.5pp
Draw
3.92 at BetOnline +1
collected 00:12 UTC
no-vig reference 4.0124.9% implieddifference −0.6pp
New England Revolution
3.20 at Betsson +1
collected 00:12 UTC
no-vig reference 3.2630.7% implieddifference −0.5pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Real Salt Lake	2.28LeoVegas	00:12 UTC	2.2544.4% implied	+0.5pp
Draw	3.92BetOnline +1	00:12 UTC	4.0124.9% implied	−0.6pp
New England Revolution	3.20Betsson +1	00:12 UTC	3.2630.7% implied	−0.5pp

New England Revolution drifted from 2.49 to 3.15 (+26.5%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

Real Salt LakeDrawNew England Revolution

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 37–43 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.

Every book’s current price — 43 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Real Salt Lake	Draw	New England Revolution	Collected
888sport	2.10	3.50	2.90	00:12 UTC
Betano	2.10	3.75	3.10	00:12 UTC
BetAnySports	2.15	3.80	3.05	00:12 UTC
Betclic	2.10	3.53	2.93	00:12 UTC
Betfred	2.15	3.60	2.88	00:12 UTC
BetMGM	2.15	3.60	3.00	00:12 UTC
BetOnline	2.18	Best price: 3.92	3.12	00:12 UTC
BetRivers	2.20	3.65	2.88	00:12 UTC
Betsson	2.12	3.60	Best price: 3.20	00:12 UTC
BetUS	2.15	3.80	3.05	00:12 UTC
BetVictor	2.10	3.75	3.10	00:12 UTC
Betway	2.10	3.80	3.00	00:12 UTC
Bovada	2.13	3.75	3.05	00:12 UTC
BoyleSports	2.05	3.60	2.75	00:12 UTC
Caesars	2.18	3.65	3.00	00:12 UTC
Casumo	2.20	3.65	2.88	00:12 UTC
Coolbet	2.17	3.85	2.95	00:12 UTC
Coral	2.10	3.40	2.87	00:12 UTC
DraftKings	2.10	3.65	3.00	00:12 UTC
Fanatics	2.10	3.80	3.10	00:12 UTC
FanDuel	2.10	3.70	3.10	00:12 UTC
Grosvenor	2.16	3.55	2.80	00:12 UTC
GTbets	2.24	3.79	3.00	00:12 UTC
Ladbrokes	2.10	3.40	2.87	00:12 UTC
LeoVegas	Best price: 2.28	3.80	2.95	00:12 UTC
LeoVegas	2.15	3.60	2.90	00:12 UTC
LiveScore Bet	2.18	3.60	2.85	00:12 UTC
LowVig	2.18	3.92	3.12	00:12 UTC
Marathonbet	2.11	3.70	3.02	00:12 UTC
MyBookie	2.20	3.65	3.02	00:12 UTC
NordicBet	2.12	3.60	3.20	00:12 UTC
Paddy Power	2.10	3.70	3.10	00:12 UTC
Pinnacle	2.18	3.88	3.15	00:12 UTC
PMU	2.15	3.50	2.80	00:12 UTC
Sky Bet	2.10	3.80	3.00	00:12 UTC
Tipico	2.15	3.80	2.80	00:12 UTC
Unibet	2.20	3.65	2.88	00:12 UTC
Unibet	2.20	3.65	2.88	00:12 UTC
Unibet	2.05	3.50	2.90	00:12 UTC
Virgin Bet	2.16	3.55	2.80	00:12 UTC
William Hill	2.10	3.50	2.90	00:12 UTC
Winamax	2.10	3.65	2.85	00:12 UTC
Winamax	2.05	3.55	2.80	00:12 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 3.5

00:12 UTC

11 books pricing this market · no reference book quoted every outcome, so no no-vig price is shown

Over 3.5
2.34 at GTbets
collected 00:12 UTC
no-vig reference —difference —
Under 3.5
1.60 at Tipico
collected 00:12 UTC
no-vig reference —difference —

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 3.5	2.34GTbets	00:12 UTC	—	—
Under 3.5	1.60Tipico	00:12 UTC	—	—

No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.

Over 3.5Under 3.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 9–12 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected.

Every book’s current price — 11 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 3.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 3.5	Under 3.5	Collected
BetMGM	2.30	1.53	00:12 UTC
BetRivers	2.33	1.56	00:12 UTC
Casumo	2.33	1.56	00:12 UTC
Grosvenor	2.30	1.56	00:12 UTC
GTbets	Best price: 2.34	1.58	00:12 UTC
LeoVegas	2.33	1.56	00:12 UTC
LeoVegas	2.25	1.55	00:12 UTC
PMU	2.18	1.47	00:12 UTC
Tipico	2.20	Best price: 1.60	00:12 UTC
Unibet	2.33	1.56	00:12 UTC
Unibet	2.33	1.56	00:12 UTC

Total goals 3

00:12 UTC

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 8 books quote this market · margin removed 2.9%

Over 3
1.90 at BetUS +1
collected 00:12 UTC
no-vig reference 1.9551.2% implieddifference −1.5pp
Under 3
1.99 at Pinnacle
collected 00:12 UTC
no-vig reference 2.0548.8% implieddifference −1.4pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 3	1.90BetUS +1	00:12 UTC	1.9551.2% implied	−1.5pp
Under 3	1.99Pinnacle	00:12 UTC	2.0548.8% implied	−1.4pp

Under 3 drifted from 1.91 to 1.99 (+4.2%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

Over 3Under 3

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 2–8 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.

Every book’s current price — 8 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 3. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 3	Under 3	Collected
BetAnySports	1.88	1.93	00:12 UTC
BetOnline	1.88	1.88	00:12 UTC
BetUS	Best price: 1.90	1.87	00:12 UTC
Bovada	1.87	1.95	00:12 UTC
Coolbet	1.87	1.90	00:12 UTC
LowVig	1.88	1.88	00:12 UTC
MyBookie	1.85	1.89	00:12 UTC
Pinnacle	1.90	Best price: 1.99	00:12 UTC

Both teams to score

00:12 UTC

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 9 books quote this market · margin removed 3.7%

Both teams score
1.51 at Pinnacle
collected 00:12 UTC
no-vig reference 1.5763.9% implieddifference −2.3pp
Not both teams score
2.67 at Pinnacle
collected 00:12 UTC
no-vig reference 2.7736.1% implieddifference −1.3pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Both teams score	1.51Pinnacle	00:12 UTC	1.5763.9% implied	−2.3pp
Not both teams score	2.67Pinnacle	00:12 UTC	2.7736.1% implied	−1.3pp

Not both teams score drifted from 2.62 to 2.67 (+1.9%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

Both teams scoreNot both teams score

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 8–9 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.

Every book’s current price — 9 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Both teams score	Not both teams score	Collected
Betfred	1.50	2.50	00:12 UTC
Coral	1.48	2.50	00:12 UTC
Ladbrokes	1.48	2.50	00:12 UTC
LeoVegas	1.44	2.45	00:12 UTC
LiveScore Bet	1.46	2.55	00:12 UTC
MyBookie	1.49	2.52	00:12 UTC
Pinnacle	Best price: 1.51	Best price: 2.67	00:12 UTC
Virgin Bet	1.46	2.55	00:12 UTC
William Hill	1.50	2.45	00:12 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: Real Salt Lake 3d, New England Revolution 7d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 3 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for Real Salt Lake.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Real Salt Lake

Match result+1.4pp differencecombined

2.28 at LeoVegas

combined fair 2.2143 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 45%model 50% · market 44% (model vs market +5.8pp)

estimate 45% · price implies 44% · +3.1% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Real Salt Lake at 45%; best collected price 2.28 at leovegas_se implies 44% — a +1.4pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 00:10 UTC

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Real Salt Lake vs New England Revolution?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Real Salt Lake the most likely outcome at 46%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 54%.

How does Clauseground predict Real Salt Lake vs New England Revolution?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.