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Major League Soccer

Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC — market analysis & odds

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

  1. 1 · Most likely result

    Philadelphia Union

    78% means we estimate about 78 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.

    Overall: Philadelphia Union 78% · Draw 12% · Orlando City SC 10%

  2. 2 · Understand the price

    Philadelphia Union

    1.65 decimal odds

    Betanysports · US −154

    collected · 2h old than this market's newest quote

    This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 1.65 units total if successful.

  3. 3 · Compare probability

    +17.1 percentage points

    Our estimate is 78%; the price implies 61%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.

    Potential value to investigate

Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Philadelphia Unionmodel 44% · market 89% (model vs market −44.7pp)
Drawmodel 24% · market 8% (model vs market +15.7pp)
Orlando City SCmodel 32% · market 3% (model vs market +29.0pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 43 books quote this market · margin removed 22.0%

  • Philadelphia Union

    1.65 at BetAnySports +2

    collected · 2h old than this market’s newest quote

    no-vig reference 1.3275.9% implieddifference +15.3pp

  • Draw

    23.00 at Betsson +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 14.706.8% implieddifference +2.5pp

  • Orlando City SC

    24.00 at Caesars

    collected · 60m old than this market’s newest quote

    no-vig reference 5.7717.3% implieddifference +13.2pp

Draw drifted from 5.30 to 12.05 (+127.4%) over 23h, measured on Pinnacle.

-1.7412.5126.7624 Sept, 02 UTC27 Sept, 01 UTC
Philadelphia UnionDrawOrlando City SC
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 2–43 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 43 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
BookPhiladelphia UnionDrawOrlando City SCCollected
888sport1.0611.0023.00
Betano1.0111.5022.00
BetAnySportsBest price: 1.654.704.60
Betclic1.047.5021.00
Betfred1.574.504.33
BetMGM1.0710.0021.00
BetOnline1.654.704.60
BetRivers1.534.604.90
Betsson1.04Best price: 23.0021.00
BetUS1.614.654.60
BetVictor1.0111.5023.00
Betway1.0123.0023.00
Bovada1.0113.009.00
BoyleSports1.0712.0023.00
Caesars1.0119.00Best price: 24.00
Casumo1.0112.0023.00
Coolbet1.0620.0022.00
Coral1.0610.001.02
DraftKings1.0711.008.50
Fanatics1.0111.509.50
FanDuel1.0511.0021.00
Grosvenor1.0311.5023.00
GTbets1.624.774.57
Ladbrokes1.0610.001.02
LeoVegas1.0511.0023.00
LeoVegas1.0211.5023.00
LiveScore Bet1.0211.5023.00
LowVig1.654.704.60
Marathonbet1.584.504.55
MyBookie1.0610.0019.50
NordicBet1.0419.0019.50
Paddy Power1.0212.009.00
Pinnacle1.0812.054.73
PMU1.474.004.20
Sky Bet1.0712.0023.00
Tipico1.0113.0022.00
Unibet1.514.404.10
Unibet1.0512.0023.00
Unibet1.0112.0023.00
Virgin Bet1.0211.5023.00
William Hill1.604.004.40
Winamax1.0112.0023.00
Winamax1.0111.0023.00

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 4.5

14 books pricing this market · no reference book quoted every outcome, so no no-vig price is shown

  • Over 4.5

    1.74 at Coolbet

    collected · 60m old than this market’s newest quote

    no-vig reference —difference —

  • Under 4.5

    2.70 at Casumo +3

    collected

    no-vig reference —difference —

No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.

1.222.042.8626 Sept, 23 UTC27 Sept, 01 UTC
Over 4.5Under 4.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 6–14 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected.
Every book’s current price — 14 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 4.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 4.5Under 4.5Collected
BetMGM1.502.30
Betsson1.701.95
Bovada1.622.32
Casumo1.38Best price: 2.70
CoolbetBest price: 1.742.02
Grosvenor1.352.70
LeoVegas1.552.20
LeoVegas1.322.65
MyBookie1.552.35
NordicBet1.701.95
PMU1.322.65
Tipico1.552.30
Unibet1.382.70
Unibet1.382.70

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 3.5

13 books pricing this market · no reference book quoted every outcome, so no no-vig price is shown

  • Over 3.5

    1.80 at MyBookie

    collected

    no-vig reference —difference —

  • Under 3.5

    2.40 at BetMGM

    collected

    no-vig reference —difference —

No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.

1.371.942.5124 Sept, 02 UTC27 Sept, 01 UTC
Over 3.5Under 3.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 1–17 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. 1 hour in the window had no collection at all and is drawn as a break in the line, never interpolated across.
Every book’s current price — 13 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 3.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 3.5Under 3.5Collected
BetMGM1.48Best price: 2.40
BetRivers1.772.00
Betsson1.751.85
Casumo1.772.02
Grosvenor1.752.00
GTbets1.742.10
LeoVegas1.672.02
LeoVegas1.661.89
MyBookieBest price: 1.801.95
PMU1.661.88
Tipico1.622.15
Unibet1.731.94
Unibet1.731.94

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Both teams to score

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 9 books quote this market · margin removed 4.0%

  • Both teams score

    2.50 at LiveScore Bet +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.4370.2% implieddifference +30.2pp

  • Not both teams score

    3.25 at Betfred

    collected · 2h old than this market’s newest quote

    no-vig reference 3.3529.8% implieddifference −0.9pp

Not both teams score drifted from 2.95 to 3.22 (+9.2%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

1.132.383.6424 Sept, 02 UTC27 Sept, 01 UTC
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 6–9 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 9 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
BookBoth teams scoreNot both teams scoreCollected
Betfred1.33Best price: 3.25
Coral2.451.50
Ladbrokes2.401.50
LeoVegas2.301.52
LiveScore BetBest price: 2.501.40
MyBookie1.352.95
Pinnacle1.373.22
Virgin Bet2.501.40
William Hill1.353.00

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

  • Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
  • Rest: Philadelphia Union 7d, Orlando City SC 7d since last match.
  • League scoring baseline: 3 goals/game.
  • Home advantage applied for Philadelphia Union.
  • Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Orlando City SC

Match result+4.5pp differencecombined

5.20 at LeoVegas

combined fair 4.2242 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 24%model 32% · market 21% (model vs market +11.3pp)

estimate 24% · price implies 19% · +23.3% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Orlando City SC at 24%; best collected price 5.20 at leovegas_se implies 19% — a +4.5pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Draw

Match result+0.6pp differencecombined

4.80 at LeoVegas

combined fair 4.6742 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 21%model 24% · market 21% (model vs market +3.0pp)

estimate 21% · price implies 21% · +2.7% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Draw at 21%; best collected price 4.80 at leovegas_se implies 21% — a +0.6pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Philadelphia Union the most likely outcome at 78%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 22%.

How does Clauseground predict Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.

Probabilities are labeled by source — market, model, or combined. How the model works →