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Major League Soccer

New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City SC — market analysis & odds

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

  1. 1 · Most likely result

    St. Louis City SC

    45% means we estimate about 45 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.

    Overall: New York Red Bulls 32% · Draw 23% · St. Louis City SC 45%

  2. 2 · Understand the price

    New York Red Bulls

    3.80 decimal odds

    Fanatics · US +280

    collected

    This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 3.80 units total if successful.

  3. 3 · Compare probability

    +5.3 percentage points

    Our estimate is 32%; the price implies 26%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.

    Potential value to investigate

Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

New York Red Bullsmodel 44% · market 27% (model vs market +17.1pp)
Drawmodel 24% · market 22% (model vs market +1.9pp)
St. Louis City SCmodel 31% · market 50% (model vs market −19.0pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

no-vig from William Hill alone · 21 books quote this market · margin removed 9.8%

  • New York Red Bulls

    3.80 at Fanatics

    collected

    no-vig reference 3.7326.8% implieddifference +0.5pp

  • Draw

    4.30 at FanDuel

    collected

    no-vig reference 4.1724.0% implieddifference +0.7pp

  • St. Louis City SC

    1.91 at Fanatics

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.0349.2% implieddifference −3.1pp

New York Red Bulls shortened from 3.50 to 3.40 (−2.9%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.603.134.6624 Sept, 20 UTC27 Sept, 19 UTC
New York Red BullsDrawSt. Louis City SC
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 18–43 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 21 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
BookNew York Red BullsDrawSt. Louis City SCCollected
888sport3.403.801.85
Betclic3.353.901.77
Betfair Sportsbook3.504.201.85
Betfred3.404.001.83
BetMGM3.503.901.87
Betway3.404.001.85
Coolbet3.604.201.85
Coral3.403.751.83
FanaticsBest price: 3.804.00Best price: 1.91
FanDuel3.50Best price: 4.301.83
Ladbrokes3.403.751.83
LeoVegas3.304.001.83
Marathonbet3.524.001.85
MyBookie3.464.001.84
Paddy Power3.504.201.85
Sky Bet3.303.901.80
Tipico3.503.801.85
Unibet3.303.901.72
William Hill3.403.801.85
Winamax3.254.001.78
Winamax3.203.901.76

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 3.5

5 books pricing this market · no reference book quoted every outcome, so no no-vig price is shown

  • Over 3.5

    1.98 at Coolbet

    collected

    no-vig reference —difference —

  • Under 3.5

    1.80 at Coolbet

    collected

    no-vig reference —difference —

No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.

1.711.922.1424 Sept, 20 UTC27 Sept, 19 UTC
Over 3.5Under 3.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 4–17 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected.
Every book’s current price — 5 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 3.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 3.5Under 3.5Collected
BetMGM1.951.74
CoolbetBest price: 1.98Best price: 1.80
LeoVegas1.951.75
MyBookie1.971.75
Tipico1.971.72

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Both teams to score

no-vig from William Hill alone · 6 books quote this market · margin removed 7.8%

  • Both teams score

    1.41 at MyBookie

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.5166.3% implieddifference −4.7pp

  • Not both teams score

    2.75 at Betfred +3

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.9633.7% implieddifference −2.6pp

Both teams score held from 1.40 to 1.40 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.212.203.1924 Sept, 20 UTC27 Sept, 19 UTC
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 4–9 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 6 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
BookBoth teams scoreNot both teams scoreCollected
Betfred1.40Best price: 2.75
Coral1.402.75
Ladbrokes1.402.75
LeoVegas1.362.65
MyBookieBest price: 1.412.69
William Hill1.402.75

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

  • Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
  • Rest: New York Red Bulls 12d, St. Louis City SC 11d since last match.
  • League scoring baseline: 3 goals/game.
  • Home advantage applied for New York Red Bulls.
  • Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

New York Red Bulls

Match result+5.3pp differencecombined

3.80 at Fanatics

combined fair 3.1621 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 32%model 44% · market 27% (model vs market +17.1pp)

estimate 32% · price implies 26% · +20.1% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts New York Red Bulls at 32%; best collected price 3.80 at fanatics implies 26% — a +5.3pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City SC?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes St. Louis City SC the most likely outcome at 45%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 55%.

How does Clauseground predict New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City SC?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.

Probabilities are labeled by source — market, model, or combined. How the model works →