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Bundesliga

SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 — market analysis & odds

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

  1. 1 · Most likely result

    SC Freiburg

    55% means we estimate about 55 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.

    Overall: SC Freiburg 55% · Draw 25% · FC Schalke 04 21%

  2. 2 · Understand the price

    FC Schalke 04

    5.60 decimal odds

    Betus · US +460

    collected

    This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 5.60 units total if successful.

  3. 3 · Compare probability

    +2.7 percentage points

    Our estimate is 21%; the price implies 18%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.

    Potential value to investigate

Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

SC Freiburgmodel 43% · market 59% (model vs market −16.3pp)
Drawmodel 26% · market 24% (model vs market +1.9pp)
FC Schalke 04model 31% · market 17% (model vs market +14.4pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 37 books quote this market · margin removed 5.5%

  • SC Freiburg

    1.65 at Betsson

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.7058.8% implieddifference −1.8pp

  • Draw

    4.40 at Coolbet

    collected

    no-vig reference 4.1324.2% implieddifference +1.5pp

  • FC Schalke 04

    5.60 at BetUS +3

    collected

    no-vig reference 5.9116.9% implieddifference −0.9pp

SC Freiburg held from 1.61 to 1.61 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

1.163.646.1221 Sept, 23 UTC24 Sept, 22 UTC
SC FreiburgDrawFC Schalke 04
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 36–38 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 37 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
BookSC FreiburgDrawFC Schalke 04Collected
888sport1.613.755.00
Betclic1.553.854.60
Betfair Sportsbook1.554.105.50
Betfred1.624.205.00
BetMGM1.624.105.00
BetRivers1.604.105.00
BetssonBest price: 1.654.054.90
BetUS1.613.90Best price: 5.60
Betway1.603.805.00
Bovada1.613.905.60
BoyleSports1.553.805.00
Codere1.644.205.00
Coolbet1.64Best price: 4.405.25
Coral1.614.205.00
DraftKings1.593.754.80
Everygame1.573.755.25
FanDuel1.544.105.60
Grosvenor1.614.205.10
Ladbrokes1.614.005.00
LeoVegas1.574.004.90
LiveScore Bet1.573.904.75
Marathonbet1.644.005.45
NordicBet1.624.054.90
Paddy Power1.534.005.50
Pinnacle1.613.915.60
PMU1.574.004.90
Sky Bet1.554.005.50
Suprabets1.573.745.30
Tipico1.574.205.50
Unibet1.644.355.30
Unibet1.644.355.30
Unibet1.604.004.75
Unibet1.523.804.60
Virgin Bet1.584.004.90
William Hill1.623.755.00
Winamax1.584.104.50
Winamax1.564.004.40

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

no-vig from William Hill alone · 12 books quote this market · margin removed 6.0%

  • Over 2.5

    1.63 at Betsson

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.7059.0% implieddifference −2.4pp

  • Under 2.5

    2.40 at LeoVegas +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.4441.0% implieddifference −0.6pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.60 to 1.60 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.502.002.5021 Sept, 23 UTC24 Sept, 22 UTC
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 12–14 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 12 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 2.5Under 2.5Collected
BetMGM1.572.25
BetRivers1.562.38
BetssonBest price: 1.632.31
Codere1.562.23
Grosvenor1.562.38
LeoVegas1.57Best price: 2.40
NordicBet1.602.28
PMU1.482.23
Tipico1.572.35
Unibet1.572.40
Unibet1.562.38
William Hill1.602.30

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 3

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 4 books quote this market · margin removed 4.1%

  • Over 3

    2.01 at Pinnacle

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.0947.8% implieddifference −2.0pp

  • Under 3

    1.84 at BetUS +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.9252.2% implieddifference −2.1pp

Over 3 held from 2.01 to 2.01 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

1.811.922.0321 Sept, 23 UTC24 Sept, 22 UTC
Over 3Under 3
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 4 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 4 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 3. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 3Under 3Collected
BetUS1.99Best price: 1.84
Bovada2.001.83
Coolbet2.001.82
PinnacleBest price: 2.011.84

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Both teams to score

no-vig from William Hill alone · 7 books quote this market · margin removed 5.3%

  • Both teams score

    1.67 at William Hill

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.7656.8% implieddifference −3.0pp

  • Not both teams score

    2.25 at Paddy Power

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.3243.2% implieddifference −1.3pp

Both teams score held from 1.67 to 1.67 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.601.962.3221 Sept, 23 UTC24 Sept, 22 UTC
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 7–8 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 7 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
BookBoth teams scoreNot both teams scoreCollected
Betfred1.622.20
Coral1.652.15
Ladbrokes1.612.15
LiveScore Bet1.602.23
Paddy Power1.57Best price: 2.25
Virgin Bet1.602.23
William HillBest price: 1.672.20

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

  • Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
  • Rest: SC Freiburg 22d, FC Schalke 04 21d since last match.
  • League scoring baseline: 3.1 goals/game.
  • Home advantage applied for SC Freiburg.
  • Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

FC Schalke 04

Match result+2.7pp differencecombined

5.60 at BetUS

combined fair 4.8637 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 21%model 31% · market 17% (model vs market +14.3pp)

estimate 21% · price implies 18% · +15.2% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts FC Schalke 04 at 21%; best collected price 5.60 at betus implies 18% — a +2.7pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Draw

Match result+2.0pp differencecombined

4.40 at Coolbet

combined fair 4.0437 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 25%model 26% · market 24% (model vs market +1.9pp)

estimate 25% · price implies 23% · +8.8% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Draw at 25%; best collected price 4.40 at coolbet implies 23% — a +2.0pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes SC Freiburg the most likely outcome at 55%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 45%.

How does Clauseground predict SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.

Probabilities are labeled by source — market, model, or combined. How the model works →