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Bundesliga

Union Berlin vs Elversberg — market analysis & odds

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

  1. 1 · Most likely result

    Union Berlin

    43% means we estimate about 43 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.

    Overall: Union Berlin 43% · Draw 25% · Elversberg 32%

  2. 2 · Understand the price

    Union Berlin

    2.35 decimal odds

    Unibet nl · US +135

    collected

    This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 2.35 units total if successful.

  3. 3 · Compare probability

    +0.6 percentage points

    Our estimate is 43%; the price implies 43%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.

    Potential value to investigate

Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Union Berlinmodel 43% · market 43% (model vs market −0.5pp)
Drawmodel 26% · market 24% (model vs market +1.6pp)
Elversbergmodel 31% · market 32% (model vs market −1.1pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 42 books quote this market · margin removed 5.0%

  • Union Berlin

    2.35 at Unibet +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.3143.3% implieddifference +0.7pp

  • Draw

    3.92 at Pinnacle

    collected

    no-vig reference 4.1224.3% implieddifference −1.2pp

  • Elversberg

    3.00 at Codere +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 3.0932.4% implieddifference −0.9pp

Union Berlin held from 2.20 to 2.20 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

2.163.134.1125 Sept, 10 UTC28 Sept, 09 UTC
Union BerlinDrawElversberg
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 37–42 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 42 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
BookUnion BerlinDrawElversbergCollected
888sport2.203.602.88
Betano2.153.602.80
Betclic2.123.552.88
Betfair Sportsbook2.203.802.80
Betfred2.253.752.88
BetMGM2.253.752.88
BetRivers2.253.702.75
Betsson2.253.602.90
BetUS2.203.902.93
BetVictor2.153.602.80
Betway2.153.802.75
Bovada2.203.902.93
BoyleSports2.053.752.70
Caesars2.213.652.91
Codere2.233.70Best price: 3.00
Coolbet2.303.852.95
Coral2.253.752.87
DraftKings2.153.602.75
Everygame2.153.752.85
Fanatics2.253.802.90
FanDuel2.203.802.85
Grosvenor2.283.802.80
Ladbrokes2.253.752.87
LeoVegas2.233.652.75
LeoVegas2.183.552.88
LiveScore Bet2.203.602.70
Marathonbet2.243.822.99
NordicBet2.253.602.90
Paddy Power2.203.752.80
Pinnacle2.20Best price: 3.922.94
PMU2.253.652.75
Sky Bet2.203.752.80
Suprabets2.133.752.83
Tipico2.203.703.00
UnibetBest price: 2.353.902.88
Unibet2.353.902.88
Unibet2.203.602.90
Unibet2.053.502.85
Virgin Bet2.253.652.75
William Hill2.203.602.88
Winamax2.153.652.80
Winamax2.103.602.75

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

no-vig from William Hill alone · 12 books quote this market · margin removed 7.2%

  • Over 2.5

    1.58 at Betsson

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.6859.4% implieddifference −3.9pp

  • Under 2.5

    2.41 at Betsson

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.4640.6% implieddifference −0.9pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.57 to 1.57 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.482.002.5125 Sept, 10 UTC28 Sept, 09 UTC
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 12 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 12 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 2.5Under 2.5Collected
BetMGM1.542.30
BetRivers1.562.38
BetssonBest price: 1.58Best price: 2.41
Codere1.542.27
Grosvenor1.562.38
LeoVegas1.562.40
LeoVegas1.532.30
NordicBet1.552.38
PMU1.482.25
Unibet1.562.38
Unibet1.562.40
William Hill1.572.30

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 3

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 4 books quote this market · margin removed 4.2%

  • Over 3

    1.96 at Pinnacle

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.0449.0% implieddifference −2.1pp

  • Under 3

    1.89 at Coolbet

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.9651.0% implieddifference −1.9pp

Over 3 held from 1.96 to 1.96 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

1.881.921.9725 Sept, 10 UTC28 Sept, 09 UTC
Over 3Under 3
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 4 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 4 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 3. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 3Under 3Collected
BetUS1.941.88
Bovada1.951.87
Coolbet1.92Best price: 1.89
PinnacleBest price: 1.961.88

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Both teams to score

no-vig from William Hill alone · 8 books quote this market · margin removed 6.7%

  • Both teams score

    1.50 at Betfred +3

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.6062.5% implieddifference −4.2pp

  • Not both teams score

    2.55 at Paddy Power

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.6737.5% implieddifference −1.7pp

Both teams score held from 1.50 to 1.50 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.372.022.6825 Sept, 10 UTC28 Sept, 09 UTC
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 8 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 8 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
BookBoth teams scoreNot both teams scoreCollected
BetfredBest price: 1.502.50
Coral1.502.45
Ladbrokes1.502.40
LeoVegas1.472.50
LiveScore Bet1.482.50
Paddy Power1.45Best price: 2.55
Virgin Bet1.482.50
William Hill1.502.50

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

  • Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
  • Rest: Union Berlin 22d, Elversberg 20d since last match.
  • League scoring baseline: 3.1 goals/game.
  • Home advantage applied for Union Berlin.
  • Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Union Berlin

Match result+0.6pp differencecombined

2.35 at Unibet

combined fair 2.3242 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 43%model 43% · market 43% (model vs market −0.5pp)

estimate 43% · price implies 43% · +1.5% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Union Berlin at 43%; best collected price 2.35 at unibet_nl implies 43% — a +0.6pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Union Berlin vs Elversberg?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Union Berlin the most likely outcome at 43%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 57%.

How does Clauseground predict Union Berlin vs Elversberg?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.

Probabilities are labeled by source — market, model, or combined. How the model works →