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Bundesliga

Augsburg vs Bayern Munich — market analysis & odds

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

  1. 1 · Most likely result

    Bayern Munich

    74% means we estimate about 74 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.

    Overall: Augsburg 12% · Draw 14% · Bayern Munich 74%

  2. 2 · Understand the price

    Augsburg

    12.00 decimal odds

    Coolbet · US +1100

    collected

    This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 12.00 units total if successful.

  3. 3 · Compare probability

    +4.0 percentage points

    Our estimate is 12%; the price implies 8%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.

    Potential value to investigate

Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Augsburgmodel 16% · market 11% (model vs market +5.0pp)
Drawmodel 20% · market 12% (model vs market +8.0pp)
Bayern Munichmodel 64% · market 77% (model vs market −13.0pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 38 books quote this market · margin removed 6.0%

  • Augsburg

    12.00 at Coolbet

    collected

    no-vig reference 8.9911.1% implieddifference +2.8pp

  • Draw

    8.25 at BetUS +2

    collected

    no-vig reference 8.6511.6% implieddifference −0.6pp

  • Bayern Munich

    1.25 at BetMGM +2

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.2977.3% implieddifference −2.7pp

Augsburg held from 8.48 to 8.48 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

-0.046.6313.2923 Sept, 12 UTC26 Sept, 11 UTC
AugsburgDrawBayern Munich
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 36–38 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 38 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
BookAugsburgDrawBayern MunichCollected
888sport9.507.001.22
Betclic8.757.001.18
Betfair Sportsbook11.007.501.17
Betfred11.007.501.20
BetMGM8.257.75Best price: 1.25
BetRivers10.007.001.21
Betsson11.506.201.23
BetUS8.75Best price: 8.251.22
Betway8.008.001.20
Bovada8.758.251.22
BoyleSports7.507.001.20
Caesars9.007.251.23
Codere9.807.801.22
CoolbetBest price: 12.008.251.21
Coral8.007.501.25
DraftKings7.507.001.19
Everygame8.007.501.20
FanDuel10.007.501.17
Grosvenor10.507.501.22
Ladbrokes8.007.501.25
LeoVegas9.506.751.20
LiveScore Bet9.006.501.19
Marathonbet10.507.801.22
NordicBet11.506.101.23
Paddy Power10.007.501.17
Pinnacle8.488.161.22
PMU9.506.751.21
Sky Bet10.507.501.20
Suprabets7.907.701.20
Tipico10.008.201.20
Unibet11.007.501.24
Unibet11.007.501.24
Unibet9.007.001.20
Unibet7.406.701.18
Virgin Bet9.506.751.21
William Hill9.507.001.22
Winamax8.007.501.19
Winamax7.757.251.18

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 4.5

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 13 books quote this market · margin removed 4.8%

  • Over 4.5

    1.98 at BetUS +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.0648.4% implieddifference −2.1pp

  • Under 4.5

    1.88 at LeoVegas +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.9451.6% implieddifference −1.6pp

Over 4.5 held from 1.97 to 1.97 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

1.871.931.9923 Sept, 12 UTC26 Sept, 11 UTC
Over 4.5Under 4.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 13–14 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 13 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 4.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 4.5Under 4.5Collected
BetMGM1.911.80
BetRivers1.881.87
BetUSBest price: 1.981.85
Bovada1.981.85
Codere1.881.79
Coolbet1.961.85
Grosvenor1.881.87
LeoVegas1.91Best price: 1.88
Pinnacle1.971.85
PMU1.791.77
Tipico1.901.83
Unibet1.911.88
Unibet1.881.87

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

no-vig from William Hill alone · 3 books quote this market · margin removed 5.1%

  • Over 2.5

    1.18 at Betsson

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.2182.7% implieddifference −2.0pp

  • Under 2.5

    5.50 at William Hill

    collected

    no-vig reference 5.7817.3% implieddifference −0.9pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.15 to 1.15 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

0.663.346.0223 Sept, 12 UTC26 Sept, 11 UTC
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 3 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 2.5Under 2.5Collected
BetssonBest price: 1.185.01
NordicBet1.174.90
William Hill1.15Best price: 5.50

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Both teams to score

no-vig from William Hill alone · 7 books quote this market · margin removed 5.9%

  • Both teams score

    1.40 at Betfred +3

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.4867.4% implieddifference −4.0pp

  • Not both teams score

    2.90 at LiveScore Bet +2

    collected

    no-vig reference 3.0732.6% implieddifference −1.9pp

Both teams score held from 1.40 to 1.40 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.222.153.0823 Sept, 12 UTC26 Sept, 11 UTC
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 7–8 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 7 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
BookBoth teams scoreNot both teams scoreCollected
BetfredBest price: 1.402.75
Coral1.402.70
Ladbrokes1.402.70
LiveScore Bet1.37Best price: 2.90
Paddy Power1.362.88
Virgin Bet1.372.90
William Hill1.402.90

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

  • Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
  • Rest: Augsburg 21d, Bayern Munich 22d since last match.
  • League scoring baseline: 3.1 goals/game.
  • Home advantage applied for Augsburg.
  • Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Under 4.5

Totals+2.4pp differencecombined

1.88 at LeoVegas

combined fair 1.8013 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 56%model 68% · market 52% (model vs market +16.2pp)

estimate 56% · price implies 53% · +4.6% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Under 4.5 at 56%; best collected price 1.88 at leovegas_se implies 53% — a +2.4pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Augsburg

Match result+4.0pp differencecombined

12.00 at Coolbet

combined fair 8.0838 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 12%model 16% · market 11% (model vs market +5.0pp)

estimate 12% · price implies 8% · +48.6% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Augsburg at 12%; best collected price 12.00 at coolbet implies 8% — a +4.0pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Augsburg vs Bayern Munich?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Bayern Munich the most likely outcome at 74%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 26%.

How does Clauseground predict Augsburg vs Bayern Munich?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.

Probabilities are labeled by source — market, model, or combined. How the model works →