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Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen — market analysis & odds

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

  1. 1 · Most likely result

    Borussia Dortmund

    68% means we estimate about 68 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.

    Overall: Borussia Dortmund 68% · Draw 18% · Werder Bremen 14%

  2. 2 · Understand the price

    Werder Bremen

    8.00 decimal odds

    Unibet nl · US +700

    collected

    This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 8.00 units total if successful.

  3. 3 · Compare probability

    +1.9 percentage points

    Our estimate is 14%; the price implies 13%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.

    Potential value to investigate

Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Borussia Dortmundmodel 62% · market 69% (model vs market −6.9pp)
Drawmodel 20% · market 17% (model vs market +2.8pp)
Werder Bremenmodel 18% · market 13% (model vs market +4.2pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 40 books quote this market · margin removed 5.6%

  • Borussia Dortmund

    1.38 at Betsson +3

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.4569.1% implieddifference −3.3pp

  • Draw

    5.75 at Coolbet +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 5.7517.4% implieddifference −0.0pp

  • Werder Bremen

    8.00 at Unibet +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 7.4213.5% implieddifference +1.0pp

Borussia Dortmund held from 1.37 to 1.37 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

0.495.099.6923 Sept, 17 UTC26 Sept, 16 UTC
Borussia DortmundDrawWerder Bremen
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 36–40 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 40 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
BookBorussia DortmundDrawWerder BremenCollected
888sport1.365.007.00
Betclic1.335.256.50
Betfair Sportsbook1.335.007.00
Betfred1.365.507.50
BetMGM1.365.257.25
BetRivers1.345.307.50
BetssonBest price: 1.384.757.70
BetUS1.375.507.00
Betway1.365.256.00
Bovada1.375.507.00
BoyleSports1.335.006.50
Caesars1.365.257.00
Codere1.375.607.00
Coolbet1.38Best price: 5.757.75
Coral1.365.257.00
DraftKings1.345.006.00
Everygame1.335.256.50
Fanatics1.365.507.50
FanDuel1.315.507.00
Grosvenor1.355.507.50
Ladbrokes1.365.257.00
LeoVegas1.355.256.25
LeoVegas1.335.207.00
LiveScore Bet1.325.107.00
Marathonbet1.365.657.70
NordicBet1.384.807.80
Paddy Power1.305.007.00
Pinnacle1.375.457.03
PMU1.345.257.00
Sky Bet1.335.257.00
Suprabets1.345.206.60
Tipico1.355.707.20
Unibet1.385.758.00
Unibet1.365.60Best price: 8.00
Unibet1.355.256.50
Unibet1.295.106.30
Virgin Bet1.345.257.00
William Hill1.365.007.00
Winamax1.305.105.80
Winamax1.294.905.60

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 3.5

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 14 books quote this market · margin removed 4.5%

  • Over 3.5

    1.97 at LeoVegas +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.0449.1% implieddifference −1.7pp

  • Under 3.5

    1.88 at Pinnacle

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.9650.9% implieddifference −2.3pp

Over 3.5 held from 1.95 to 1.95 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

1.871.921.9823 Sept, 17 UTC26 Sept, 16 UTC
Over 3.5Under 3.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 13–14 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 14 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 3.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 3.5Under 3.5Collected
BetMGM1.911.80
BetRivers1.951.81
BetUS1.951.87
Bovada1.951.87
Codere1.901.77
Coolbet1.941.87
Grosvenor1.951.81
LeoVegasBest price: 1.971.83
LeoVegas1.911.80
Pinnacle1.95Best price: 1.88
PMU1.851.71
Tipico1.851.87
Unibet1.971.83
Unibet1.951.81

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

no-vig from William Hill alone · 3 books quote this market · margin removed 6.9%

  • Over 2.5

    1.38 at Betsson

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.4568.8% implieddifference −3.7pp

  • Under 2.5

    3.10 at Betsson

    collected

    no-vig reference 3.2131.2% implieddifference −1.1pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.36 to 1.36 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.172.243.3123 Sept, 17 UTC26 Sept, 16 UTC
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 3 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 2.5Under 2.5Collected
BetssonBest price: 1.38Best price: 3.10
NordicBet1.373.05
William Hill1.363.00

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Both teams to score

no-vig from William Hill alone · 8 books quote this market · margin removed 5.4%

  • Both teams score

    1.60 at Coral +3

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.6560.5% implieddifference −2.0pp

  • Not both teams score

    2.40 at William Hill

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.5339.5% implieddifference −2.1pp

Both teams score held from 1.57 to 1.57 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.502.002.5023 Sept, 17 UTC26 Sept, 16 UTC
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 7–8 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 8 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
BookBoth teams scoreNot both teams scoreCollected
Betfred1.572.25
CoralBest price: 1.602.25
Ladbrokes1.572.25
LeoVegas1.602.20
LiveScore Bet1.602.23
Paddy Power1.572.25
Virgin Bet1.602.23
William Hill1.57Best price: 2.40

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

  • Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
  • Rest: Borussia Dortmund 20d, Werder Bremen 20d since last match.
  • League scoring baseline: 3.1 goals/game.
  • Home advantage applied for Borussia Dortmund.
  • Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Werder Bremen

Match result+3.0pp differencecombined

8.80 at NordicBet

combined fair 6.9440 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 14%model 18% · market 13% (model vs market +4.2pp)

estimate 14% · price implies 11% · +26.8% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Werder Bremen at 14%; best collected price 8.80 at nordicbet implies 11% — a +3.0pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Draw

Match result+0.7pp differencecombined

5.80 at Tipico

combined fair 5.5740 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 18%model 20% · market 17% (model vs market +2.8pp)

estimate 18% · price implies 17% · +4.2% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Draw at 18%; best collected price 5.80 at tipico_de implies 17% — a +0.7pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Borussia Dortmund the most likely outcome at 68%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 32%.

How does Clauseground predict Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.

Probabilities are labeled by source — market, model, or combined. How the model works →