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Premier League

Coventry City vs Newcastle United — market analysis & odds

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

  1. 1 · Most likely result

    Newcastle United

    44% means we estimate about 44 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.

    Overall: Coventry City 29% · Draw 27% · Newcastle United 44%

  2. 2 · Understand the price

    Coventry City

    3.55 decimal odds

    BetRivers · US +255

    collected

    This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 3.55 units total if successful.

  3. 3 · Compare probability

    +1.0 percentage points

    Our estimate is 29%; the price implies 28%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.

    Potential value to investigate

Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Coventry Citymodel 32% · market 28% (model vs market +3.9pp)
Drawmodel 27% · market 27% (model vs market −0.3pp)
Newcastle Unitedmodel 41% · market 45% (model vs market −3.6pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 30 books quote this market · margin removed 5.1%

  • Coventry City

    3.55 at BetRivers +2

    collected

    no-vig reference 3.5528.2% implieddifference −0.0pp

  • Draw

    3.80 at FanDuel +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 3.7127.0% implieddifference +0.6pp

  • Newcastle United

    2.15 at Betsson +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.2344.9% implieddifference −1.6pp

Coventry City held from 3.38 to 3.38 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

1.902.954.0016 Sept, 15 UTC19 Sept, 14 UTC
Coventry CityDrawNewcastle United
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 26–30 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 30 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
BookCoventry CityDrawNewcastle UnitedCollected
888sport3.303.402.05
Betclic3.183.371.96
Betfred3.303.752.05
BetRiversBest price: 3.553.752.05
Betsson3.343.48Best price: 2.15
BetUS3.503.602.00
Bovada3.353.702.05
BoyleSports3.303.402.10
Everygame3.253.402.05
Fanatics3.403.602.10
FanDuel3.30Best price: 3.802.05
Grosvenor3.453.702.02
LeoVegas3.453.702.02
LeoVegas3.203.502.02
LiveScore Bet3.353.551.98
Marathonbet3.443.622.10
NordicBet3.353.452.15
Paddy Power3.303.802.00
Pinnacle3.383.532.12
PMU3.403.602.00
Sky Bet3.253.752.05
Tipico3.503.502.05
Unibet3.553.752.05
Unibet3.553.752.05
Unibet3.303.502.05
Unibet3.203.301.95
Virgin Bet3.353.551.98
William Hill3.303.402.05
Winamax3.203.552.00
Winamax3.003.301.92

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

no-vig from William Hill alone · 13 books quote this market · margin removed 7.5%

  • Over 2.5

    1.71 at Betsson

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.8055.7% implieddifference −2.8pp

  • Under 2.5

    2.30 at BetUS

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.2644.3% implieddifference +0.8pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.67 to 1.67 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.611.992.3716 Sept, 15 UTC19 Sept, 14 UTC
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 10–13 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 13 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 2.5Under 2.5Collected
BetRivers1.682.16
BetssonBest price: 1.712.16
BetUS1.67Best price: 2.30
Bovada1.682.22
Grosvenor1.672.15
LeoVegas1.682.16
LeoVegas1.622.10
NordicBet1.702.15
PMU1.572.04
Tipico1.652.20
Unibet1.682.16
Unibet1.682.16
William Hill1.672.10

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Both teams to score

no-vig from William Hill alone · 6 books quote this market · margin removed 8.1%

  • Both teams score

    1.57 at Betfred +4

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.7058.9% implieddifference −4.8pp

  • Not both teams score

    2.30 at LeoVegas

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.4341.1% implieddifference −2.4pp

Both teams score held from 1.57 to 1.57 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.481.942.3916 Sept, 15 UTC19 Sept, 14 UTC
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 6 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 6 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
BookBoth teams scoreNot both teams scoreCollected
BetfredBest price: 1.572.25
LeoVegas1.55Best price: 2.30
LiveScore Bet1.572.28
Paddy Power1.572.25
Virgin Bet1.572.28
William Hill1.572.25

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

  • Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
  • Rest: Coventry City 29d, Newcastle United 28d since last match.
  • League scoring baseline: 2.85 goals/game.
  • Home advantage applied for Coventry City.
  • Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Coventry City

Match result+1.0pp differencecombined

3.55 at BetRivers

combined fair 3.4330 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 29%model 32% · market 28% (model vs market +3.9pp)

estimate 29% · price implies 28% · +3.4% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Coventry City at 29%; best collected price 3.55 at betrivers implies 28% — a +1.0pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Draw

Match result+0.6pp differencecombined

3.80 at FanDuel

combined fair 3.7230 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 27%model 27% · market 27% (model vs market −0.3pp)

estimate 27% · price implies 26% · +2.2% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Draw at 27%; best collected price 3.80 at fanduel implies 26% — a +0.6pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Coventry City vs Newcastle United?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Newcastle United the most likely outcome at 44%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 56%.

How does Clauseground predict Coventry City vs Newcastle United?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.

Probabilities are labeled by source — market, model, or combined. How the model works →