Liverpool vs Manchester City — market analysis & odds

Sun 11 Oct, 15:30 UTC · Anfield, Liverpool

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
Manchester City
38% means we estimate about 38 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Liverpool 36% · Draw 26% · Manchester City 38%
2 · Understand the price
Manchester City
2.58 decimal odds
Nordicbet · US +158
collected 22:40 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 2.58 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
−0.5 percentage points
Our estimate is 38%; the price implies 39%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
The price implies a higher chance than our estimate

Updated 22:50 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Liverpoolmodel 33% · market 37% (model vs market −3.9pp)

Drawmodel 26% · market 26% (model vs market +0.2pp)

Manchester Citymodel 41% · market 37% (model vs market +3.7pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

22:40 UTC

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 43 books quote this market · margin removed 4.9%

Liverpool
2.70 at BetMGM +4
collected 22:40 UTC
no-vig reference 2.7136.9% implieddifference −0.1pp
Draw
3.80 at BetRivers +4
collected 22:40 UTC
no-vig reference 3.8925.7% implieddifference −0.6pp
Manchester City
2.58 at NordicBet
collected 22:40 UTC
no-vig reference 2.6837.4% implieddifference −1.4pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Liverpool	2.70BetMGM +4	22:40 UTC	2.7136.9% implied	−0.1pp
Draw	3.80BetRivers +4	22:40 UTC	3.8925.7% implied	−0.6pp
Manchester City	2.58NordicBet	22:40 UTC	2.6837.4% implied	−1.4pp

Liverpool held from 2.58 to 2.58 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

LiverpoolDrawManchester City

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 42–44 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.

Every book’s current price — 43 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Liverpool	Draw	Manchester City	Collected
888sport	2.60	3.50	2.45	22:40 UTC
Betano	2.50	3.60	2.50	22:40 UTC
Betclic	2.50	3.50	2.42	22:40 UTC
Betfair Sportsbook	2.50	3.60	2.50	22:40 UTC
Betfred	2.62	3.75	2.50	22:40 UTC
BetMGM	Best price: 2.70	3.60	2.40	22:40 UTC
BetOnline	2.70	3.73	2.43	22:40 UTC
BetRivers	2.65	Best price: 3.80	2.50	22:40 UTC
Betsson	2.57	3.66	2.57	22:40 UTC
BetUS	2.55	3.60	2.50	22:40 UTC
BetVictor	2.50	3.60	2.50	22:40 UTC
Betway	2.50	3.60	2.40	22:40 UTC
Bovada	2.60	3.60	2.45	22:40 UTC
BoyleSports	2.50	3.60	2.50	22:40 UTC
Caesars	2.59	3.65	2.40	22:40 UTC
Codere	2.60	3.65	2.55	22:40 UTC
Coolbet	2.63	3.70	2.56	22:40 UTC
Coral	2.70	3.60	2.40	22:40 UTC
DraftKings	2.55	3.60	2.50	22:40 UTC
Fanatics	2.60	3.60	2.45	22:40 UTC
FanDuel	2.55	3.60	2.50	22:40 UTC
Grosvenor	2.65	3.80	2.50	22:40 UTC
Ladbrokes	2.70	3.60	2.40	22:40 UTC
LeoVegas	2.65	3.80	2.50	22:40 UTC
LeoVegas	2.50	3.50	2.50	22:40 UTC
LiveScore Bet	2.55	3.60	2.40	22:40 UTC
LowVig	2.70	3.73	2.43	22:40 UTC
Marathonbet	2.60	3.74	2.56	22:40 UTC
MyBookie	2.52	3.55	2.49	22:40 UTC
NordicBet	2.58	3.65	Best price: 2.58	22:40 UTC
Paddy Power	2.50	3.60	2.50	22:40 UTC
Pinnacle	2.58	3.71	2.55	22:40 UTC
PMU	2.48	3.50	2.33	22:40 UTC
Sky Bet	2.50	3.60	2.50	22:40 UTC
Tipico	2.60	3.60	2.50	22:40 UTC
Unibet	2.65	3.80	2.50	22:40 UTC
Unibet	2.65	3.80	2.50	22:40 UTC
Unibet	2.55	3.60	2.50	22:40 UTC
Unibet	2.45	3.40	2.35	22:40 UTC
Virgin Bet	2.55	3.60	2.40	22:40 UTC
William Hill	2.60	3.50	2.50	22:40 UTC
Winamax	2.45	3.65	2.45	22:40 UTC
Winamax	2.45	3.60	2.40	22:40 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

22:40 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 11 books quote this market · margin removed 8.1%

Over 2.5
1.60 at BetRivers +3
collected 22:40 UTC
no-vig reference 1.7058.9% implieddifference −3.6pp
Under 2.5
2.46 at Betsson
collected 22:40 UTC
no-vig reference 2.4341.1% implieddifference +0.4pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 2.5	1.60BetRivers +3	22:40 UTC	1.7058.9% implied	−3.6pp
Under 2.5	2.46Betsson	22:40 UTC	2.4341.1% implied	+0.4pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.57 to 1.57 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Over 2.5Under 2.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 10–14 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 11 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Collected
BetMGM	1.54	2.30	22:40 UTC
BetRivers	Best price: 1.60	2.32	22:40 UTC
Betsson	1.56	Best price: 2.46	22:40 UTC
Bovada	1.59	2.40	22:40 UTC
Grosvenor	1.57	2.30	22:40 UTC
LeoVegas	1.60	2.32	22:40 UTC
NordicBet	1.55	2.45	22:40 UTC
PMU	1.50	2.18	22:40 UTC
Unibet	1.60	2.32	22:40 UTC
Unibet	1.60	2.32	22:40 UTC
William Hill	1.57	2.25	22:40 UTC

Total goals 3

22:40 UTC

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 5 books quote this market · margin removed 4.2%

Over 3
1.90 at Coolbet
collected 22:40 UTC
no-vig reference 1.9651.0% implieddifference −1.6pp
Under 3
1.96 at BetOnline +3
collected 22:40 UTC
no-vig reference 2.0449.0% implieddifference −2.1pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 3	1.90Coolbet	22:40 UTC	1.9651.0% implied	−1.6pp
Under 3	1.96BetOnline +3	22:40 UTC	2.0449.0% implied	−2.1pp

Over 3 held from 1.88 to 1.88 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

Over 3Under 3

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 5 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.

Every book’s current price — 5 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 3. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 3	Under 3	Collected
BetOnline	1.85	Best price: 1.96	22:40 UTC
BetUS	1.88	1.94	22:40 UTC
Coolbet	Best price: 1.90	1.96	22:40 UTC
LowVig	1.85	1.96	22:40 UTC
Pinnacle	1.88	1.96	22:40 UTC

Both teams to score

22:40 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 8 books quote this market · margin removed 9.4%

Both teams score
1.50 at Betfred
collected 22:40 UTC
no-vig reference 1.5863.5% implieddifference −3.2pp
Not both teams score
2.60 at Paddy Power
collected 22:40 UTC
no-vig reference 2.7436.5% implieddifference −1.9pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Both teams score	1.50Betfred	22:40 UTC	1.5863.5% implied	−3.2pp
Not both teams score	2.60Paddy Power	22:40 UTC	2.7436.5% implied	−1.9pp

Both teams score held from 1.44 to 1.44 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Both teams scoreNot both teams score

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 8 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 8 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Both teams score	Not both teams score	Collected
Betfred	Best price: 1.50	2.50	22:40 UTC
Coral	1.48	2.50	22:40 UTC
Ladbrokes	1.48	2.50	22:40 UTC
LeoVegas	1.45	2.55	22:40 UTC
LiveScore Bet	1.49	2.43	22:40 UTC
Paddy Power	1.44	Best price: 2.60	22:40 UTC
Virgin Bet	1.49	2.43	22:40 UTC
William Hill	1.44	2.50	22:40 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: Liverpool 21d, Manchester City 21d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 2.85 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for Liverpool.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

No current price clears the publication threshold.

The market may be close to the estimate, the available data may be incomplete, or the price may have moved. Passing is a valid result.

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Liverpool vs Manchester City?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Manchester City the most likely outcome at 38%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 62%.

How does Clauseground predict Liverpool vs Manchester City?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.