Hull City vs Everton — market analysis & odds

Sun 11 Oct, 13:00 UTC

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
Everton
45% means we estimate about 45 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Hull City 27% · Draw 28% · Everton 45%
2 · Understand the price
Hull City
3.85 decimal odds
BetRivers · US +285
collected 04:00 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 3.85 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+1.1 percentage points
Our estimate is 27%; the price implies 26%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 04:10 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Hull Citymodel 32% · market 26% (model vs market +6.0pp)

Drawmodel 29% · market 28% (model vs market +1.0pp)

Evertonmodel 40% · market 47% (model vs market −7.0pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

04:00 UTC

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 44 books quote this market · margin removed 5.2%

Hull City
3.85 at BetRivers +5
collected 04:00 UTC
no-vig reference 3.9125.5% implieddifference −0.4pp
Draw
3.46 at Marathonbet
collected 04:00 UTC
no-vig reference 3.5927.9% implieddifference −1.0pp
Everton
2.11 at Codere
collected 04:00 UTC
no-vig reference 2.1546.6% implieddifference −0.8pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Hull City	3.85BetRivers +5	04:00 UTC	3.9125.5% implied	−0.4pp
Draw	3.46Marathonbet	04:00 UTC	3.5927.9% implied	−1.0pp
Everton	2.11Codere	04:00 UTC	2.1546.6% implied	−0.8pp

Draw drifted from 3.39 to 3.41 (+0.6%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

Hull CityDrawEverton

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 41–44 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.

Every book’s current price — 44 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Hull City	Draw	Everton	Collected
888sport	3.60	3.30	2.05	04:00 UTC
Betano	3.60	3.30	2.00	04:00 UTC
Betclic	3.40	3.23	2.02	04:00 UTC
Betfair Sportsbook	3.50	3.40	2.00	01:40 UTC
Betfred	3.50	3.40	2.10	04:00 UTC
BetMGM	3.60	3.30	2.10	04:00 UTC
BetOnline	3.76	3.38	2.05	04:00 UTC
BetRivers	Best price: 3.85	3.30	2.10	04:00 UTC
Betsson	3.74	3.34	2.06	04:00 UTC
BetUS	3.40	3.40	2.05	04:00 UTC
BetVictor	3.60	3.30	2.00	04:00 UTC
Betway	3.50	3.30	2.00	04:00 UTC
Bovada	3.60	3.35	2.05	04:00 UTC
BoyleSports	3.75	3.30	2.00	04:00 UTC
Caesars	3.55	3.30	2.04	04:00 UTC
Codere	3.55	3.40	Best price: 2.11	04:00 UTC
Coolbet	3.85	3.37	2.07	04:00 UTC
Coral	3.60	3.40	2.10	04:00 UTC
DraftKings	3.60	3.30	2.05	04:00 UTC
Everygame	3.60	3.25	2.00	03:40 UTC
Fanatics	3.60	3.30	2.10	04:00 UTC
FanDuel	3.50	3.40	2.05	04:00 UTC
Grosvenor	3.85	3.30	2.10	04:00 UTC
Ladbrokes	3.50	3.30	2.10	04:00 UTC
LeoVegas	3.85	3.30	2.10	04:00 UTC
LeoVegas	3.40	3.25	2.05	04:00 UTC
LiveScore Bet	3.65	3.15	2.02	04:00 UTC
LowVig	3.76	3.38	2.05	04:00 UTC
Marathonbet	3.72	Best price: 3.46	2.06	04:00 UTC
MyBookie	3.44	3.28	2.07	04:00 UTC
NordicBet	3.75	3.35	2.05	04:00 UTC
Paddy Power	3.50	3.40	2.00	04:00 UTC
Pinnacle	3.72	3.41	2.04	04:00 UTC
PMU	3.55	3.05	1.96	04:00 UTC
Sky Bet	3.40	3.40	2.05	03:40 UTC
Tipico	3.60	3.40	2.05	04:00 UTC
Unibet	3.85	3.30	2.10	04:00 UTC
Unibet	3.85	3.30	2.10	04:00 UTC
Unibet	3.50	3.30	2.08	04:00 UTC
Unibet	3.30	3.10	1.96	04:00 UTC
Virgin Bet	3.65	3.15	2.02	04:00 UTC
William Hill	3.60	3.30	2.05	04:00 UTC
Winamax	3.45	3.30	2.00	04:00 UTC
Winamax	3.40	3.30	2.00	04:00 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

04:00 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 16 books quote this market · margin removed 7.5%

Over 2.5
2.20 at BetRivers +3
collected 04:00 UTC
no-vig reference 2.2644.3% implieddifference −1.2pp
Under 2.5
1.77 at Tipico
collected 04:00 UTC
no-vig reference 1.8055.7% implieddifference −0.8pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 2.5	2.20BetRivers +3	04:00 UTC	2.2644.3% implied	−1.2pp
Under 2.5	1.77Tipico	04:00 UTC	1.8055.7% implied	−0.8pp

Over 2.5 held from 2.10 to 2.10 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Over 2.5Under 2.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 16 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 16 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Collected
BetMGM	2.05	1.69	04:00 UTC
BetRivers	Best price: 2.20	1.66	04:00 UTC
Betsson	2.09	1.76	04:00 UTC
Bovada	2.12	1.75	04:00 UTC
Codere	2.02	1.68	04:00 UTC
Coolbet	2.15	1.75	04:00 UTC
Grosvenor	2.18	1.65	04:00 UTC
LeoVegas	2.20	1.66	04:00 UTC
LeoVegas	2.00	1.70	04:00 UTC
MyBookie	2.04	1.70	04:00 UTC
NordicBet	2.08	1.75	04:00 UTC
PMU	2.07	1.56	04:00 UTC
Tipico	2.00	Best price: 1.77	04:00 UTC
Unibet	2.20	1.66	04:00 UTC
Unibet	2.20	1.66	04:00 UTC
William Hill	2.10	1.67	04:00 UTC

Total goals 2.25

04:00 UTC

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 4 books quote this market · margin removed 4.4%

Over 2.25
1.86 at BetOnline +1
collected 04:00 UTC
no-vig reference 1.9152.3% implieddifference −1.4pp
Under 2.25
2.01 at Pinnacle
collected 04:00 UTC
no-vig reference 2.1047.7% implieddifference −2.1pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 2.25	1.86BetOnline +1	04:00 UTC	1.9152.3% implied	−1.4pp
Under 2.25	2.01Pinnacle	04:00 UTC	2.1047.7% implied	−2.1pp

Over 2.25 shortened from 1.84 to 1.83 (−0.5%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

Over 2.25Under 2.25

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 4 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.

Every book’s current price — 4 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.25. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 2.25	Under 2.25	Collected
BetOnline	Best price: 1.86	1.95	04:00 UTC
BetUS	1.83	2.00	04:00 UTC
LowVig	1.86	1.95	04:00 UTC
Pinnacle	1.83	Best price: 2.01	04:00 UTC

Both teams to score

04:00 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 8 books quote this market · margin removed 8.1%

Both teams score
1.89 at LiveScore Bet +1
collected 04:00 UTC
no-vig reference 2.0050.0% implieddifference −2.9pp
Not both teams score
1.91 at Coral +1
collected 04:00 UTC
no-vig reference 2.0050.0% implieddifference −2.4pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Both teams score	1.89LiveScore Bet +1	04:00 UTC	2.0050.0% implied	−2.9pp
Not both teams score	1.91Coral +1	04:00 UTC	2.0050.0% implied	−2.4pp

Both teams score held from 1.85 to 1.85 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Both teams scoreNot both teams score

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 8 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 8 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Both teams score	Not both teams score	Collected
Betfred	1.83	1.83	04:00 UTC
Coral	1.83	Best price: 1.91	04:00 UTC
Ladbrokes	1.83	1.91	04:00 UTC
LeoVegas	1.83	1.88	04:00 UTC
LiveScore Bet	Best price: 1.89	1.82	04:00 UTC
Paddy Power	1.85	1.85	04:00 UTC
Virgin Bet	1.89	1.82	04:00 UTC
William Hill	1.85	1.85	04:00 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: Hull City 22d, Everton 22d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 2.85 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for Hull City.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Hull City

Match result+1.1pp differencecombined

3.85 at BetRivers

combined fair 3.7044 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 27%model 32% · market 26% (model vs market +6.0pp)

estimate 27% · price implies 26% · +4.1% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Hull City at 27%; best collected price 3.85 at betrivers implies 26% — a +1.1pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 04:10 UTC

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Hull City vs Everton?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Everton the most likely outcome at 45%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 55%.

How does Clauseground predict Hull City vs Everton?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.