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Premier League

Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest — market analysis & odds

· Selhurst Park, London

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

  1. 1 · Most likely result

    Crystal Palace

    37% means we estimate about 37 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.

    Overall: Crystal Palace 37% · Draw 28% · Nottingham Forest 35%

  2. 2 · Understand the price

    Crystal Palace

    2.70 decimal odds

    BetRivers · US +170

    collected

    This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 2.70 units total if successful.

  3. 3 · Compare probability

    +0.1 percentage points

    Our estimate is 37%; the price implies 37%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.

    Potential value to investigate

Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Crystal Palacemodel 39% · market 36% (model vs market +2.9pp)
Drawmodel 29% · market 28% (model vs market +0.8pp)
Nottingham Forestmodel 32% · market 36% (model vs market −3.7pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 44 books quote this market · margin removed 4.9%

  • Crystal Palace

    2.70 at BetRivers +4

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.7536.4% implieddifference −0.7pp

  • Draw

    3.43 at BetOnline +2

    collected

    no-vig reference 3.6027.8% implieddifference −1.4pp

  • Nottingham Forest

    2.75 at Tipico

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.7935.8% implieddifference −0.5pp

Crystal Palace held from 2.62 to 2.62 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

2.613.073.5224 Sept, 15 UTC27 Sept, 14 UTC
Crystal PalaceDrawNottingham Forest
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 42–44 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 44 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
BookCrystal PalaceDrawNottingham ForestCollected
888sport2.623.102.62
Betano2.553.302.62
Betclic2.503.152.62
Betfair Sportsbook2.553.402.63
Betfred2.603.402.62
BetMGM2.603.402.60
BetOnline2.62Best price: 3.432.66
BetRiversBest price: 2.703.352.70
Betsson2.593.342.73
BetUS2.633.002.70
BetVictor2.553.302.62
Betway2.503.302.60
Bovada2.603.352.60
BoyleSports2.603.402.62
Caesars2.583.352.63
Codere2.653.252.70
Coolbet2.673.362.72
Coral2.623.402.62
DraftKings2.603.352.60
Everygame2.553.302.55
Fanatics2.603.302.65
FanDuel2.553.402.65
Grosvenor2.703.352.70
Ladbrokes2.603.302.60
LeoVegas2.703.352.70
LeoVegas2.553.202.60
LiveScore Bet2.603.202.60
LowVig2.623.432.66
Marathonbet2.673.382.68
MyBookie2.583.182.65
NordicBet2.603.352.72
Paddy Power2.503.402.62
Pinnacle2.623.432.66
PMU2.503.102.55
Sky Bet2.503.402.63
Tipico2.603.20Best price: 2.75
Unibet2.703.352.70
Unibet2.703.352.70
Unibet2.603.202.70
Unibet2.453.102.55
Virgin Bet2.603.202.60
William Hill2.623.202.62
Winamax2.503.302.60
Winamax2.503.252.55

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 20 books quote this market · margin removed 4.3%

  • Over 2.5

    2.07 at BetRivers +3

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.1446.8% implieddifference −1.6pp

  • Under 2.5

    1.83 at Coolbet +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.8853.2% implieddifference −1.4pp

Over 2.5 held from 2.05 to 2.05 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

1.801.952.1024 Sept, 15 UTC27 Sept, 14 UTC
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 20 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 20 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 2.5Under 2.5Collected
BetMGM1.981.74
BetOnline2.001.82
BetRiversBest price: 2.071.74
Betsson2.041.80
BetUS2.021.82
Bovada2.021.82
Codere1.941.74
Coolbet2.05Best price: 1.83
Grosvenor2.061.73
LeoVegas2.071.74
LeoVegas1.921.75
LowVig2.001.82
MyBookie1.961.76
NordicBet2.021.78
Pinnacle2.051.80
PMU1.941.64
Tipico1.931.83
Unibet2.071.74
Unibet2.071.74
William Hill2.001.70

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Both teams to score

no-vig from William Hill alone · 8 books quote this market · margin removed 8.4%

  • Both teams score

    1.80 at Betfred

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.9052.7% implieddifference −2.9pp

  • Not both teams score

    2.00 at LeoVegas

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.1147.3% implieddifference −2.7pp

Both teams score held from 1.75 to 1.75 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.781.902.0224 Sept, 15 UTC27 Sept, 14 UTC
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 8 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 8 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
BookBoth teams scoreNot both teams scoreCollected
BetfredBest price: 1.801.91
Coral1.751.95
Ladbrokes1.751.95
LeoVegas1.73Best price: 2.00
LiveScore Bet1.771.95
Paddy Power1.751.95
Virgin Bet1.771.95
William Hill1.751.95

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

  • Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
  • Rest: Crystal Palace 21d, Nottingham Forest 22d since last match.
  • League scoring baseline: 2.85 goals/game.
  • Home advantage applied for Crystal Palace.
  • Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

No current price clears the publication threshold.

The market may be close to the estimate, the available data may be incomplete, or the price may have moved. Passing is a valid result.

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Crystal Palace the most likely outcome at 37%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 63%.

How does Clauseground predict Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.

Probabilities are labeled by source — market, model, or combined. How the model works →