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Premier League

Ipswich Town vs Fulham — market analysis & odds

· Portman Road, Ipswich

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

  1. 1 · Most likely result

    Fulham

    38% means we estimate about 38 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.

    Overall: Ipswich Town 35% · Draw 27% · Fulham 38%

  2. 2 · Understand the price

    Draw

    3.64 decimal odds

    Coolbet · US +264

    collected

    This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 3.64 units total if successful.

  3. 3 · Compare probability

    −0.6 percentage points

    Our estimate is 27%; the price implies 27%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.

    The price implies a higher chance than our estimate

Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Ipswich Townmodel 34% · market 36% (model vs market −1.6pp)
Drawmodel 28% · market 26% (model vs market +1.6pp)
Fulhammodel 38% · market 38% (model vs market −0.0pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 44 books quote this market · margin removed 5.1%

  • Ipswich Town

    2.75 at Codere +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.7935.8% implieddifference −0.6pp

  • Draw

    3.64 at Coolbet

    collected

    no-vig reference 3.7826.4% implieddifference −1.0pp

  • Fulham

    2.60 at Betfred +3

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.6537.8% implieddifference −0.7pp

Ipswich Town held from 2.66 to 2.66 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

2.483.123.7624 Sept, 17 UTC27 Sept, 16 UTC
Ipswich TownDrawFulham
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 42–44 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 44 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
BookIpswich TownDrawFulhamCollected
888sport2.623.302.50
Betano2.623.502.45
Betclic2.633.352.37
Betfair Sportsbook2.703.402.50
Betfred2.623.50Best price: 2.60
BetMGM2.653.502.50
BetOnline2.663.602.52
BetRivers2.703.552.60
Betsson2.703.522.52
BetUS2.653.502.50
BetVictor2.623.502.45
Betway2.503.502.40
Bovada2.653.502.50
BoyleSports2.603.602.40
Caesars2.673.452.46
CodereBest price: 2.753.502.50
Coolbet2.71Best price: 3.642.53
Coral2.703.502.50
DraftKings2.603.502.50
Everygame2.553.452.45
Fanatics2.653.502.50
FanDuel2.703.402.50
Grosvenor2.633.502.55
Ladbrokes2.623.502.50
LeoVegas2.653.402.40
LeoVegas2.633.502.55
LiveScore Bet2.553.402.50
LowVig2.663.602.52
Marathonbet2.713.522.56
MyBookie2.663.382.44
NordicBet2.703.502.52
Paddy Power2.703.402.50
Pinnacle2.663.602.52
PMU2.503.252.43
Sky Bet2.633.402.50
Tipico2.753.402.50
Unibet2.703.552.60
Unibet2.703.552.60
Unibet2.703.402.45
Unibet2.553.302.30
Virgin Bet2.553.402.50
William Hill2.703.302.50
Winamax2.603.452.40
Winamax2.603.452.35

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

no-vig from William Hill alone · 19 books quote this market · margin removed 8.4%

  • Over 2.5

    1.77 at Coolbet

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.9052.7% implieddifference −3.8pp

  • Under 2.5

    2.16 at BetUS

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.1147.3% implieddifference +1.0pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.75 to 1.75 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.721.972.2124 Sept, 17 UTC27 Sept, 16 UTC
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 19 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 19 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 2.5Under 2.5Collected
BetMGM1.741.98
BetOnline1.742.09
BetRivers1.742.07
Betsson1.762.09
BetUS1.74Best price: 2.16
Bovada1.742.13
Codere1.692.01
CoolbetBest price: 1.772.13
Grosvenor1.732.06
LeoVegas1.752.07
LeoVegas1.672.05
LowVig1.742.09
MyBookie1.702.03
NordicBet1.752.08
PMU1.641.93
Tipico1.702.10
Unibet1.752.07
Unibet1.742.07
William Hill1.751.95

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Both teams to score

no-vig from William Hill alone · 8 books quote this market · margin removed 8.2%

  • Both teams score

    1.62 at Betfred +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.7557.0% implieddifference −4.7pp

  • Not both teams score

    2.25 at LeoVegas +3

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.3343.0% implieddifference −1.5pp

Both teams score held from 1.62 to 1.62 (+0.0%) over 23h, measured on William Hill.

1.541.962.3824 Sept, 17 UTC27 Sept, 16 UTC
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 8 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 8 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
BookBoth teams scoreNot both teams scoreCollected
BetfredBest price: 1.622.20
Coral1.612.20
Ladbrokes1.612.20
LeoVegas1.57Best price: 2.25
LiveScore Bet1.572.25
Paddy Power1.572.25
Virgin Bet1.572.25
William Hill1.622.15

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

  • Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
  • Rest: Ipswich Town 21d, Fulham 20d since last match.
  • League scoring baseline: 2.85 goals/game.
  • Home advantage applied for Ipswich Town.
  • Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Under 2.5

Totals+0.7pp differencecombined

2.16 at BetUS

combined fair 2.1319 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 47%model 46% · market 47% (model vs market −1.2pp)

estimate 47% · price implies 46% · +1.5% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Under 2.5 at 47%; best collected price 2.16 at betus implies 46% — a +0.7pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Ipswich Town vs Fulham?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Fulham the most likely outcome at 38%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 62%.

How does Clauseground predict Ipswich Town vs Fulham?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.

Probabilities are labeled by source — market, model, or combined. How the model works →