Aston Villa vs Brentford — market analysis & odds

Sat 10 Oct, 14:00 UTC · Villa Park, Birmingham

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

1 · Most likely result
Aston Villa
40% means we estimate about 40 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.
Overall: Aston Villa 40% · Draw 26% · Brentford 34%
2 · Understand the price
Aston Villa
2.67 decimal odds
Coolbet · US +167
collected 02:00 UTC
This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 2.67 units total if successful.
3 · Compare probability
+2.2 percentage points
Our estimate is 40%; the price implies 37%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.
Potential value to investigate

Updated 02:00 UTC · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Aston Villamodel 50% · market 36% (model vs market +13.8pp)

Drawmodel 25% · market 27% (model vs market −1.7pp)

Brentfordmodel 25% · market 37% (model vs market −12.1pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

02:00 UTC

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 44 books quote this market · margin removed 5.0%

Aston Villa
2.67 at Coolbet
collected 02:00 UTC
no-vig reference 2.7636.2% implieddifference −1.2pp
Draw
3.65 at BetRivers +2
collected 02:00 UTC
no-vig reference 3.7326.8% implieddifference −0.6pp
Brentford
2.71 at Marathonbet
collected 02:00 UTC
no-vig reference 2.7136.9% implieddifference +0.0pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Aston Villa	2.67Coolbet	02:00 UTC	2.7636.2% implied	−1.2pp
Draw	3.65BetRivers +2	02:00 UTC	3.7326.8% implied	−0.6pp
Brentford	2.71Marathonbet	02:00 UTC	2.7136.9% implied	+0.0pp

Aston Villa held from 2.63 to 2.63 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

Aston VillaDrawBrentford

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 42–44 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.

Every book’s current price — 44 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Aston Villa	Draw	Brentford	Collected
888sport	2.50	3.30	2.62	02:00 UTC
Betano	2.55	3.50	2.50	02:00 UTC
Betclic	2.57	3.38	2.40	02:00 UTC
Betfair Sportsbook	2.55	3.60	2.55	02:00 UTC
Betfred	2.60	3.60	2.50	02:00 UTC
BetMGM	2.60	3.60	2.55	02:00 UTC
BetOnline	2.63	3.56	2.58	02:00 UTC
BetRivers	2.60	Best price: 3.65	2.65	02:00 UTC
Betsson	2.63	3.52	2.58	02:00 UTC
BetUS	2.55	3.55	2.50	02:00 UTC
BetVictor	2.55	3.50	2.50	02:00 UTC
Betway	2.50	3.50	2.40	02:00 UTC
Bovada	2.55	3.55	2.50	02:00 UTC
BoyleSports	2.60	3.50	2.50	02:00 UTC
Caesars	2.61	3.50	2.52	02:00 UTC
Codere	2.65	3.55	2.55	02:00 UTC
Coolbet	Best price: 2.67	3.57	2.58	02:00 UTC
Coral	2.60	3.60	2.50	02:00 UTC
DraftKings	2.60	3.50	2.55	02:00 UTC
Everygame	2.55	3.40	2.50	02:00 UTC
Fanatics	2.60	3.40	2.60	02:00 UTC
FanDuel	2.55	3.60	2.55	02:00 UTC
Grosvenor	2.55	3.60	2.60	02:00 UTC
Ladbrokes	2.60	3.50	2.50	02:00 UTC
LeoVegas	2.55	3.45	2.45	02:00 UTC
LeoVegas	2.55	3.60	2.60	02:00 UTC
LiveScore Bet	2.48	3.45	2.55	02:00 UTC
LowVig	2.63	3.56	2.58	02:00 UTC
Marathonbet	2.56	3.52	Best price: 2.71	02:00 UTC
MyBookie	2.60	3.42	2.48	02:00 UTC
NordicBet	2.62	3.50	2.58	02:00 UTC
Paddy Power	2.50	3.60	2.50	02:00 UTC
Pinnacle	2.63	3.55	2.58	02:00 UTC
PMU	2.43	3.35	2.48	02:00 UTC
Sky Bet	2.50	3.60	2.50	02:00 UTC
Tipico	2.65	3.50	2.50	02:00 UTC
Unibet	2.60	3.65	2.65	02:00 UTC
Unibet	2.60	3.65	2.65	02:00 UTC
Unibet	2.60	3.50	2.50	02:00 UTC
Unibet	2.50	3.30	2.35	02:00 UTC
Virgin Bet	2.48	3.45	2.55	02:00 UTC
William Hill	2.50	3.40	2.62	02:00 UTC
Winamax	2.55	3.50	2.45	02:00 UTC
Winamax	2.50	3.50	2.40	02:00 UTC

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

02:00 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 16 books quote this market · margin removed 7.8%

Over 2.5
1.73 at William Hill
collected 02:00 UTC
no-vig reference 1.8653.6% implieddifference −4.2pp
Under 2.5
2.25 at BetUS +1
collected 02:00 UTC
no-vig reference 2.1646.4% implieddifference +1.9pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 2.5	1.73William Hill	02:00 UTC	1.8653.6% implied	−4.2pp
Under 2.5	2.25BetUS +1	02:00 UTC	2.1646.4% implied	+1.9pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.73 to 1.73 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Over 2.5Under 2.5

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 16 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 16 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 2.5	Under 2.5	Collected
BetMGM	1.65	2.10	02:00 UTC
BetRivers	1.68	2.15	02:00 UTC
Betsson	1.67	2.23	02:00 UTC
BetUS	1.69	Best price: 2.25	02:00 UTC
Bovada	1.69	2.20	02:00 UTC
Codere	1.63	2.10	02:00 UTC
Grosvenor	1.68	2.14	02:00 UTC
LeoVegas	1.68	2.15	02:00 UTC
LeoVegas	1.62	2.10	02:00 UTC
MyBookie	1.65	2.12	02:00 UTC
NordicBet	1.65	2.22	02:00 UTC
PMU	1.57	2.02	02:00 UTC
Tipico	1.62	2.25	02:00 UTC
Unibet	1.68	2.15	02:00 UTC
Unibet	1.68	2.15	02:00 UTC
William Hill	Best price: 1.73	2.00	02:00 UTC

Total goals 3

02:00 UTC

3 books pricing this market · no reference book quoted every outcome, so no no-vig price is shown

Over 3
2.11 at Coolbet
collected 02:00 UTC
no-vig reference —difference —
Under 3
1.78 at Coolbet
collected 02:00 UTC
no-vig reference —difference —

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Over 3	2.11Coolbet	02:00 UTC	—	—
Under 3	1.78Coolbet	02:00 UTC	—	—

No reference-book quote from 24 hours ago, so no movement is claimed for this market.

Over 3Under 3

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 3 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected.

Every book’s current price — 3 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 3. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Over 3	Under 3	Collected
BetOnline	2.07	1.76	02:00 UTC
Coolbet	Best price: 2.11	Best price: 1.78	02:00 UTC
LowVig	2.07	1.76	02:00 UTC

Both teams to score

02:00 UTC

no-vig from William Hill alone · 8 books quote this market · margin removed 8.0%

Both teams score
1.57 at Betfred +1
collected 02:00 UTC
no-vig reference 1.6759.7% implieddifference −4.0pp
Not both teams score
2.38 at LeoVegas
collected 02:00 UTC
no-vig reference 2.4840.3% implieddifference −1.8pp

Outcome	Best collected price	Collected	No-vig reference	Difference
Both teams score	1.57Betfred +1	02:00 UTC	1.6759.7% implied	−4.0pp
Not both teams score	2.38LeoVegas	02:00 UTC	2.4840.3% implied	−1.8pp

Both teams score held from 1.55 to 1.55 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

Both teams scoreNot both teams score

Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 8 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.

Every book’s current price — 8 venues collected

Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
Book	Both teams score	Not both teams score	Collected
Betfred	Best price: 1.57	2.25	02:00 UTC
Coral	1.55	2.30	02:00 UTC
Ladbrokes	1.55	2.30	02:00 UTC
LeoVegas	1.52	Best price: 2.38	02:00 UTC
LiveScore Bet	1.54	2.32	02:00 UTC
Paddy Power	1.57	2.25	02:00 UTC
Virgin Bet	1.54	2.32	02:00 UTC
William Hill	1.55	2.30	02:00 UTC

Evidence and inputs

Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
Rest: Aston Villa 21d, Brentford 22d since last match.
League scoring baseline: 2.85 goals/game.
Home advantage applied for Aston Villa.
Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Aston Villa

Match result+2.2pp differencecombined

2.67 at Coolbet

combined fair 2.5244 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 40%model 50% · market 36% (model vs market +13.8pp)

estimate 40% · price implies 37% · +5.9% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Aston Villa at 40%; best collected price 2.67 at coolbet implies 37% — a +2.2pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced 01:50 UTC

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Aston Villa vs Brentford?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Aston Villa the most likely outcome at 40%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 60%.

How does Clauseground predict Aston Villa vs Brentford?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.