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Premier League

Arsenal vs Leeds United — market analysis & odds

· Emirates Stadium, London

Quick readAlready know odds? Jump to expert analysis ↓

Read this match in three steps

Probability is the common language. Venue prices are translated underneath so sportsbook and prediction-market users can compare the same idea.

  1. 1 · Most likely result

    Arsenal

    70% means we estimate about 70 chances out of 100. It is not a guarantee.

    Overall: Arsenal 70% · Draw 19% · Leeds United 11%

  2. 2 · Understand the price

    Leeds United

    9.00 decimal odds

    Nordicbet · US +800

    collected

    This is not a dollar amount. A 1-unit stake would return 9.00 units total if successful.

  3. 3 · Compare probability

    +0.3 percentage points

    Our estimate is 11%; the price implies 11%. A positive difference is a reason to investigate, not proof of profit.

    Potential value to investigate

Updated · overall, market, and model views are labeled separately

Expert analysisFull detail remains available

Why the model and market differ

Market and model are independent views, not competing answers. Their difference is shown in percentage points (pp) and is a prompt to investigate assumptions or missing information.

Arsenalmodel 74% · market 68% (model vs market +5.3pp)
Drawmodel 17% · market 19% (model vs market −1.7pp)
Leeds Unitedmodel 9% · market 12% (model vs market −3.6pp)

Market = probability from the designated reference market after bookmaker margin is removed. Model = independent Dixon-Coles-adjusted simulation. The Quick read uses the separately labeled overall estimate, which combines these inputs.

Every market, every book, and how the price moved

For each market: the reference book’s price with its margin removed, the most favourable price we collected and where, the difference between them, and the price history over the last 72 hours. Prices move — check the venue before acting.

Match result (1X2)

no-vig from Pinnacle alone · 44 books quote this market · margin removed 5.8%

  • Arsenal

    1.43 at Codere

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.4668.5% implieddifference −1.5pp

  • Draw

    5.25 at BetOnline +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 5.2219.2% implieddifference +0.1pp

  • Leeds United

    9.00 at NordicBet

    collected

    no-vig reference 8.1012.4% implieddifference +1.2pp

Arsenal held from 1.38 to 1.38 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on Pinnacle.

0.505.219.9125 Sept, 02 UTC28 Sept, 01 UTC
ArsenalDrawLeeds United
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 42–44 books across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from Pinnacle alone.
Every book’s current price — 44 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Match result (1X2). The best price in each column is marked.
BookArsenalDrawLeeds UnitedCollected
888sport1.364.607.50
Betano1.364.608.00
Betclic1.384.506.60
Betfair Sportsbook1.334.758.50
Betfred1.364.608.00
BetMGM1.405.007.00
BetOnline1.36Best price: 5.257.90
BetRivers1.385.208.50
Betsson1.394.508.91
BetUS1.364.907.50
BetVictor1.364.608.00
Betway1.364.757.00
Bovada1.364.907.50
BoyleSports1.364.507.50
Caesars1.384.807.75
CodereBest price: 1.434.807.20
Coolbet1.385.008.50
Coral1.405.007.00
DraftKings1.374.807.50
Everygame1.364.757.25
Fanatics1.365.007.50
FanDuel1.334.908.00
Grosvenor1.365.108.00
Ladbrokes1.405.007.00
LeoVegas1.364.607.00
LeoVegas1.365.108.00
LiveScore Bet1.354.907.50
LowVig1.365.257.90
Marathonbet1.404.908.00
MyBookie1.404.606.80
NordicBet1.394.50Best price: 9.00
Paddy Power1.334.758.50
Pinnacle1.384.937.65
PMU1.324.707.50
Sky Bet1.334.808.00
Tipico1.355.207.80
Unibet1.385.208.50
Unibet1.385.208.50
Unibet1.374.757.50
Unibet1.354.306.30
Virgin Bet1.354.907.50
William Hill1.364.607.50
Winamax1.374.806.75
Winamax1.364.706.75

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Total goals 2.5

no-vig from William Hill alone · 19 books quote this market · margin removed 8.7%

  • Over 2.5

    1.78 at BetUS +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.8155.1% implieddifference −1.1pp

  • Under 2.5

    2.15 at Coolbet

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.2344.9% implieddifference −1.6pp

Over 2.5 held from 1.67 to 1.67 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.721.962.2025 Sept, 02 UTC28 Sept, 01 UTC
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 19 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 19 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Total goals 2.5. The best price in each column is marked.
BookOver 2.5Under 2.5Collected
BetMGM1.712.00
BetOnline1.772.06
BetRivers1.762.05
Betsson1.762.09
BetUSBest price: 1.782.08
Bovada1.782.08
Codere1.672.04
Coolbet1.75Best price: 2.15
Grosvenor1.742.04
LeoVegas1.762.05
LeoVegas1.672.05
LowVig1.772.06
MyBookie1.682.06
NordicBet1.752.08
PMU1.651.93
Tipico1.702.10
Unibet1.762.05
Unibet1.762.05
William Hill1.672.05

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Both teams to score

no-vig from William Hill alone · 8 books quote this market · margin removed 8.4%

  • Both teams score

    2.05 at Coral +1

    collected

    no-vig reference 2.1147.3% implieddifference −1.5pp

  • Not both teams score

    1.77 at LeoVegas

    collected

    no-vig reference 1.9052.7% implieddifference −3.8pp

Both teams score held from 1.95 to 1.95 (+0.0%) over 24h, measured on William Hill.

1.711.922.1425 Sept, 02 UTC28 Sept, 01 UTC
Both teams scoreNot both teams score
Each hour, the best price offered by any book quoting this outcome — 8 books throughout across the window. Because the set of quoting books changes hour to hour, a step in the line can be a book arriving or leaving rather than a price moving; the movement figure above is measured on one book across two timestamps precisely to avoid that. Every hour in the window was collected. The no-vig reference is a separate calculation, from William Hill alone.
Every book’s current price — 8 venues collected
Current decimal price at every collected book for Both teams to score. The best price in each column is marked.
BookBoth teams scoreNot both teams scoreCollected
Betfred2.001.73
CoralBest price: 2.051.70
Ladbrokes2.051.70
LeoVegas1.95Best price: 1.77
LiveScore Bet2.041.70
Paddy Power2.001.73
Virgin Bet2.041.70
William Hill1.951.75

Exchange lay prices, outlier soft-book prices, and any price above a per-market sanity ceiling are excluded — they are not prices a customer can take, and including them would inflate every “best price” on this page. The ceiling is a blunt rule and will occasionally discard a genuine long price. A dash means that book did not quote that outcome in the latest collected set.

Evidence and inputs

  • Monte Carlo simulation: 50,000 runs (engine v1.1-dc-poisson-mktshares).
  • Rest: Arsenal 21d, Leeds United 20d since last match.
  • League scoring baseline: 2.85 goals/game.
  • Home advantage applied for Arsenal.
  • Lineups unconfirmed at last model run.

Potential value to investigate

Over 2.5

Totals+1.4pp differencecombined

1.78 at BetUS

combined fair 1.7419 books priced this outcomeno 24h reference

combined estimate 58%model 65% · market 55% (model vs market +9.8pp)

estimate 58% · price implies 56% · +2.5% expected return if the estimate is right

Combined estimate puts Over 2.5 at 58%; best collected price 1.78 at betus implies 56% — a +1.4pp calculated difference, not a guaranteed edge.

priced

Open the price-comparison viewEvery current comparison, with the price history and rationale, in the app.

Questions

Who is most likely to win Arsenal vs Leeds United?

Clauseground's combined estimate — a Dixon-Coles-adjusted model combined with a no-vig designated reference market — makes Arsenal the most likely outcome at 70%. That is a probability, not a promise: the other outcomes carry the remaining 30%.

How does Clauseground predict Arsenal vs Leeds United?

Clauseground uses an independent Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction and removes the margin from a complete designated reference market. It shows the model and market views separately, then may calculate a market-specific combined estimate. Each probability retains its source label and timestamp.

Decision support, not betting advice. No guaranteed outcomes. 18+/21+ where applicable. Gamble responsibly.

Probabilities are labeled by source — market, model, or combined. How the model works →